Mexico is racing to provide additional housing for tens of thousands of people in cities along the US border, one of which has declared a state of emergency ahead of Donald Trump’s plan to remove a record number of migrants.
People familiar with the plans said at least 60,000 additional shelters were being prepared after the US president-elect promised the largest mass deportations in the country’s history, focusing on people in the US illegally and with criminal records.
About half of the estimated 11 million unauthorized migrants in the US are Mexican. About 662,000 non-US citizens have been convicted or face criminal charges, according to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
This week, the city of Tijuana declared a state of emergency because of the expected arrivals, while in nearby Mexicali, the mayor said the city would renovate a conference center to accommodate the people.
Two people familiar with the plans said the federal government had temporarily hoped to open 25 shelters, each with a capacity of 2,500 people, to house deported Mexicans, but has kept that plan quiet and flexible because the numbers remain uncertain.
The government declined to comment and referred the FT to President Claudia Sheinbaum’s public messages on the matter.
Trump, who is inaugurated on Monday, has threatened Mexico with 25 percent tariffs on all exports to the U.S. if it does not do more to stop migrants and drugs from crossing the border. It has legal options to deport people, including executive orders and public health restrictions.
Sheinbaum has generally reacted harsher publicly to Trump than some other world leaders, hinting at retaliatory tariffs.
The left-wing leader said her team has a plan to respond to the deportations, but did not want to reveal details too soon. The government will have to deal with the influx while implementing double-digit budget cuts for the foreign ministry and the National Migration Institute.
A planned “panic button” app for migrants to notify the nearest consulate if they believe they will be detained for deportation has yet to be launched due to technical difficulties. Additional attorneys will be present at 53 Mexican consulates in the US.
The government even released a a new nationalist anthem for migrants.
“We have been working for months, since President Trump announced this, to accommodate our citizens in the best possible way,” Sheinbaum said this week. “Of course, we don’t agree [with the deportations].”
Trump’s tough stance on the border was one of the drivers of his election victory in November, after crossings into the US reached record levels during Joe Biden’s presidency. But Mexico’s action at the behest of Washington, along with expanded legal routes, has reduced irregular crossings in the past year.
The US has carried out deportations for most of its history, with a record number removed in fiscal year 2012 under President Barack Obama, when ICE deported more than 409,000 people. In fiscal year 2024, Biden removed more than 271,000 people, according to US government data.
However, both the scope and profile of migrants to be deported could now change significantly.
During Trump’s first term, Mexico welcomed migrants from around the world, initially those awaiting asylum claims and later those who were returned across the border during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Sheinbaum suggested this month that she would be open to accepting other nationalities, but it is not clear whether Mexico will take back citizens deported from inside the US, as well as those near the border.
Returning migrants to their home countries presents additional legal and practical difficulties for the US where those countries are repressive regimes or do not have a friendly relationship with Washington.
“If a Venezuelan or Nicaraguan is arrested in Chicago after spending five years in the US, and it is impossible to fly them to Caracas or Managua, will the administration expect Mexico to take them in as well?” said Adam Isacson, director of defense oversight at Washington’s Office for Latin America.
The numbers may not rise immediately as Trump faces challenges including a lack of detention space, flights and the cooperation of some law enforcement agencies.
Chad Wolf, Trump’s former acting secretary of homeland security, suggested the initial goal might be to exceed Obama-era deportation levels.
“My guess is if I can win that in the first year, then it’s a win,” he told the FT. “They’re going to have to scale it to a place where it hasn’t been scaled before . . . all of that will take time.”
The economic and social consequences of the program could be significant for both parties. US industries such as construction and agriculture rely on undeclared labor, while remittances to Mexico were worth $63 billion in 2023 — more than foreign investment or tourism.
People working with migrants in Mexico said thousands of people would be vulnerable to recruitment by gangs if they were dumped in northern cities where organized crime reigns.
Mexico has historically lacked the infrastructure to reintegrate returning citizens, says Maggie Loredo, an activist who works with deported migrants in Mexico.
“There’s really nothing for people who have been incarcerated,” she said. “These people are also in more vulnerable conditions.”
Andrew Selee, director of the Washington-based Migration Policy Institute, said additional deportations will require shelters, transportation, IDs, job fairs and mental health resources.
“The Mexican government[does]. . . they have to be ready during the next six months,” he said, adding that it was necessary to “find ways to integrate migrants from other countries who will be stuck in Mexico.”
