Florida orange juice. Whiskey from Tennessee. Kentucky peanut butter.
Canada is preparing for an all-out trade war with its closest ally and one of its top brass trading partners, and the list of American goods that could be affected is long.
Canadian officials are preparing a three-phase plan of retaliatory tariffs and other trade restrictions against the United States, which will be triggered if President-elect Donald J. Trump follows through on his threat to impose overall tariffs of 25 percent on all Canadian goods imported into the United States.
Canadian officials will wait until Mr. If Trump doesn’t make his move — which he said will be his first day in office, Monday — then he will begin imposing tariffs. They would most affect C$37 billion ($25.6 billion) in consumer goods, according to two senior government officials familiar with the plans.
They spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss details of the plans, which are to remain private for now.
Goal: Maximum political pain
Canadian officials said their choice of merchandise was meant to be precisely targeted and aimed at political influence. In particular, they want to focus on goods made in Republican or swing states, where the pain of tariffs, such as pressure on jobs and the bottom line of local businesses, would affect Trump’s allies.
The Canadian government is hoping that those allies, including governors or members of Congress, will then pick up the phone and call Mr. Trump, intervening in favor of de-escalation.
Mélanie Joly, Canada’s foreign minister, who spent Thursday and Friday in Washington, met with a number of Republicans to outline her country’s views, including Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Sen. Jim Risch of Idaho and Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota.
Ms. Joly said she hoped her address to senior Republicans would persuade them to intervene to prevent or limit a trade war and its negative impact on consumers and jobs on both sides of the border.
“My job here is to be able to talk about the facts, and that comes before any threat of counter-tariffs from our side,” Ms. Joly said in an interview with The Times on Thursday. “Because then senators might say, ‘Well, why are we doing this? Why do we impose tariffs? It affects my electorate.’”
But, she added, Canada was ready to vigorously defend its interests if necessary. “Never underestimate Canadians,” she said. “We fight very hard and we are very brave. We are ready to be surgical and fit to impact American jobs.”
Preparing for the first day Mr. With Trump in office and what he might bring for Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his cabinet will gather Monday and Tuesday in what some are calling their “American war room,” so they can react quickly if the U.S. tariffs are announced.
The detailed list of goods is carefully maintained, but includes dozens of consumer goods from different categories, such as food and drink, as well as other types of everyday products, including dishwashers and porcelain products such as bathtubs and toilets.
Depending on which Canadian goods Mr. Should Trump decide to impose tariffs and the level of those tariffs, Canada’s second move would be to extend its own tariffs to more American products, affecting $150 billion worth of imports from the United States.
As part of its strategy, the Canadian government is also considering other measures that would limit exports of Canadian goods to the United States, such as export quotas or tariffs that would be borne by the US side. That type of measure would be reserved for particularly sensitive Canadian exports that the United States relies on, such as the Quebec hydroelectric power used to power all of New England.
Tariffs act more like a tax on goods and are usually passed on to consumers. They make imported goods more expensive, and this often means that consumers stop buying them, which ultimately hurts the foreign companies that export them.
Trade restrictions such as export quotas aim to limit the availability of export goods, and are particularly effective when the importing country does not have readily available or sufficient alternative sources for those goods.
Back from the brink
Regardless of how the Canadian counter-tariffs or export restrictions are implemented, the goal will be the same: to pressure the Trump administration to back away from the president-elect’s pledge to launch a devastating trade war against the United States’ neighbor.
Trade relations between the two countries are huge, with nearly $1 trillion in goods exchanged each year. Canada fluctuates with Mexico as the United States’ largest trading partner depending on the price of oil.
Some cross-border industries are so integrated that tariffs would suddenly pose a major regulatory headache for many companies. One vehicle, for example, crosses the US-Canada border up to eight times before it is fully assembled. Tariffs would immediately shut down auto production lines across the United States and Ontario, the heart of Canada’s auto industry.
And Canada exports vital goods to the United States. About 80 percent of Canada’s oil and 60 percent of its natural gas is exported to the United States. More than half of the oil imported into the United States comes from Canada.
The third and final level of escalation if the US-Canada trade war escalates, which the Canadian government is eager to avoid, would restrict exports of hundreds of billions of dollars worth of sensitive goods, including oil and gas, potash, uranium and critical minerals. These are all exports that are key to the United States
Alberta, Canada’s biggest oil exporter, said it did not support measures that would affect its key industry. The rift between the province’s leadership and the rest of the country could become more consequential if Canada decides that oil must be used as leverage against the United States.
Canada’s planning for a potentially prolonged U.S. trade war also includes support for domestic industry, according to one senior official.
The government is preparing for the possibility of a financial bailout of Canadian companies hit hard by U.S. tariffs, most likely on a case-by-case basis, the official said.
While a massive bailout or blanket bailout of entire industries may not be on the table, the official said it would be unthinkable to let a tariff war with the United States destroy thousands of jobs and businesses without the government stepping in to cushion the blow.
