Under President Trump planThe United States would manage gauze and expel their residents. Under Arabic planGaza would run Palestinian technocrats in a wider Palestinian state. One each Israeli proposalIsrael would give up some control of the Palestinians, but blocked Palestinian statehood. Per moreIsrael would occupy the entire territory.
Since the introductory weeks of the war in Gaza, politicians, diplomats and analysts have given many proposals on how it could end and who should subsequently manage the territory. These proposals became the number and relevant after sealing a tribute in January, increasing the need for clear post -war plans. And when Mr. Trump suggested that it forcibly transfer the population later that month, it encouraged the pressure on the Middle East to find an alternative.
Problem? Each plan contains something unacceptable either to Israel or Hamas, or for Arab countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, which some hope to fund and partially monitor the future of Gaza.
“The devil is in detail and no detail in these plans makes no sense,” said Thomas R. Nides, a former ambassador of the United States in Israel. “Israel and Hamas basically opposed attitudes, while parts of the Arabic plan are unacceptable to Israel and vice versa. I am for people who suggest new ideas, but it was very difficult for anyone to find a common country unless the dynamics change significantly. “
The central challenge is that Israel wants Gaza without Hamas, while the group still tries to retain its military wing, which led to the attack in October 2023.
Mr. Trump’s plan would satisfy many Israelites, but it is unacceptable to Hamas and Arabic partners of the United States, who want to avoid a process that International lawyers say would be a war crime.
Arab alternative – which was announced last week in Egypt – would allow Palestinians to stay in Gaza, transferring power to the Technocratic Palestinian government. But either foggy about how to remove the Hamas from powerAnd it was conditioned by the creation of the Palestinian state, which most Israelites opposed.
The statement is that despite the Stock Exchange since January, the Israelis and Palestinians are not closer to the Gaza Future Agreement than they were at the beginning of the year.
In turn, this increases the risk of a renewed war.
The secondary fire agreed that in January it was technically needed to last only six weeks, the period last March. For the time being, both sides have an informal truce as they continue negotiations – Egypt, Qatar and the United States are mediated – for formal extension.
But this goal seems far away because Hamas wants Israel to accept the post -war plan before publishing more hostages, while Israel wants more hostages to be released without a gauze agreement. Although some Israelis could accept any agreement that provides the return of 59 hostages still held in Gaza, 24 of whom are said to be alive, key members of the coalition government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahua.
For now, all sides are projecting a sense of momentum.
The Hamas delegation visited Egypt over the weekend to talk about the future of Gaza. The Israeli delegation was supposed to arrive in Qatar on Monday for further mediation. And on Sunday night, the Israeli networks aired interviews with Adam Boehler, an American envoy, in which he reported “some progress” from the perspective of “Children’s Step”.
Mr. Boehler, who overwhelmed American politics over the years to negotiate with Hamas directly, said some demands of the “relatively reasonable” group were “having hope of where it could go.” Mr. Boehler also admitted to being any breakthrough for a few more weeks.
Said senior Hamas official, Mousa Abu Marzouq said Recent interview With the New York Times that he was personally open to negotiations on Hamas’s disarmament, which would increase the chances of compromise. But the Hamas movement quickly distanced himself from his remarks and said they were drawn from context.
The longer the downtime lasts without letting any hostages are likely to be Israeli analysts to return Israel to battle.
Absent breakthrough, Israel should or should accept Hamas’s long-term presence that is unacceptable for many of the Israeli government-or-to-return ministers to force Hamas’s hand, said Ofer Shelah, a former representative and researcher at the National Studies Institute, a research group in Tel AVV.
“Given the current situation, we are embarking on a path leading to the Gaza occupation of Israel, which Israel responded to the fate of two million people,” said Mr. Shelah. These would have lasting consequences not only for Palestinians in Gaza, he said, but also for Israel himself, who would probably be knocked in a expensive war to maintain control of the territory.
Lia Lapidot contributed to Tel Aviv reporting.
