Wednesday was presented by the State Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina One -year prison sentence The leaders of Bosnian Serbian language Milorad Dodik and forbade him to perform political duty for six years. The court declared Dodik guilty of taking actions in July 2023 for the purpose of obstructing the implementation of the decision of the High Representatives in Bosnia, the best international peace envoy in the Balkan country.
The office of the High Representative (OHR) supervises the implementation of civil aspects of peace agreements in Dayton, which were signed in 1995 and ended the war in Bosnia. This office has been led by almost three decades with a number of European officials. The current head of OHR is Christian Schmidt, a former German politician. Dodik agrees with Schmidt since the arrival of the latter in Bosnia in 2021.
For domestic and international observers, a court verdict is an interesting turn and announcement of uncertainty before us. Dodik came to power as President of Republika Srpska in 2006 launched a period of permanent and continuous crises for Bosnia. In a better last two decades, he has worked to strengthen himself and political makey through which he currently presides over while undermining and erupting institutions at the state level of the country.
Compared to his record of obstructing the progress of Bosnia, not managing to comply with the decision on the Constitutional Court of Bosnia, by denying genocide and throwing repeated insults on Bosniak, Dodik’s conflict with OHR may seemed a political insult of a smaller magnia. However, the punishment, and especially the prohibition of his political life over the six years, can very well convey the beginning of the political fall of Dodik – or the renewed attempt to push Bosnia on Ivica.
In response to the verdict, the Republika Srpska Assembly adopted a document late Wednesday, dismissing the judgment of the court and Schmidt’s authority. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, preoccupied with his own problems at home in the midst of growing protests, flew the same day in Banja Luka to meet Dodik. Dodik’s lawyer indicated that he would appeal the verdict. In the meantime, the Republika Srpska Assembly adopted a draft legislation with the aim of preventing judicial and police institutions at the state level to achieve sovereignty in this part of Bosnia.
What is ahead of us is greater uncertainty. Political stability in Bosnia in the coming weeks and months could be kept in balance while the country is waiting for the appeal procedure to take place.
As things stand right now, Dodik is powerful in Republika Srpska. He controls his party – the Union of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) – and holds himself over the instruments of power, both in the Republika Srpska and at the state level through his appointment in many institutions. Its ability to create deeper crises is real.
On the other hand, he also overestimated his political welcome. Dodik has been a consolidation for almost two decades in Bosnian Serbian politics. His dominance in politics and the media means that the whole generation currently enrolled in undergraduate studies did not know any other political leader. For many Bosnian citizens, he became synonymous with crises, conflicts and unusual rhetoric.
Although media reports indicate the support of Dodik from Vucic, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Croatian President Zoran Milanovic, Dodik’s political future depends on how the state institutions of Bosnia respond, as well as the depth of his own support base. In other words, his future depends on what is happening in the field in Bosnia.
For years, Dodik has been able to generate and escalate crises to draw concessions in exchange for support. And then he continued to repeat the pattern. This has brought some politicians in Sarajevo and many foreign officials that they have been surrendering to Dodik for years for years for stability. As a result, Dodik accumulated power and resources and showed an increasing arrogance.
The firm position of state institutions in Bosnia to implement the decisions and gets up to Dodik for a long time. This is new in Dodik and maybe a key test is how much he is willing to go and how much support he actually commands.
In the coming weeks and months, three factors are likely to shape the situation that develops and, expanding, Dodik’s political future: the State Court in Bosnia, Dodik’s Base Power and Support Vucic – or their disadvantage.
If the appellant’s council rejects Dodik’s appeal and re-confirm the sentence in particular the political ban-the Bosnian Serbian-sized Serbian will be vulnerable, and this will mark another deviation with the Bosnian institutions at the state level. The ability and willingness of state institutions to implement such a court judgment will be crucial.
However, if the court annulments the verdict – including the potential external pressure for the situation in Bosnia to be pulled out of control – Dodik would ask for victory and feel reinforced.
Second, the weakened Dodik will evaluate his support within his party and among the handles of power. The growth of cracks at its power base would be a sign that the judgment of the court is undermined by his support. However, the legislation adopted on Friday adopted by the Bosnia Entity of Republika Srpska, prohibiting the National Police and Justice from Territorials, and the leader of Bosnian Serbs still has loyal fans and a large retaining of the main institutions of the Serbian Republic. Dodik could use this legislation to raise Ante and serve as a negotiating chip. He did so before.
Third, as things are currently standing, Vucic’s concern for his own domestic protests in Serbia means that he may be less willing and that there are fewer resources to divert the tension in Bosnia.
Furthermore, as with other long -standing political leaders, signs of Dodik’s political weakness can encourage the political ambitions of his patron saint or close associates to replace him. It would not be surprising if the jocker was picked up inside his party.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s and do not reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeere.
