Trump shines insecurity – and xi jinping sees the opportunity

If China is angry with the United States due to the imposition of an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese goods, it is a good hiding job.

Both Canada and Mexico vowed to take revenge, and already Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his country “would not be withdrawn”, because he announced 25% of the charge at more than $ 100 billion (£ 81 billion) of US goods.

US President Donald Trump agreed to temporarily stop the Tarrifs of 25% on goods imported from both countries after reaching separate agreements with each of his leaders.

Beijing, however, kept a fire so far.

In 2018, when Trump launched the first of many tariff circles to target Chinese imports, Beijing stated that he was “not afraid of trade war.” This time it called on to talk and “meet China halfway.”

This does not mean that the announcement will not stab. This, especially since 10% collection adds a series of tariffs, which he imposed in his first term tens of billions of dollars of goods.

And the muffled response of the Chinese government is partly because his population does not want to worry, when many are already worried about the slow economy.

But that economy is not so relied on the US as it was then. Beijing strengthened his trade agreements in Africa, South America and Southeast Asia. He is now the largest trade partner more than 120 countries.

An additional 10% may not offer the influence that Trump wants, says Chong Ja Ian of Carnegie China.

“China will think that it can probably last 10% – so I think Beijing plays cool. Because if it’s not that big job, there’s no reason to quarrel with Trump’s administration, unless Beijing has the right benefit.”

President XI Jinping can also have another reason: he can see the opportunity here.

Trump sits a division in his yard, threatening to hit even the European Union (EU) tariffs – all in his first week in the first week. His actions may have other American allies who wonder what they are ready.

In contrast, China will want to appear peaceful, stable and perhaps more attractive to a global trade partner.

“Trump’s American politics will bring challenges and threats to almost all countries of the world,” says Yun Sun, director of the Chinese program at the Stimson Center.

“From the perspective of the US-kine strategic competition, the worsening of American leadership and credibility will use China. It is unlikely that China will turn well at bilateral level, but Beijing will surely try to make lemonade …”

As the leader of the second largest economy in the world, Xi is not the secret of his ambition that China leads Alternative world order.

From the end of the pandemic of Koida, he traveled intensively and supported the main international institutions such as the World Bank and an agreement such as Paris Climate Agreements.

Chinese state media portrayed this as accepting countries around the world and deepening diplomatic parts.

Before that, when Trump stopped us financing who China promised additional funds in 2020. Expectations are big in which Beijing could come in to fulfill American shoes again after the Washington out of WHO.

The same applies to the freezing of help that causes such chaos in countries and organizations that have long depended on the financing of the US – China may want to fill in the gap despite the economic fall.

On the first day of duty, Trump frozen all the side of the help they provided nowwhich is by far the world’s biggest assistance donor. Hundreds of foreign assistance programs that USAID Ground has been stopped by stopping. Some have been restarted since then, but the performers help describe liquid chaos because the future of the agency hangs in balance.

John Delury, a historian of modern China and a professor at Yonsei University in Seoul, says Trump’s doctrine ‘American FIRST’ could further weaken Washington’s position as a global leader.

“A combination of tariffs on the main trade partners and freezing foreign help sends a message to the global South and OECD that they are not interested in international partnership, cooperation,” he tells the BBC.

“The consistent message of the Globalization of President Xi takes on a whole new meaning while America is withdrawing from the world.”

In his offer for global management, Beijing sought the opportunity to increase the world order under the leadership of Americans in the last 50 years – and that could also be the uncertainty of Trump’s 2.0.

“Is that really a key advantage – I’m a little less sure of that,” says Mr. Chong.

“Many American allies and partners, especially in the Pacific Ocean, have reason to work with Beijing, but they also have reasons to be careful. So we saw Japan, South Korea, Filipina and Australia as they approach together, partly because of the concern that move toward toward China. “

There is a “gathering” for a possible trilateral relationship between Australia, Japan and South Korea, motivated by “the influence of another Trump administration,” according to the Australian Institute for International Affairs.

All three are worried about the assertiveness of China in the South Chinese Sea, along with the Philippines. They are also concerned about the possible war around the self -governing island of Taiwan – Peking sees it as a burglary of the province, which will eventually be part of the country and did not rule out the use of force for it.

Taiwan has long been one of the most controversial questions in the US relations, and Beijing condemned any perceived Washington support for Taipei.

But Washington may be difficult to reciprocate to the signs of Chinese aggression when Trump repeatedly threatens to the adverb of Canada or buy Greenland.

Most countries in the region have used a military alliance with Washington to balance their economic relationship with China.

But now, careful of Beijing and the usual US, they could create new Asian alliances, without any world’s greatest forces.

Trump announced Tariff’s weekend because the Chinese families celebrated the New Year and called on God’s wealth to their homes.

The light red lamps are currently swinging over the empty streets of Beijing, as most workers have gone to their hometowns during the biggest vacation of the year.

The Chinese response was far dimmed by Canada or Mexico. The Ministry of Trade has announced plans to take legal procedures and the use of the World Trade Organization to create its complaints.

But it represents a little threat to Washington. The WTO dispute solving system has been effectively excluded since 2019 when Donald Trump – in his first term then – blocked the appointment of judges who will be complained.

While the holiday is withdrawing for the close and the parties return to Beijing and work to work – they have decisions to make.

In recent weeks, officers have been encouraged by the signs that Trump’s administration might want to keep the relationship stable, especially after the two leaders had what Mr. Trump called a “big phone call” last month.

For now, China has remained calm perhaps hoping to make an agreement with Washington to avoid further tariffs and that the relationship between the two of the world’s largest economies is from spiral control.

But some believe that this cannot last because both Republicans and Democrats have come to China as the greatest foreign policy and economic threat in the country.

“The unpredictability of Mr. Trump, his impulsiveness and recklessness will inevitably lead to significant shocks in a bilateral relationship,” says Wu Xinbo, professor and director of the Center for US Studies at Fudan University.

“In addition, his team contains a lot of hawks, even extreme hawk on China. It is inevitable that a bilateral relationship will face a serious disorder in the next four years.”

China is certainly concerned about his relationship with the US and the damage that the trade war could have made to slow down the economy.

But they will also seek ways to use the current political pendulum to swing the international community its own way and within its sphere of influence.