Andrew Mills and Ahmed Mohamed Hassan
DOHA/CAIRO (Reuters) – Sunday’s delayed start to a cease-fire in Gaza and incidents on Monday in which Israeli troops fired on Palestinians who approached them underscored some of the difficulties likely to face a deal that will take place in the shadow of mutual mistrust and bitterness.
Qatar and Egypt, which brokered the deal along with the US, have set up a communications hub to resolve any issues, where officials who have been working for months on the deal hope to prevent new clashes between enemies trapped in a years-long cycle of wars in Gaza.
“Such agreements are never easy to maintain,” said Majed Al-Ansari, a spokesman for Qatar’s foreign ministry.
Especially in a war zone, the situation can change very quickly, either by accident or due to the political stance of one side or the other, he said.
“Each side could see the threat as a reason to violate the parameters of the agreement and so we would have to go in and find a way to continue the ceasefire.”
With just over an hour left before the truce was due to take effect on Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel would not observe a ceasefire until Hamas handed over the names of three hostages who would be released later in the day.
The fighting continued nearly three hours past the deadline, as a Hamas official discussed the delay in a coordination room set up in Cairo, which Hamas attributed to unspecified “technical problems” with officials.
The issue was eventually resolved and the three hostages were released as scheduled in the afternoon in exchange for 90 Palestinian prisoners who were freed from Israeli jails late that night, sparking emotional scenes as they returned to their families.
“We don’t expect things to go according to plan,” said one official familiar with the talks, adding that issues of this nature are not expected to derail a process that diplomats and officials have been working on for months.
“It’s hard to believe that after all the effort the brokers put in and the assurances they got, both from the U.S. and from the brokers, that this deal is going to fail on day one,” the official said.
The multi-phase agreement will allow for an initial six-week ceasefire, during which 33 hostages will be gradually exchanged for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, people displaced from northern Gaza will be allowed to return to their homes, and Israeli troops will withdraw from some positions.
During the first phase, negotiations will begin for the release of the remaining 64 hostages, who are men of military age, and for the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops. But few expect the process to go smoothly.
OBSTACLES AHEAD
With an extremely low level of trust between the two sides who have fought each other for generations, potential pitfalls range from accidental or deliberate clashes during withdrawal periods to disputes over the identity and status of hostages to be released or returned.
Hamas has not yet said how many hostages are still alive. On Saturday, a list of the remaining 30 hostages who should be released in the first phase and whether they are alive or dead is expected to be submitted.
The Israeli military says it is trying to avoid situations where Gazans get too close to withdrawing Israeli troops. Already on Monday, soldiers shot at least eight Palestinians who approached them, doctors in Gaza said.
To prevent that, it will publish maps and guidelines as the deal progresses, clearly showing which areas should not be approached as the withdrawal progresses, an Israeli military official said.
“The areas will change as troops gradually withdraw from the Gaza Strip,” a military official said.
In Israel, the deal is viewed with deep suspicion by some who say it leaves Hamas in control of Gaza, and others who worry that it effectively abandons hostages not involved in the first phase.
Already, hardliner Itamar Ben-Gvir resigned as national security minister the morning after the ceasefire and withdrew his party from Netanyahu’s coalition, and others may follow.
Israel Public Radio reported that Israeli officials were shocked to see three hostages freed in central Gaza on Sunday get out of a car amid a large crowd of people held back by uniformed Hamas fighters, and will inform mediators that such scenes are unacceptable.
But mediators are counting on positive momentum as hostage and prisoner releases continue over the coming weeks to ease opposition.
“The images we saw yesterday of the three Israeli hostages meeting with their families, embraced by their families. These are images that would change public opinion in Israeli politics,” Ansari said. “The same goes for the Palestinian population, when they see 90 of their wives and children returning to their families.”
“These are the images that change public opinion. They put real pressure on the leadership to keep the deal.”
