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Strong tariffs of Donald Trump and a rush with a decrease in the size of the federal government will slow down American economic growth and accelerate inflation, the leading academic economists have warned in a research by the Financial Times.
Economists have also marked concern about the quality of economic statistics in the country – vital information for investors in the world’s largest economy – after the Trump administration decision to dissolve the influential council council.
The FT-Chicago Booth survey follows two weeks of sales in US shares, which have been encouraged by Tariff Donald Trump to US trade partners and the efforts of his administration to sharply reduce the Federal Government. It also comes before the Federal Reserve Decision on Wednesday, in which officials will provide their economic forecasts.
“Tariffs, tax reduction, government reduction and expense reduction, attacks on education financing and [Fed] Independence is all in the game, “said Robert Barber, an economist at Johns Hopkins University.” Nothing of this kind has played in my 50 years of prediction. “
Almost all survey respondents, who was carried out in partnership with Clark Center at the University of Chicago Business School, said that economic policy uncertainty would alleviate growth because consumers and companies withdraw to consumption.
The mean estimate of 49 interviewed economists was that the economy was increasing 1.6 percent in 2025, which is abruptly with 2.3 percent in December. Last year, the American economy spread by 2.8 percent, which is the highest rate in the G7 group of leading wealth.
There are already signs that Trump’s tariffs, including those in steel and aluminum, go through the American economy. Companies reported about falling in new orders, while consumers’ feelings decreased. Prices for both metals, key industry inputs, have also increased. Canada and China have already avenged their own tariffs against the US, while the EU threatened it.
Economists also expect that Trump’s policy will encourage more inflation, pushing the Fed away from their goal of 2 percent. They expect that the basic expenditures for personal consumption of the price index-the Fed that the FED watched carefully at the annual rate of 2.8 percent by the end of the year with a forecast for December of 2.5 percent. The measure increased from 2.6 percent year to year in January.
Karen Dynan, a professor at Harvard University, who served under Obama’s administration, said “economists have historically fought to find evidence that uncertainty is important for growth in the US.”
She added, “But uncertainty is so high that it seems that it is likely to reduce the investment. How long it will depend on how long it takes.”
Some of Trump’s leading domestic policies, including major decreasing of federal workforce led by the so -called Ministry of Elon Musk (Doge), have also been challenged in court. Trump also repeatedly retreated to the tariffs, for example, he provided a large carving on the peoples in Mexico and Canada just days after he imposed them.
“It is not clear what political actions will be held, with a permanent turnaround, challenges in the courts, re -estimate,” said Sarah Zubairy, of the University of Texas A&M.
More than 90 percent of respondents also said that concerns were due to the quality of economic data, and just over half said they were very concerned and the rest was a little worried.
This follows the decision of the trade department to dissolve the Counseling Committee of the Federal Economic Statistics, and body This helped improve the quality of economic data, last month.
The Hward Lutnick Store Secretary said earlier this month to plan to “separate” state consumption from GDP measures, which is a change from the international norm of public consumption on the figure.
“Politically motivated change in variable measures would be worrying,” said James Hamilton of the University of California, San Diego, who said he was only slightly concerned about changes in collection and delivery of so far announced.
