Windsor Tips: Jamie Lynch’s Guide to Friday’s Fitzdares Sovereign Handicap Hurdle | Racing news
Senior form analyst Jamie Lynch is looking forward to a big betting contest on the first day of the Berkshire Winter Million at Windsor on Friday, live on Sky Sports Racing.
The Fitzdares Sovereign Hurdle Handicap at 15.35 is as strong as any Premier Handicap in Britain so far this season.
Four horses are rated higher in this than the top weight at Greatwood, and there’s a quantity to go with it, with just one of the 14 weights. Let’s take a deeper look at the field.
1. Brentford Hope
Jockey: Paul O’Brien | Coach: Harry Derham
Once upon a time entered the Arc. Runner-up in the Grade Two Elite on his re-emergence, and arguably up to that level, but big field handicaps are his bag, highlighted by his print last season, an excellent second (of 24), also under top weight, to Daddy Long Legs at Punchestown Festival.
He is thought to be booked for this valuable prize, at a track that should suit him very well indeed, given his strong traveling style.
2. Hansard
Niall Houlihan | Gary & Josh Moore
There’s still a sense of unfinished business about him, partly because he’s only had eight races in three seasons over hurdles, after a full year of a promising fourth at Kempton over Christmas, he went down at 11/1 but has been switching runs at 2/1, telling how he was traveling before his absence overtook him.
He beat Brentford Hope among others at Newbury last season, in a similar line-up to here, and the only previous time he has been in double figures has resulted in two wins and a fourth in Grade One.
3. Cabral Du Mathan
Harry Cobden | Paul Nicholls
The fast-improving five-year-old won his first three races before being beaten only narrowly by Fiercely Proud in the Ladbrokes Hurdle at Ascot, when the pair finished 17l. This left the handicapper with little option but to increase it by 8lb, although there were more pulling forces in the race than just springs on the top two.
He also reflects on how tough a race he had at Ascot less than four weeks ago, potentially impactful for such a young man, but that is hypothetical and his pillars of positivity are evident.
4. Knickerbockerglory
Harry Skelton | Dan Skelton
The Fresh Prince, who won first time out for the third successive season, beating Nemean Lion at Sandown, conceding 18lb and an easy lead on heavy ground, resulting in a career-high 139, when he later struggled with mid-130s in the last few campaigns. The heuristic model of using past behavior to predict the future is a danger to Knickerbockerglory and the coming lull.
5. Beat The Bat
Bryan Carver | Harry Fry
It’s easy to say he’s ahead of the mark, based on his second run with Dysart Enos (giving her a mares allowance) at the end of his last campaign in tandem with a handicap debut at the start of this one, runner-up in a high-quality race at Haydock and quantities. The stable won Sovereign’s only previous run going forward, with Metier, and Beat The Bat arguably has his prime ahead of him after just seven races.
6. Cracking Rhapsody
Craig Nichol | Ewan Whillans
The Ewan Whillans gelding has a happy habit of upping his game with every race, as his surface stats of 5/12 speak for, although the only time he set foot outside Scotland or the North was a rather harrowing experience at Cheltenham this season. Greatwood (finished 10th at 33/1). He has since bounced high from his beloved Kelso, but is back swimming in a very different pool, and more so than ever in a handicap.
7. Givemefive
Michael O’Sullivan | Harry Derham
Givemefive was target-trained to win the highly valued four-year-old event at Cheltenham in October, before his limitations were revealed in the Grade Three at Fairyhouse next month, in a jet wind from the exciting Anzadam.
This will be his first handicap over hurdles, and the only question is whether he is worth 132, still relying on his Adonis second for that. I made him second or third in the stable behind Brentford Hope.
8. Go Dante
James Bowen | Olly Murphy
Idi Dante was in form last term and won the Imperial Cup in style and is now just 1lb taller. However, that is due to some shifted standards so far this season, having pulled up unnervingly in the Ladbrokes Hurdle when tried without his usual cheeks ( return here ). It could be a case of Father Time meeting Mother Nature at the age of nine.
9. Hardy Du Seuil
William Featherstone (7) | Jamie Snowden
He is paid, but one win in the last three years tells the story, and the fact remains that he is 0/8 of the ratings in the 130s, hurdles and fences, often in a smaller handicap than this. A second appearance at Carlisle shows that all his abilities and appetite are intact, but he’s biting off more than he can chew in this company.
10. Court in Law
Harry Reed | Harry Derham
Harry Derham’s charge has few faults and flaws, but can be destructive when unleashed at the helm, as was the case on his return to Market Rasen where he gave his supporters no worries despite his signature stargazing. The problem is that this competition is much tougher, including the lead (with Knickerbockerglory in the line-up), and he threw in the towel last spring in a similarly hot handicap (Novice Final at Sandown).
11. Unlucky Eric
Kielan Woods | Jonjo & AJ O’Neill
Wreckless Eric is fast on the rise having beaten 26 of 27 opponents in the Cheltenham Handicap in his last two starts. Only Mirabad, who drove enterprisingly, was for him in a race that did not reach the bottom of Wreckless Eric, who again dropped out. This will test the theory that the better the race, the better he will be, but he is definitely in that mold. There’s no telling how high he could go, considering he’s only five years old and has only six races. A good gallop would help reveal his latent talent.
12. Navajo Indy
Gavin Sheehan | Tom Symonds
In the game, his confidence is high, but so is his mark after a successful handicap debut in the Gerry Feilden at Newbury, up 8lb, when the race was easier than it looked (few entered it).
It’s not just a recalibrated rating, as the track and pace will be different here, but what might be most important of all is that no horse in the field comes in hotter than him.
13. Secret squirrel
Nico de Boinville | Hughie Morrison
This horse was undoubtedly the moral winner in the Ladbrokes Hurdle at Ascot as he continued to go far better and far longer than the others who pushed forward and was booked for third place when he started last. He has to recover from a hard crash and a tough race, which will be easier said than done.
All the same, Ascot gave rise to a feeling that there was still in him that greater effect which had long since been threatened.
14. Tour Ovalie
Isabel Williams (3) | Evan Williams
The Tour Ovalie is going from strength to strength and bagged a hat-trick at Newbury, where she did very well to catch Break My Soul when nothing else came close to the low-priced favourite. However, she has a mountain to climb from the handicap, carrying 6lb more calmly than her re-assessed rating.
Judgment by Jamie Lynch
This is a race full of improvers, but the challenge is to find one with even more up his sleeve, and the best in that regard may be the five-year-olds Unlucky Ericwho would have won his second successive handicap at Cheltenham had he not had an inspired ride on Mirabad. His late style also lends itself well to the race map.
Watch every race on day one of the Berkshire Winter Million at Windsor live on Sky Sports Racing (Sky 415) on Friday 17 January.
