A long-awaited ceasefire in Gaza may stop the killing, but it will not end the conflict
The ceasefire is a significant achievement. It’s been a long time.
Versions of the agreement have been on the table since May last year. Hamas and Israel accuse each other of the delays.
Israel’s response to the October 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas that killed around 1,200 people, most of them Israeli civilians, left Gaza in ruins. Most of Gaza’s population of over two million have been displaced.
According to the Hamas-run health ministry, Israeli strikes have killed nearly 50,000 people, both combatants and civilians. A recent study in the medical journal Lancet says that may be a gross understatement.
The first major challenge is to ensure that the ceasefire is maintained. Senior Western diplomats fear that after the first phase of 42 days, the war could continue.
The war in Gaza had enormous consequences in the Middle East.
It did not, as many feared, lead to an all-out war in the region – thanks to the Biden administration – but it did lead to a geostrategic upheaval.
Hamas can still fight, but it is a shadow of what it used to be.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defense minister have been indicted for war crimes before the International Criminal Court.
The International Court of Justice is investigating a case brought by South Africa accusing Israel of genocide.
After Hezbollah in Lebanon got involved in the war, it was eventually crushed by an Israeli offensive.
This was the factor that led to the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.
Iran and Israel exchanged direct attacks – weakening Iran. His network of allies and proxies, which Tehran has dubbed the Axis of Resistance, has been crippled.
The Houthis in Yemen have halted much of the shipping traffic between Europe and Asia that passes through the Red Sea – it remains to be seen whether they will keep their promise to stop the attacks now that there is a ceasefire in Gaza.
As for the long conflict between Israel and the Palestinians – it is as bitter as it has ever been.
A ceasefire could, with luck, stop the killing and return Israeli hostages and Palestinian detainees and prisoners to their families.
There is no end to the conflict that is more than a century old.
