The Canadian liberals are declining after years of falling. What is happening? | News about politics

Montreal, Canada – Just a few months ago, the Canadian ruling Liberal Party seemed ready for a residual defeat of the 2025 election.

Public opinion surveys have shown Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s party who has coated opposition conservatives by as much as 26 percentage points.

The accessibility crisis and a widespread aversion to Trudeau caused the support of the liberal to fall and The calls are growing to keep the Prime Minister the prime minister to resign at federal vote.

However, experts say that political tide changes due to a series of factors, including Trudeau’s decision to resign, a liberal leadership race that increased the momentum of the party and the repeated threat of US President Donald Trump against Canada.

Liberals quickly narrowed the gap behind the conservatives, according to recent research, with One poll Posted last week, showing a party with the leadership over Torija for the first time since 2021.

“Two months ago, the liberals were on ropes, and many believed they were politically finished,” said Semra Sevi, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Toronto.

“Now they are again.”

Trudeau’s resignation

Trudeau’s decision in early January Move away as a prime minister And the leader of the Liberal Party after his replacement is being selected is one of the main factors responsible for changing the wealth of the party, experts for Al Jazeera said.

Trudeau, who was the prime minister Since 2015They faced the years of training public anger for treating the Pandemia of the Coid-19, as well as rapidly jumping apart the prices of apartments and a crisis of living costs.

The Prime Minister and his party also failed to effectively counteract the years of attacks on the growing conservative party and her fiery brand Leader, Pierre Poilievrewho promised a change as he blamed Trudeau for all Canada.

When Trudeau stepped down, the political dynamics changed, said Darrell Bricker, IPSOS Executive Director of Public Affairs, a company that published a survey of the end of February, which has been Liberal with the first leadership in four years.

Bricker explained that some voters joined the conservative camp for a desire to change than support for the party’s agenda or Poilievre.

“Now [they are] We think there could be another option to change, “Bricker told Al Jazeera.” And that’s Mark Carney. “

Carney, former Governor of the Canada Bank, is Leader in the race Replace Trudeau as a leader of the Liberal Party and an extension, as the next prime minister of Canada.

The race helped restart the liberal base and attracted the attention of national media, increasing interest in the party.

“Mark Carney Whether this new car smelled of it and people are truly interested in the test ride, “Bricker told the leadership competition, which he will decide on March 9th.

Conservative message

At the same time, the Conservative Party seems to be struggling to divert his messages in Post-Trudeau Eri Canadian politics.

“One of the things that Poilievre was very successful in the space in the past two years was the characterization of the liberal record in the way the Canadians learned to oppose what liberals do,” Bricker said.

Poilievre has successfully had Vilified Trudeau He added especially. “But what happened is because the Prime Minister does not have, so you can’t still blame him.”

Poilievre and Conservatives tried to bind Carney, who had previously been Trudeau’s economic advisor, but was never elected member of Canada as a parliament for the Liberal Government records.

They called it a “carbon carbony tax” in relation to the unpopular, liberal government Program Price of Carbon That Carney publicly supported, but has since said he was planning to abolish if he was elected.

Poilievre also regularly attack “Carney-Trudeau Liberal” on social networks.

But Bricker said that in the last few weeks, Canadians have been less interested in the last 10 years of liberal policies than what is happening today – especially since it refers to the United States.

Trump’s factor

Indeed, the statements that came out of the White House since Trump took office on January 20th, perhaps the most important factor in the re -rise of liberals, Analysts say.

For months the US president threatened Levy steep tariffs Imports from Canada in a move that experts say would be devastated by the Canadian economy.

Trump followed the plan this week, because his large, 25 percent tariffs on most Canadian goods entered into force in the early hours of Tuesday. Ottawa replied by putting reciprocal measures against the US, stimulating the fear of Trade war.

Tariff, together with Trump’s repeated pressure to become Canada 51. The US state has encouraged a wide anger and an increase in Canadian nationalism. Many Canadians now invite the country to separate from the US, which they no longer see as a stable ally.

Genevieve Tellier, a political science professor at Ottawa University, said the so-called “voting issue” in the Canadian elections would no doubt that the party is most appropriate to respond to Trump and the management of links from Canada-US.

“Ago [the focus] Did the liberals beat conservatives? “Tellier said Al Jazeeeri.” This is not the case now, but more about economic leadership, this is how you react [the] Americans? “

Poilievre’s combat style served him well in the opposition, she explained, but some Canadians are now questioned if he can gather people.

“The problem for Poilievre is that he often says the same as Donald Trump,” Tellier added. “There are many things we see some similarities on.”

In the meantime, Trudeau’s united approach to Canada, the threats of the US president, accepted the Canadians well, which helped liberals. “And once the government He behaved quicklyWhich was really the case before, “Tellier said.

Early menu?

Meanwhile, as Canadian anxiety still exists around the policy of Trump’s administration, The time of federal elections has taken over new importance.

The elections must be held until October 20, but liberals – as a party in the Government – can start voting before that.

Sevi at the University of Toronto said that inviting elections shortly after their new leader was selected on March 9th. party Maintain your momentum, “especially with pressure to address tariff threats and economic problems such as housing and inflation.”

Tellier said that an early election call would also allow liberals to avoid some potentially sticky political decisions.

Troupe suspended parliament In early January, when he announced he was leaving. He is ready to continue at the end of March.

If the legislators return to the House of Representatives, the next liberal leader would have to form a cabinet and give a speech in which they will prioritize new minority governments and both could prove to be controversial.

“If you call early elections, you don’t have to do all these things,” Tellier said.

Finally, whenever the vote is scheduled, experts agree that Canada is moving into a very different competition from the one that was scheduled just a few months ago.

“The choices are formed as much more competitive than expected,” Sevi told Al Jazeera, “with foreign policy, leadership and economic issues that play the main roles.”