Explanation – What options does Prime Minister Trudeau face in Canada’s leadership crisis? Reuters

Author: David Ljunggren

OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is increasingly likely to announce his intention to step down, although he has not yet made a final decision, a source familiar with Trudeau’s thinking said.

Trudeau has been under increasing pressure to resign since Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned amid political conflict.

Trudeau’s departure would leave the party without a permanent boss at a time when polls show the Liberals will lose badly to the official opposition Conservatives in an election that must be held by the end of October.

Here are some possible ways forward for Canada:

WHAT HAPPENS IF TRUDEAU RESIGNS?

If Trudeau resigns, the Liberals will name an interim leader to take over as prime minister, and the party will set up a special leadership convention. The challenge for the party is that these conventions usually take months to organize and if an election is held before then, the Liberals would be in the hands of a prime minister who is not elected by the members. This has never happened in Canada. Liberals could try to keep the convention shorter than usual, but that could spark protests from candidates who felt it put them at a disadvantage.

There is no way Freeland could be quickly appointed premier on a permanent basis, as tradition dictates that an interim leader not run as a party leadership candidate.

CAN HIS LIBERAL PARTY DRIVE TRUDEAU OUT?

Unlike in Britain, where party leaders are elected by a parliamentary caucus and can be quickly removed, the leader of the Liberals is chosen by a special convention of members. So there is no official party mechanism to remove Trudeau if he wants to stay.

Additionally, if members of his cabinet and a large number of lawmakers call for him to leave, he may find that his position is unsustainable.

CAN TRUDEAU BE DESTROYED BY PARLIAMENT?

Canadian governments must demonstrate that they have the confidence of the elected House of Commons. Votes on budgets and other spending are considered measures of confidence and if the government loses one, it falls. In almost all cases, the pre-election campaign starts immediately.

The lower house closed for the winter holidays in December and will not return until January 27. The government can use procedural maneuvers to avoid defeating a spending measure, but must allocate several days each session to opposition parties when they can open motions on any issue, including no-confidence motions.

Assuming the government sets opposition days at the end of the session, the most likely time for Trudeau to be ousted would be the last 10 days of March. That would trigger an election at some point in May.

IS THERE ANOTHER WAY FOR TRUDEAU TO GET OUT?

The ultimate constitutional authority in Canada rests with Governor General Mary Simon, who is the personal representative of King Charles, the head of state. She can remove Trudeau in theory, but in real life that wouldn’t happen. “The governor general will not remove a prime minister who still has the confidence of the House of Commons,” said Philippe Lagasse, a professor and constitutional expert at Carleton University in Ottawa.

WHAT ELSE COULD TRUDEAU HAVE DONE TO AVOID TARGETING?

Trudeau could adjourn parliament, which would formally end the current session and give him some breathing room. Under this scenario, the return of the House would be delayed by several weeks, allowing the government to unveil a new plan on how it plans to run the country. That would have the advantage of delaying any no-confidence vote, but could further anger Liberal lawmakers, especially if Trudeau is still prime minister.