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The UK reform has become the latest alternative party at the top of a political opinion survey at the top, after the YouGov survey placed it in front of conservatives and work, which have a centuries -old duopol on power.
Nigel Farage hopes to be a political leader who can finally break the work in Westminster. But the next general elections are not expected by 2029, and the record for the third party is not promising.
Comes of recent polls have reformed, including the YouGov poll this week, and the party is an average of 24.3 percent in a multitude of public opinion surveys for voting intentions conducted so far this year.
This puts them above the opposition conservative party at 23.1 percent, and almost the level with the Administrative Labor Party to 25.5 percent.
In most of the previous election cycles, support for third parties has fallen away as the day of choice and the main two parties have combined their base.
The question for Farage’s reform party is whether it can avoid this fate.
The Brexita Party, the predecessor of the reform, achieved a similar peak in support immediately after the 2019 European Parliament’s election – the last before the UK formally left the EU – survey of about 23 percent.
But after the accession of Boris Johnson as the leader of Tory and the British Prime Minister, the Brexit Party quickly dispelled and because of the election pact where the party withdrew some candidates from where they ran the Pro-Brexit Tories.
Conservatives won a general victory in the general election in December 2019. Brexita party won zero places.
Previous efforts to cancel a two-sided party on British politics have dried up without much permanent influence because of the first past in the UK in Britain, they can survey well, but if they do not win most of the votes in each constituency, they will come without seats.
In the early 1980s, the Social Democratic Party briefly surveyed significantly above work and Tori, but in the 1983 elections faded in third place.
Starting in the 2010 election was a similar increase in liberal democrats, which often surveyed the levels with Tories and work.
On the day of the election, Lib Dems won only 23 percent of the vote and picked up 57 places, but managed to form a coalition government with conservatives.
The last time one of the two main parties in the UK was rejected in 1922, when Labor replaced the Liberal Party as an official opposition. Tories and work remain two largest parties since then.
But there are signs that their position erodes. In the 2024 General Election, although Labour won a vast majority in terms of place, the combined share of votes for work and conservatives fell to only 59 percent, which is the lowest in the century.
Liberal democrats, reform, green and independent candidates also won a record number of seats.
The next election test will come with the local elections of England in May.
Unlike the main parties, which can count on long -established networks of local volunteers and electoral units associations that will knock on the door, the reform starts almost from zero, even if its membership has swollen in recent months.
Farage hopes that dissatisfaction with the two main parties in the UK will turn into a multitude of elected reform councilors.
