BBC News, Toronto
If you had asked Canadians a few months ago who would win in the next general election in the country, most would have foreseen the decisive victory of the Conservative Party.
That outcome does not look so safe now.
In the midst of the threat of US President Donald Trump against Canada, the Liberal Party of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has grown at the polls, reducing the double -digit leadership that their conservative rivals have been constantly held since mid -2023.
The dramatic change in the political landscape of the country reflects that Trump’s tariffs and his repeated calls to become “51.” Basically changed the priorities of Canadian voters.
Trump’s rhetoric “pushed away all the other questions” at the top of Canadians before his inauguration on January 20, notes Luc Turgeon, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa.
He even managed to revive the once deeply unpopular TRUDEAU, whose approval rate has been climbed to 12 points since December. The Prime Minister, of course, will not be in power for a longer time after announcing the resignation at the beginning of the year.
On Sunday, his liberals will declare the results of the leadership competition to determine who takes over the party leading the insecure government of minorities. The new leader will have two immediate decisions: how to respond to Trump’s threats and when to call the general election. The answer to the first dilemma will surely affect the second.
Federal elections must be held on 20 or before October 20, but they could be called this week.
Polls show that many Canadians still want a change on top. But what the change would look like – a liberal government under a new guidance or a complete shift to conservatives – now everyone is guessing, says Greg Lyle, president of an innovative research group based in Toronto, which surveyed Canadians on their variable views.
“So far, it was a blower for conservatives,” he tells the BBC.
This is because the right center party led by Pierre Poilievre has been effective in messages about questions that have occupied the Canadian psyche in recent years: growing living costs, housing, crime and tense health system.
Poilievre has successfully linked these social problems to what he marked Trudeauu’s “catastrophic” policies and promised a return to the “policy of common sense”.
But with Trudeau’s resignation and Trump’s threats to Canadian economic security and even his sovereignty, it became stood up, says Mr. Lyle. His dial suggests that most of the country are now the most afraid of Trump’s Presidency and the influence they will have in Canada.
Trump’s 25% tariffs on all Canadian imports to the United States, some of which were paused by April 2, could be devastating to the Canadian economy, which in the US sends three quarters of all its products. As a result, the officials envisioned up to one million job losses, and Canada could go to a recession if the goods on goods still remain.
TRUDEAAU did not doubt how seriously he took a threat, when he told reporters this week that Trump’s said reason for US tariffs – the flow of fentanie across the border – was false and unjustified.
“What he wants to see is the complete collapse of the Canadian economy, because this will make it easier for us to say,” the Prime Minister warned.
“In many ways, this is all a comprehensive, fundamental question about the survival of the country,” says prof. Turgeon for BBC. Who is best to advocate Canada against Trump, so he became a key question in the upcoming elections.
Conservatives are still forward on the polls, and the latest average suggest 40% of voters. Meanwhile, the wealth of liberals came to life, with their supports that climbed to just over 30% – compared to 10 points since January.
Liberals tried to highlight similarities between a conservative leader and a Republican president. At last week’s leadership discussion, the candidates called Poilievre “our little version of Trump here at home” and said that he wanted to “imitate” the US president. Ad Liberal Party Stored clippings of two using similar phrases such as “false news” and “radical left”.
There are clear differences, however, between two politicians, in terms of style and substance. And Trump himself reduced any parallels, speaking to the British magazine viewer in a recent interview that Poilievre “is not enough magic.”
Still, polls suggest sliding conservative support. A recent survey of national survey Angus Reid indicates that Canadians believe that the liberal leading of the front leadership is Mark Carney better equipped to deal with Trump about the issues of tariff and trade from Poilievre.
Former Central Banker for both Canada and England gives his experience of pursuing economic crises, including the financial drop and Brexit 2008.
And a shift in a political mood forced conservatives to convert their messages.
If the choices are soon invited, the campaign will take place at the moment when Trump’s threats inspired fierce patriotism among Canadians. Many are a boycott of American goods in their local groceries or even canceling trips to the United States.
Prof. Turgeon says this “gathering around the flag” has become a key topic of Canadian policy.
Conservatives moved away from their “Canada” slogan, which Mr. Lyle says he risked that he had encountered “anti-patriotic”, “Canada First”.
Conservatives also diverted their attacks on Carney. Before Trump’s tariffs, they announced the ads, saying that “just like Justin” he was trying to bind him to Trudeau. But in recent weeks, the conservatives have started digging in Carney’s loyalty to Canada.
In particular, they questioned whether he had a role in the transfer of the Brookfield Asset Management – Canadian investment companies – from Toronto to New York when he was his chairman.
Carney replied that he had left the company by the time of the decision, but the documents about the company reported by the CBC public broadcast that the Committee approved the move in October 2024, when Carney was still in Brookfield.
The move and Carney’s equalization of his involvement with him criticized the editorial board of the national newspaper of Canada The Globe and Mail, who wrote on Thursday that Carney must be transparent with the Canadians.
In a broader sense, the work wrote: “Every party leader must realize that Canada is entering many years of uncertainty. The next prime minister will have to call the confidence of Canadians to lead the country to lead, but may not want to go.”
Considering the anxiety that echoed among the Canadians, Mr. Lyle says that any ambiguity of Carney’s loyalty to Earth could still be harmful to him and liberals.
Whenever the choices come and who wins, one thing is for sure: Trump will continue to influence and transform Canadian politics just like in the United States.
