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Singapore (Reuters) – Singapore Banks were supposed to report stronger profits in the fourth quarter, but this year’s growth could score, as the trade tariffs of US President Donald Trump and other policies are threatening to disrupt the global economy, analysts say.
The Singapore Bank, the largest assets in Southeast Asia, is envisaged to publish more net profit from the fourth quarter, encouraged by strong revenues than net interest and higher revenues than fees, LSEG estimates have shown.
The banks, similar to their regional peers, benefited from higher supplies of interest rate interest rates and strong richness inflows basically the political stability of the city state.
However, Trump trade tariffs on China and the threat of duty to other US trade partners are the risk of Singapore, the main global trade and financial center. The main concern, analysts say, escalating the Tariff Tit-For-Tat cycle, which promotes the broader global trade war.
“In such a scenario of local banks, it may need to increase the provisions for potential bad debt due to growing risks of growth, which could come to the detriment of earnings,” said Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist on the IG IG trade platform.
“In addition, enhanced global uncertainty could reduce the demand of loan, as companies and consumers take a more cautious attitude about borrowing and consumption,” he added.
The DBS Group, the largest among the three loans in Singapore, is foreseen that a 9.8% increase in net profit will be recorded in the period from October and December compared to the year earlier, according to LSEG estimates.
Excessive-Kinese banking Corp (OCBC) and United Foreign Bank (UOB) It is estimated that after the quarter after a quarter after a quarter, it will increase net profit of 11.6%, respectively 4.3%, respectively 4.3%, respectively 4.3 %.
DBS should publish the results of February 10, while OCBC should publish their 19th and 26th on February 26.
In addition to the odds, analysts said the key focus will be on the announcement of the earnings of capital return, such as potential special dividends and a larger share of the redemption program, after strong bank earnings in the previous quarters.
He could “surprise” the most accompanied by DBS with special dividends, according to Thilan Wickramasinghe, a research chief of Singapore and the regional head of the Maybank Investment Banking Group.
Looking in advance, some moderation of bank earnings on cards is on cards, as it is foreseen that in three years it will increase 4.0% in 2024 for the fastest tempo in three years, that it will slow down to 1.0% to 3, 0% at 2025.
The Central Bank of the country announced at the end of January, the impact of a shift in global trade policy could strive on the domestic services sectors related to production and trade.
