Author: Jamie Mcgeever
(Reuters) – A view of the day ahead of us in Asian markets.
The big week for world markets begins on Monday in Asia with investors who are still getting along in the snowstorm of the title of the probable economic agenda of US President Donald Trump, while trying to evaluate whether losing a narrative about “American exception” their splendor.
The dollar fell 1.8%last week, which is his worst week of November 2023. If the dollar consolidates, it should not really be a surprise – he reached the highest level in two years earlier this month, and the net ‘long’ position of Hedge The funds were the largest in nine years.
The dollar and American shares are closely connected, raised by the huge wave of the global influx of capital, because investors are strongly betting on American artificial intelligence, technology, growth and flourishing of a return.
But if the decline in dollars is a sign that the flame of “American exception” begins to flicker, is the Wall Street ready for the cooling period?
He reached the new highest level last week and Nasdaq approached. The levels of the index are historically high, the estimates are stretched, and the risk of major events is threatening this week in the form of a FED meeting on politics and earnings ‘Big Tech’.
The study of American technology intensifies that news from Chinese launch of artificial intelligence called Deepsek is spreading. Deepseek has recently launched a free AI model of an open code that claims to be at least equal to the more established models like Chatgpt at many levels, but built with a fraction of the price.
It’s too early, but if this casts critical light on huge amounts that US technological companies spend on artificial intelligence, Wall Street could shake.
The Asian calendar on Monday is dominated by Chinese ‘official’ reports on the procurement and production sector and service sector.
Reuters survey shows that the production PMI will be unchanged compared to the previous month at 50.1. On the one hand, this would represent the fourth month of expansion in the sector in a row. This would also mean almost no growth for the second month in a row.
The data published on Friday show that last year’s profit of Chinese state -owned companies has almost disappeared, increased only 0.4% compared to the previous year. A wider information on the profit of the industrial sector should be published this week, maybe on Monday, and it is expected to confirm that 2024 was the worst year in decades.
Investors will give the court on the second day to increase the interest rate of the Japan bank on Friday. Originally, it seemed to be a “Jastreb’s jump”, but Japanese money markets still hold prices for only an additional 25 base points this year, unchanged compared to levels before Friday. This suggests that Boj guidelines were actually quite neutral, and the Japanese stock exchanges indicate strong growth on Monday.
In the meantime, the South Korean markets will be sensitive to the news that prosecutors have filed an indictment on Sunday against the recalled President Yoon Suk Yela on charges of running a rebellion with his brief introduction of an extraordinary state of December 3.
Here are key events that could give multiple guidance to markets on Friday:
– Chinese ‘Official’ PMI (January)
– Japanese leading indicator (November)
– German IFO index (January)
