Confirming what many observers have concluded, the Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom says Israel may decide to stay in southern Lebanon after the 60-day withdrawal period specified in the ceasefire.
Failure to withdraw within 60 days would be another violation of the US-French-backed ceasefire agreement reached on November 27 between Lebanon and Israel.
Israel has already violated the agreement hundreds of times.
But what would Israel’s failure to withdraw from southern Lebanon mean after this 60-day period? Here’s what you need to know.
What’s going on?
Since the ceasefire, Hezbollah has stopped firing rockets at Israel and Israel has stopped its relentless bombing of Beirut’s suburbs, the eastern Bekaa Valley and the south.
But Israeli troops are still in the south, blowing up and demolishing houses and other infrastructure.
They have also prevented people from returning to their homes in the south, shot at Lebanese citizens and killed at least 33 Lebanese residents in the past month.
Israel is due to withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon within 60 days from November 27, to be replaced by UNIFIL troops and then the Lebanese army.
But Israel now claims that Hezbollah’s extensive armaments in the south and their rebuilding efforts could cause them to “reconsider” the timeline for withdrawal.
What happens if they don’t keep their promise?
Nothing.
There is no mechanism for implementing the ceasefire agreement other than a resumption of hostilities.
Western embassy sources told Al Jazeera that the only guarantees of implementation were US promises that Israel would comply.
Hezbollah may reportedly start firing rockets at Israel again, but is unlikely to want to re-engage.
Hezbollah has previously responded to Israeli violations firing a warning rocket at a military post in the Kfarchouba Hills on December 2 that landed in open space and had no casualties.
Israel retaliated by killing nine people in Lebanon.
What are the terms of the ceasefire?
Israel will withdraw all of its troops from southern Lebanon within 60 days and Hezbollah will move its military infrastructure north of the Litani River with the Lebanese Army to be deployed in southern Lebanon.
What about all the southerners who want to go home?
In the immediate aftermath of the ceasefire agreement, people left makeshift shelters – mostly set up in schools across the country – where they had been housed for more than two months.
Staff at one shelter Al Jazeera visited in Sidon, southern Lebanon, said that by 10am on the day of the ceasefire, all the displaced had gone home.
But many are not at home yet.
On the second day of the ceasefire, an Israeli military spokesman in Arabic actually announced that the entire south prohibited area.
Some people say they visited their villages on the first day of the ceasefire only to be blocked from returning afterwards.
Many southerners are either in villages as close as possible to their own villages or are staying with their families in zones that the Israelis do not occupy or deny access to.
What else happened?
On Christmas Day, Israel attacked in the Bekaa Valley between the towns of Talia and Hizzina in the Baalbek region.
Interim Prime Minister Najib Mikati called for a cease-fire monitoring committee to pressure Israel to honor the terms of the cease-fire, but this has had little effect to date.
Not only did Israel violate the ceasefire by continuing its attacks, but they also penetrated deeper into Lebanese territory.
On December 26, Israeli forces advanced to Wadi al-Hujeir, eight kilometers (five miles) from the UN Blue Line that separates Lebanon from Israel.
What is UNIFIL doing about it?
UNIFIL released a statement on December 26, calling for an end to “actions that threaten the fragile cessation of hostilities.”
It called for the “timely withdrawal” of Israeli forces and the deployment of the Lebanese Armed Forces in southern Lebanon, as well as the implementation of UN Resolution 1701, which mandates that Hezbollah move its forces north of the Litani River and Israel below the Blue Line.
UNIFIL also expressed “concern over continued destruction” by Israeli forces “in residential areas, agricultural land and the road network in southern Lebanon.”
