Peacemaker or peaceful breakthrough? Why the reputation of a good neighbor Kenya was stunned | News about politics

Working day in February, politicians and military people packed themselves in the popular Center for events in the central business district of Nairobi and came to a consensus over the formation of a new government.

But instead of the red and black Kenyan flag, Sudanska decorated the hall. Instead of the Kenyan politicians, all who were sitting were associated with the Sudanese support forces (RSF), a paramilitary group whose current war with the Suda Armed Forces (SAF) broke the country.

A huge appearance – from the Sudanese government and people, as well as several foreign governments, including Turkiya and Saudi Arabia – followed the RSF moves. However, anger is also focused on the Kenyan government for seemingly supporting paramilitary. The Government under the leadership of SAF, currently headquartered in Port Sudan, recalled in February of her ambassador to Kenya. When the RSF reunited to Nairobi last week to sign the “transitional constitution”, SAF did not change the words.

“These clear positions confirm the irresponsible attitude of the Kenyan Presidency in the acceptance of the RSF genocidal militia,” the SAF statement said in a statement on Sunday, adding that Kenya is “Rogue State”.

RSF -ovi Signing the “Charter of the founding of the Sudan” Last month, it races the path to the parallel government in the territories held by the RSF, including parts of the capital, Khartoum and the Western region of Darfur.

For analysts, the fact that such division is allowed in Nairobi means that Kenya is not neutral.

“In football language, this is a diplomatic goal of his own goal,” said Abdullah Bora Halakhe, a Kenyan expert in politics who also works for the International Refugees, for Al Jazeera. The consequences of such a move in the reputation of Kenya are expensive and the damage will “take a while to repair,” he added.

It is just the latest diplomatic accident that President William Ruto has recently entered. Conflicts with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) because of the hosts of rebel groups in Nairobi at the end of 2023. Analysts said that Ruto’s positioning in two events is a significant turn of policy for a country that is once viewed as an impartial regional leader in which peacetime negotiations once held between warring fractions in Somalia and at one point Sudan.

District in Sudan?

Fighting in Sudan first broke out in April 2023. After Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti“Dagalo, RSF leader and General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, head of the SAF, have fallen out. The two leaders had previously participated in a state -stroke that ended the transitional government involving civilians, but the subsequent struggle for power ended their covenant.

More than 60,000 people were killed in the war and 11 million were displaced. Both sides of the United Nations accuse of possible war crimes in battle. However, there are more serious accusations against the RSF, whose fighters are mostly from the Darfur nomadic “Arab” tribes. The UN said last year that the RSF led a “horrific” campaign against seating “non -Arab” Masalitic people in Western Darfur, and attacks could be “genocide indicators”. In January, the United States declared that the RSF commit “genocide” and targets people “on the ethnic basis”.

While Egypt and inter -government authority for development (Igad), the coalition of northeastern Africa, which includes Kenya and Sudan, tried to negotiate peace negotiations, they were generally unsuccessful.

After the first meeting of the RSF Nairobi in February, the Government of Kenya defended itself against a return strike from Sudan and opposition politicians at home. In a statement, Foreign Minister Musalia Mudavadada said Nairobi actually plays a peaceful role.

“Moving the folder of the road and the proposed leadership by the RSF and the Sudanese civilian groups in Nairobi is in line with the role of Kenya in peace negotiations, which requires not to not be asked for party platforms for the Conflict Party,” said Mudavadad.

But some Sudanski did not agree. Although there were civil groups at the RSF meetings, including some from Darfur, Sudanese political analyst Shaza El Mahdi said that since SAF is not present, any peace negotiations will be null and void.

“I don’t buy it at all,” El Mahdi told Al Jazeera about a statement by the muddady. “For RSF, this meeting with civilians is more with the branding thing that will wash their image. This signals us large alarms as Sudanese because the RSF puts the first stone into the line that Darfur will divide from the rest of the country. It is a divided move.”

In addition, RSF probably used Nairobi as a launcher to create some form of legitimacy, added an analyst, who works for the International Private Company Center. The move, however, influenced how the Sudans perceive the Kenyan government, she said.

“I personally do not support RSF or SAF because both sides were perpetrators and should face justice,” El Mahdi said. “But then many Sudan people prefer SAF and see it as a better alternative, and now people believe that Kenya supports RSF against Sudan.”

Some observers pointed to the “friendship” between Ruto and Hemedti as one possible reason for Nairobi’s seemingly friendship with RSF.

In January 2024, Ruto hosted Hemedti, who was on a regional tour and was welcomed by both Uganda and Ethiopia on the escape of the SAF Government. Then talk about the “Bromance” between Ruto and Hemedti intensified after Ruto traveled to Juba to South Sudan for a national visit in November. On the presidential aircraft with Ruto was Hemedti’s brother and the deputy commander of the RSF, Abdulrahim Dagalo, whom he now sanctioned for his role in the war.

Others, however, pointed to the recent economic agreement between Kenya and the United Arab Emirates, whose government is believed to support RSF Though it denies this. The deal signed in January will see double investments of UAE in Kenya. Already, Nairobi is waiting to receive 1.5 billion UAE loans to fund the budget deficit that happened from the borrowing of Spree during the previous administration.

Peace troops and “high -waisted pants”

In December 2023, in a similar way to the Sudanese debacle, Nairobi hosted the leader of the rebel from DrC, causing a deep order between the two countries, even while the Kenyan government insisted that he was trying to achieve peace.

In the midst of a creeping progress during the M23-Published Group, which UN said she supported Rwanda and seized the key East cities of Drc-a-Germany in recent weeks, Bertrand Bisimwa met with Corneille Nanga, a former former election, overturning, announced the political alliance. Their news came from the leader of the Nairobi Hotel.

These amazed political observers not only because of Bisimwa, but also because at that time, Kenyan soldiers were leading peace troops from the East African community (EAC) to impose an earthquake truce between the army of DRCs, including M23.

Several problems have already emerged between Nairobi and Kinshas via m23. Drc has accused the peace forces led by Kenian for months, who were first deployed in November 2022, for “communion” with rebels.

This is because Kinshas wanted Eac troops to face and stop M23 – his biggest headache. However, the strength under the leadership of Kenya refused to go to the offensive, claiming that his mandate was only supervised by the withdrawal of armed groups and carried out the agreed appearances. The tensions grew. In parts of DRC, protests and riots broke out as the angry Congoov attacked peace forces from EAC, as well as the UN because he did not stop the M23 violence. In December 2023, Congole President Felix Tshisekedi sent a pack of EC forces.

It was on that background that the M23 head arrived in Nairoba. In angry statements after the meeting, Kinshas ordered Ruto to arrest the two leaders of the rebels, but that request was rejected.

“Kenya is a democracy,” Ruto replied in a statement. “We cannot arrest anyone who issued a statement. We do not arrest people for making statements, arrest criminals.”

Now just a year later, the M23 seized the main eastern cities of Gom and Bukava. The war displaced hundreds of thousands of conges, and at least 7,000 people were killed by a fight intensified in January, according to Government DRC.

“How does someone trying to mediate in peace can also receive people who have accepted against Congoan?” Cambaale Musavuli, a Congolian advocate of human rights and an analyst with the US Center for Researching Congo-Kinshas, ​​he told Al Jazeera.

“No matter what Ruto could give, I think he tried to get into the Kong’s questions. The man will ask himself if a belligerent Kenyan citizen who has picked up a weapon is allowed to organize a press conference in Kinshasi, would Kenya answer the same way [that Ruto did]?? “

Many Congoons, they continued Musavula, but did not like Ruto for “close friendship” with President Rwand Paul Kagame and for the perceived “attached” attitude towards the country.

The analyst was related to Gaffe Ruto made while on the trail of the 2022 campaign, which angered the diplomat DRC, injured many Congoles. In an interview with a multitude of small business owners, Ruto promised more agricultural revenues because he planned to open Avenues for sale of DRC cattle, saying that “they have a population of 90 million but do not own any cows.” Ruto also called Congo, a people who “wear high -waist pants”, referring to style common in congenocone music videos. He later apologized for the gaffe after the Congo’s politicians expressed anger.

“When the elections for Ruto took place, we did not root for Ruto in the DRC. We wanted an alternative because we already knew his attitude towards us,” Musavula added.

From a peace guard to a side investor?

Long before today’s shooting with neighbors, Kenya was understood once in East Africa as an intermediary of peace.

In 2004, under the guidance of President Mwai Kibaki, a warring faction in war -lit Somalia gathered in Nairobi to agree to an agreement that would form a federal parliament and end the bloody civil war that raged and excluded from the fall of dictator Mohamed Siad.

Just a year later, Kenya again led and led the host of the Sudanese comprehensive peace agreement, a peaceful framework that helped end the Sudanese civic conflict and eventually ran the way to establishing the nation of southern Sudan in 2011.

Now under Ruto’s administration, it seems that Kenya not only struggles to support the picture, but also to actively create problems, analysts said. An apparent alliance with not once, but two sides of the armed faction since Ruto took over the post in 2022, has harmed the former regional position of Kenya as a country with diplomatic power and weakened its reputation by a fair interlocutor, experts claim.

Even from the inside, Kenya swung tensions that were not seen from the post-exhibit crisis in the country. Protests under the leadership of young people prepared the country in June and July last year, while thousands marched against the routine plans for larger taxes. For weeks, protesters were shot by Kenyan police. At least 50 people were killed, hundreds of injured and Many others are still missingaccording to the Kenyan National Commission for Human Rights. Kenyans on social media are still urging Ruto to step down with hashtag: #ruutomustgo.

“Sudan and Drc exhibited diplomatic Achilles of Pete Kenya,” Halakhe said. “For all its internal fractional policy, the Kenyan foreign policy is not particularly principled by self-employment.”

Everything that has changed, he added.

“Now [Kenya] He took the sides. Of the place of negotiating peace processes to now deal with the washing of genocide, the steep decline in the Keni diplomatic prestige is a steep. “