A general view of the city of London Skyline, a financial neighborhood of the capital, in October.
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Global markets were hit with fresh volatility This week after US President Donald Trump confirmed plans to impose tariffs to import the three largest American trading partners.
Trump on Monday agreed to break for 30 days 25% of tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, after both countries agreed to take steps to suppress opioid fentanil by moving their borders to the United States.
However, for China there was no break with confronting 10% of imported tariffs “And after that he took revenge on Tariffs up to 15% on US goods.
Furthermore, the European economy is also at risk of Trump’s tariff regime. US President told reporters On Sunday, these tariffs to the EU “definitely happen” – but said that the contract could be concluded “with the UK, a nation with which the US store is more balanced.
“The UK is wrong. But I’m sure one, I think, can be elaborated,” Trump told reporters, adding that he “got along very well” with left -wing Keir Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Starmar told reporters This week if he had talked about the trade talks with Trump and would not choose the sides between the US -A EU, according to Guardian.
Meanwhile, the Minister of Finance in the UK Rachel Reeves, insisted last month that Britain “is not part of the problem” When it comes to trading deficit Trump, he wants to correct his tariff politics.
The US was the largest shopping partner in the UK in the year to September 2024. Official datawhich makes over 17% of the total store in the UK.
Depending on which figures you look at, two countries have a small store deficit or surplus. What is important for Trump – who hates him when he now exports less to a country than imports – the numbers are almost balanced.
As British economy is fighting – With Reeves saying last month That she “struggled every day to start” growth ” – several analysts said to CNBC that the economy could get an incentive from Trump’s trade war.
Economy of services
Irina Surdu-hardla, a professor of international business and strategy at the Warwick Business School, told CNBC that even if the UK is affected by tariffs, the influence can be muted than expected.
“In reality, the effects in the UK market would be relatively limited to industries such as fishing and mining,” she said. “Nature of economics aimed at service is significantly protecting from the consequences of tariffs. Tariffs are particularly harmful to industry with complex supply chains, where goods repeatedly cross the border, as companies seek to turn the entrance to the final goods. Again, this is not the case for the British market that is mostly mostly exports banking and counseling services to the United States “
The five largest exports of goods in the UK were cars, medicines and pharmaceutical products, mechanical energy generators, scientific instruments and aircraft, with a total combined value of £ 25.6 billion (31.8 billion USD).
The value of these exports was dwarf, however, those of the highest service exports, including financial services and insurance, which had a total combined value of £ 109.6 billion.
‘Uniquely positioned’
Neri Karra Sillaman of Oxford University said that the Business School said that the Tariff’s avoidance was completely avoiding the ideal scenario because it could enhance the key British industry.
“If the UK runs out of tariff, it could be uniquely positioned to attract investment, talent and new trade partnerships,” CNBC said on Tuesday.
“Because tariffs push companies to find more economical hubs, the UK could become a preferred approach for companies that want to bypass the restrictions,” she said. “Sectors such as luxury, fashion, pharmaceutical products and advanced production – where the UK already highlights – could see the influx of investment and trade capabilities.”
Great Britain sectors, including the automotive, airline and financial industry, could also benefit from increased demand if American customers look outside suppliers who are affected by tariff, she added.
“We have already seen these patterns – every trade war moves a global economic balance, and this could be a moment for the UK to take advantage of changes, be an active player, not a passerby,” Sillaman told CNBC.
A new safe haven?
Alex King, former FX trader and founder of the Personal Finance Platform Generation moneyThey agreed that Trump’s policy could provide some economic relief to Britain.
“When the tariffs on China were first imposed now, Chinese manufacturers switched many of their goods through Vietnam and Thailand to the US to avoid tariffs,” King said through the E -Star. “If the UK avoids tariffs, it is in a potentially favorable position to benefit from a similar directing from the EU.”
King also claimed that British pound It could appear as the “main winner of” a potential trade war, noting that after Trump’s initial tariff certificates had increased against the euro last week, Canadian dollars and the currency of Australia and New Zealand.
GBP/USD
He said it was a sign that global investors “can see the UK as a potentially safe haven.”
“Ultimately, the UK could be one of the few major economies with a relatively tariff approach and the US and the EU, making it a kilogram of poetic winner.”
On Tuesday, Sterling compared some of his gains against the euro to keep the trade a little lower about 83.13 pencils per Eur. The position, however, strengthened in relation to the US dollar.
‘A place for overweight’
Dan Boardman-Weston, CEO of Bru Wealth Management, said the UK had a “combat chance” to avoid US tariffs, making it an attractive investors’ market.
“If Trump continues with tariffs in other countries, it is probably that more goods will end up in the UK and depress the inflation,” he said. “Higher internal investment in the UK is also likely if the tariffs get worse and become a lasting feature of the global trade landscape.”
He noted that interest rates were likely to fall further and faster in the UK than the United States, which could stimulate the re-evaluation of British companies, along with the decline in the adjective on the UK state bonds known as GILTS.
“When this is related to the relative political stability of the UK and cheap estimates, the UK is a place for overweight for 2025,” he claimed.
This means that the dynamics in the UK has changed opposite Europe, according to Chris Metcalfe, the Chief of Investment Director at IBOSS Asset Management.
“For foreign investors, since 2016, there have been reasons to choose the EU country over the UK, mainly because it is simply a larger market,” he told CNBC on Tuesday.
“Although Trump’s tariff politics may look chaotic and confused, it is difficult to see a scenario in which it turns the course and imposes more tariffs to the UK rather than the EU. This undoubtedly creates a positive background to attract US companies and investment in the UK, especially given political chaos in France and Germany. “
