HONG KONG (Reuters) – China’s population fell for a third straight year in 2024, with deaths outpacing a slight rise in births, and experts warn the decline will worsen in coming years.
The National Bureau of Statistics said the total number of people in China fell by 1.39 million to 1.408 billion in 2024, compared with 1.409 billion in 2023.
Friday’s data added to concerns that the world’s second-largest economy will struggle with declining numbers of workers and consumers. Rising aged care and pension costs are also likely to create additional burdens for already overburdened local governments.
The birth rate in China has been falling for decades as a result of China’s one-child policy from 1980 to 2015, as well as rapid urbanization.
As in neighboring Japan and South Korea, large numbers of Chinese have moved from rural farms to cities, where having children is more expensive.
A 12.4% rise in marriages in 2023 – many postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic – meant there was a temporary recovery in births in 2024, demographers said. The number is expected to drop again in 2025.
