Former Ghanaian President John Mahama won last month’s election in a landslide, but he will be under enormous pressure to live up to voters’ expectations when he takes office on Tuesday.
After more than three years of economic misery, Ghanaians want a quick solution.
Mahama returned to power after eight years in opposition, leading what political analyst Nansata Yakubu described as a “masterclass” campaign.
He defeated Vice President Mahamudu Bawumi with 56.6% of the vote to 41.6%, achieving the biggest victory by a candidate in 24 years.
Mahama’s party, the National Democratic Congress (NDC), also managed to win a large majority in parliament, securing 183 seats out of 276.
They are one seat short of the two-thirds majority needed to pass laws and approve budgets and contracts without the votes of representatives on the other side of the political divide.
The result of one representative mandate has yet to be announced due to a discrepancy. The NDC is contesting four other seats in court.
But voter turnout was lower than in the 2020 election, particularly in some heartlands of Bawumia’s New Patriotic Party (NPP), suggesting some people there – disappointed by her performance in government – stayed home.
As Mahama’s supporters celebrated his victory, Belinda Amuzu – a teacher in the northern city of Tamale, a Mahama stronghold – summed up her hopes.
“I expect the new government to change the economy, to reduce hardship. It should also prosecute corrupt officials so that it will be a lesson to others,” she told the BBC.
“Hardship” has become a common phrase in Ghana since the economy bottomed out in 2022, causing a cost-of-living crisis that tarnished Bawumia’s reputation as an “economic witch” – and led to his defeat at the hands of Maham.
However, during his State of the Nation Address on Friday, outgoing President Nana Akufo Addo said he was leaving behind a recovered economy.
“We are handing over the country with gross international reserves of almost $8bn (£6.4bn). That is more than the $6.2bn my administration inherited in 2017,” he said.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has disbursed about $1.9 billion to support the country’s economic recovery since Ghana signed up to the 2022 programme.
However, opposition MPs do not agree with Akufa Addo’s assessment.
“The people of Ghana have already given their verdict on the true state of the nation and that verdict was very clear. Economic hardship, huge debt, high youth unemployment, hopelessness and more,” said Minority MP Emmanuel Armah Kofi Boah.
Ghanaian economist prof. Godfred Bokpin told the BBC that the challenges facing the next government are enormous.
“What Ghana needs now is credible leadership, economical government and efficiency in public service delivery. Without that there can be no future,” he said.
Mahama has promised to reduce the size of the cabinet from more than 80 to around 60, but Professor Bokpin claims it should be even smaller, while political analyst Dr. Kwame Asah-Asante stressed the need for appointments to be based on merit and not loyalty.
Mahama will be joined by former Education Minister Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang, who is set to become Ghana’s first female Vice President.
dr. Yakubu said her appointment was not “tokenism” and that she was not someone who could be “manipulated”.
“We have a fantastic first female Vice President in Prof. Naani Jane Opoku-Agyemang,” she told the BBC Focus on Africa podcast.
Mahama served his first four-year term as president after winning in 2012, but lost re-election in 2016 when Nana Akufo-Addo came to power with Bawumia as his opponent.
dr. Yakubu said Mahama contested the 2016 election on the basis of his track record in building roads, schools and hospitals, but was rejected by voters because their mantra then was: “We don’t eat infrastructure.”
But, she said, during the Covid pandemic, voters began to appreciate the infrastructure built by his government, especially hospitals.
This – coupled with the fact that the economy has fallen into deep crisis under the current government, forcing it to seek a $3bn (£2.4bn) bailout from the IMF – has led to Mahama once again elected, added dr. Yakubu.
She told the BBC that Mahama is now expected to deliver on his campaign promise to create jobs to reduce the nearly 15 percent unemployment rate and ease the cost of living crisis by scrapping some taxes – or what Ghanaians call “nuisance taxes”.
Mahama has promised to turn Ghana into a “24-hour economy” through the opening of night jobs in the public and private sectors. He said he would give businessmen tax incentives to stay open at night and lower their electricity prices.
But his critics have their doubts, pointing out that Ghana was plunged into its worst electricity crisis during his first term and that power cuts were so severe that Mahama joked at the time that he was known as “Mr. Dumsor” – “dum” meaning “off” and “sor” means “he” in the local Twi language.
He has promised to scrap several taxes – including the much-criticized electronic tax on mobile transactions and one on carbon dioxide emissions from petrol and diesel vehicles.
Professor Bokpin said he doubts the Mahama administration will be able to deliver on its promises.
“They haven’t done a cost-benefit analysis. There’s no budget space to translate those promises into real things,” he said.
Prof. Bokin believes that full economic recovery and growth will take a long time.
He said: ”If you’re talking about economic transformation and inclusive productivity growth, you’re looking at probably 15 years and more of consistently doing the right things.
“In Ghana, we are not able to do the right things consistently for long. We do the right things between elections and then we screw up.”
But Mahama is confident he will prove his critics wrong, saying he intends to renegotiate the terms of the IMF loan to free up money for “social intervention programmes” in a country where 7.3 million people live in poverty.
In an interview ahead of the election, Mahama told the BBC that the IMF wanted “some balance” in government finances.
“If you can reduce expenditure, increase revenue and non-tax revenue, you will be able to create a balance,” he said.
dr. Asah-Asante said Mahama’s experience as a former president would serve him well to navigate Ghana through troubled waters.
“Of course, he will probably encounter difficulties, but he has what it takes to turn things around,” the analyst added.
Apart from the economy, corruption is one of the biggest problems facing Ghana, but not everyone is convinced that Mahama will be able to tackle the scourge.
Mahama’s previous terms in government – as vice president and president – were marred by allegations of corruption, although he has consistently denied any wrongdoing.
In 2020, a UK court found that aerospace giant Airbus used bribes to secure contracts with Ghana for military aircraft between 2009 and 2015.
An investigation was then launched in Ghana, but the Office of the Special Prosecutor concluded in a decision released just months before the election that there was no evidence that Mahama himself was involved in any corrupt activities.
The outgoing government has also been dogged by allegations of corruption, including the purchase of spare parts for ambulances at a cost of $34.9 million and the controversial national cathedral project where $58 million was spent without any progress on construction.
Mahama has promised that his government will tackle corruption and ensure that officials are prosecuted for wrongdoing.
“We are thinking about special courts,” he told the BBC.
Mahama has already launched what he calls Operation Return of All Loot (Oral), aimed at investigating government funds and assets allegedly stolen by outgoing government officials.
dr. Asah-Asante said Mahama should demand financial accountability from the outgoing government during the handover phase so that “whatever went wrong can be rectified” as soon as his government takes office next month.
The analyst added that Mahama, who will be inaugurated on Tuesday when President Akufo-Addo steps down after his two terms in office, he had no choice but to meet the expectations of Ghanaians – otherwise they would “punish his government the way they punished the NPP”.
Mahama acknowledged this succinctly in his victory speech, saying, “The expectations of Ghanaians are very high and we cannot afford to disappoint them.
“Our best days are not behind us; our best days are ahead. Forward forever – never back.”
