(Bloomberg) – The bond market ended with weeks with solid gains as soft reading at retail sale of a revived bet on reducing federal reserves.
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A 10-year-old yield under 4.5%pushed a gathering in the treasury, with a bond reached its fifth week of gains-which is the longest run of 2021. Money markets are returned completely in the first decrease in FED by September. The S&P 500 hovered close to his all time. The dollar hit a fresh low for 2025.
The US retailer demolished in January at most in almost two years, indicating a sudden return of consumers after consumption in the final months of 2024. The value of buying retail, which is not adapted to inflation, decreased by 0.9% after 0.7 revised 0.7 was revised upwards. % gain in December.
“A report of consumer feelings has shown that people are nervous, and today’s number of weak retail sales confirmed,” said David Russell of Tradestation. “However, the resulting weak good news for the Fed and leaning balance a little more according to the decrease in speed.”
In interactive brokers, Jose Torres says that a report on poor consumption is to re -open the door to the potential decrease in the Fed this summer, a look that had been dimmed with a “hot pipeline” earlier this week.
S&P 500 has been a little changed. Nasdaq 100 added 0.4%. The industrial average Dow Jones dropped 0.4%. US markets will be closed on Monday for President Day. Meta platforms Inc. it grew by 20. consecutive session. Dell Technologies Inc. He jumped to the news that there were more than $ 5 billion near the server for Xai Elona Musk. Intel Corp. He fell on Friday, but was closed with his best weeks since 2000.
The yield on the 10-year treasury reduced five base points to 4.48%. The Bloomberg Dollar site index fell 0.3%.
“Consumers have strongly withdrawn for consumption after the generous holiday season, but they were still willing to open their pocket books when it comes to dining,” said Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Ellen Zentner. “This suggests that households remain safe in the economy even when politics has increased in uncertainty.”
Gary Schlossberg at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, evidence of the slowdown of activities is not enough to compensate for the recent signs of fixing inflation and switching the expectations at the early rate FED reduced.
“Did the consumers take a break?” said Bret Kenwell in Etoro. “Investors should be careful not to extract too much meaning from one data point. However, weaker retail in the middle of increasing or stubborn high inflation is a burden for US consumers and companies. It’s too early to call it a trend, but if that trend developed, it would be a worrying sign. “
Will Compenol in FHN Financial say that it is skeptical to signal a report to the true point of pursuing in consumption. Pailed with a “excessive reaction” to the manufacturer’s price index on Thursday, the bonds have shifted to “overcrowded territory,” he said.
“The positive scenario from today’s information is this: rates simple because economy is moderated, and consumer weakness is that does not affect the love affair of investors with shares,” said Steve Sosnick of Interactive Broker. “Flipside is a much worse scenario: a consumer and a government and close their wallets, influencing GDP faster than the Fed willing or capable of acting.”
A faster inflation in the US could be a “blessing in masking” for financial markets as it will force President Donald Trump to decide on smaller trade tariffs, according to Michael Hartnettu Bank of America Corp.
The strategist recommended a bond purchase, saying that a 30-year-old treasurer of treasury probably reached a perennial maximum of about 5% in January. The yield was traded close to 4.7%on Friday. Hartnett also repeated its tendency for international sections over US shares.
“The bond yields have certainly bounced around this week, and the fact that they were able to return played a big role in yesterday’s strong rally on the stock market,” said Matt Maley of Miller Tabak. “However, it seemed to have more to do with the problem of inflation than with war or tariffs.”
Considering that the stock market has been around for almost three months, any meaningful progress of this range will be quite positive on a technical basis, Maley concluded.
Analysis conducted by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. shows that the market is more than average since the beginning of 2023. Over the last six months, 74% of the typical return of S&P 500 are encouraged to be specific to the company than “macro” factors over an average of 58% in the last two decades.
“We expect the micro environment to persevere in 2025,” said Goldman strategists led by David Kostin.
Among the factors, they said that economic forecasts indicate a healthy environment of growth this year; Continued development and adoption of artificial intelligence should create differentiation among stock; Elevated policy uncertainty also suggests elevated dispersion.
“Discussions of trade, tax, fiscal and other policies represent potential catalysts for additional dispersion of refund,” they noted. “Micro-Volunteer Market creates an opportunity for active managers.”
Corporate prominent contents:
Airbnb Inc. He published a superb forecast for the first three months of 2025, citing a “continuous strong demand” after the hectic trip season.
Applied materials Inc., the largest American manufacturer of chip production equipment, has issued a lukewarm prognosis for revenue for the current period, citing the risk of export controls that intersect its business.
Coinbase Global Inc. He said that the income was more than doubled, and the profit increased more than the forecast during the abdomen inspired by Trump’s in the last quarter in the digital property.
Dell Technologies Inc. is at advanced stages of the contract of contract worth more than $ 5 billion to provide XAI Elona Musk with servers optimized to work on artificial intelligence.
Draftkings Inc. He reported about earnings in the fourth quarter that beat expectations and raised its sales guidelines for the current year.
Modern Inc. She recorded a three -month loss because the vaccine sale was gone and the company had an unexpected fee for the cancelled contract.
Palo Alto Networks Inc. He has published a disappointing chance of earning a liquid quarter, despite the rivals, including Fortinet Inc. and check point software technologies Ltd., publishing strong results.
Dela inc., Streaming-Video Platform, reported on the results of the fourth quarter that won the expectations.
Soundhound AI Inc., serving Robotics Inc. and nano-X Imaging Ltd. They collapsed after Nvidia Corp. The 13fs have indicated that the chip manufacturer has come out of his roles in companies.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. He is considering taking over the control stake in the Intel Corp. At the request of the Trump administration officer, the said person familiar with this question, how the president seeks to increase US production and maintain American leadership in critical technologies.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Supplies
S&P 500 a little changed from 4pm in New York
Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
Industrial average Dow Jones Pao is 0.4%
MSCI World Index was a little changed
Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Refund Index rose 0.4%
The Russell 2000 index has been a little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Place Index has fallen 0.3%
The euro rose by 0.2% to $ 1,0491
British pounds rose 0.2% to $ 1,2586
Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 152.32 per dollar
Crypto currency
Bitcoin rose 0.7% to $ 97,156.73
Ether rose 2.2% to 2,726.16
Bonds
Yield on a 10-year treasury reduced five base points to 4.48%
German 10-year yield is advanced one basic point at 2.43%
British 10-year yield is advanced one basic point at 4.50%
Goods
The middle raw oil of Western Texas fell 0.8% to $ 70.72 for a barrel
Spot gold fell 1.5% to $ 2,884.89 for ounces
This story was produced with the help of Bloomberg’s automation.
-With the help of John Vigloen, Sarikari Jaising, Margaryta Kirakosian, Julien Ponthus and Divya Paul.
