Lebanon’s new president has a nationalist tone amid regional changes, further weakening Hezbollah

The political picture of Lebanon underwent a dramatic change with the election of Joseph Aoun as president. After more than two years of political deadlock, Lebanese parliament on Thursday, with 99 out of 128 votes, he was elected army commander.

Aoun’s election represents a significant achievement for the anti-Hezbollah camp, reflecting the weakening influence of the powerful Shiite terrorist organization within Lebanon’s political system. Even so, experts say Hezbollah remains a formidable force in the country, and the challenges Aoun faces in balancing Lebanon’s domestic politics and foreign relations remain immense.

For much of the past two years, Hezbollah has worked tirelessly to block any movement toward electing a new president. The group strongly opposed Aoun’s candidacy. However, as the political situation developed and the expulsion from Assad from Syria Hezbollah was eventually forced to accept Aoun, who secured the presidency.

“Hezbollah opposed his election for the last two and a half years and during that time blocked any process of electing the president. Now they voted for him in the second round, which indicates that they are in a bind, that they are weaker and that their influence is not what it was.” , Middle East Institute Vice President of International Engagement Paul Salem told Fox News Digital.

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Salem points to a broader shift in regional politics, particularly the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, which has left Hezbollah increasingly isolated. “They are not alone now cut off from Iranbut they are also isolated in the region. They are the only Shiite community between this place and Basra, and they have taken over Damascus from the Sunnis, which was once dominated by a friendly Alawite, pro-Iranian regime. It is a major historical shift that leaves the Shiites and Hezbollah deeply isolated. Hezbollah’s future is worse than the present,” he added.

The US and Israel, along with other Western and Arab powers, have long tried to distance Lebanon from Hezbollah’s influence, and Aoun’s election could be a step in that direction.

Aoun, a Maronite Christian and commander of the Lebanese army, took office with a strong message focused on Lebanon’s sovereignty. In his inaugural speech, he emphasized the necessity of the state’s monopoly over the use of force.

David Schenker, former head of the US State Department’s Bureau of Middle East Affairs during the first Trump administration, noted that Aoun’s speech was both a positive and pragmatic step for Lebanon. “He talked about disarming all the groups and making sure the weapons were under state control,” Schenker said. “This was a good move, as it shows a commitment to sovereignty and the rule of law.”

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However, Schenker, who is currently a Tauba Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute and director of the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics, cautioned that President Aoun’s position does not give him absolute power in Lebanon’s political system. “The president is not the most powerful position in Lebanon. The key position will be the prime minister. It remains to be seen whether Aoun will show the same courage in his new role that he showed as chief of staff,” Schenker pointed out.

Although Hezbollah has been weakened militarily by recent Israeli campaigns and the assassination of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, among other key leaders, it still retains significant influence, particularly in southern Lebanon. However, Schenker says the organization’s ability to intimidate the Lebanese population is diminishing. “Hezbollah is not the force it used to be. It can still reactivate its killing machine if necessary, but it is no longer as dominant as before,” he said.

“Hezbollah calculated that they lost this battle against Israel, and then they lost another one battle in Syria. Therefore, it is now in their interest to remain silent, to have a president and a government acceptable to the US and the region, which at the end of the day they hope will protect them from further Israeli incursions and help their people,” Salem explained. “They need a functional government to secure international aid for the millions displaced by their actions in southern Lebanon. For them, it’s about survival, not only political, but also financial.”

Aoun’s election is not only significant for Hezbollah’s position in Lebanon, but also for the country’s relations with external powers such as the US and Israel. Lebanon faced economic collapse, its currency devalued by more than 99%, and nearly 80% of the population now lives below the poverty line. Hezbollah’s previous resistance to international pressure now appears less tenable.

The US has long supported the Lebanese military and is expected to strengthen its ties with Aoun, given his role in the military and his pro-sovereignty stance. Schenker said Lebanon’s future alignment with the US and regional allies such as Saudi Arabia could provide the country with much-needed international support.

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“The US military has been close to the Lebanese military for years,” Salem told Fox News Digital. “That was the strongest link between the US and Lebanon. So for the head of the army to come to power, he is a known person in Washington. He is known to the military, and now he is known to diplomats and politicians, and he will be known to President Trump and others over time. This realignment could put Lebanon on a much more natural path of cooperation with the US, Saudi Arabia and other regional allies.”

Israel will also be watching Aoun’s presidency closely. Schenker said Aoun’s dedication Resolution 1701 of the UN Security Councilwhich calls for disarmament in southern Lebanon, could lead to a more cooperative attitude from Lebanon towards Israel. “Israel will be invested in the Lebanese implementation of 1701,” Schenker said. “Aoun’s stance will influence Israel’s attitude toward Lebanon, as the Trump administration has clearly signaled its desire to end the wars in the region.”