During his last presidential campaign, President Trump boasted for forcing Mexico arrange 28,000 soldiers to his borders During his first administration to avoid tariffs.
This week, Mr. Trump and Mexico concluded another contract to send an additional 10,000 members of the Mexican National Guard to the border to stop the flow of migrants and drugs – a compromise for another separate American tariffs. Mr. Trump advocated an agreement as a victory for the United States.
However, analysts and former diplomats who set up the first troupe deployment in 2019 are doubtful that additional soldiers will have a lot of effects that will prevent the movement of migrants or medicines, especially the fental.
Instead, they say, the deployment arranged by President Claudia Sheinbaum from Mexico may be in accordance with Mr. Trump’s affinity, not that part of the well -thought out military campaign.
“It’s a lot of shock and awe, but very little politics,” said Arturo Sarukhán, Ambassador of Mexico in Washington during the term of the terms of President Felipe Calderón from 2006 to 2012, an administration that aggressively persecuted cartels in Mexico, stunning extraordinary levels of violence throughout to the state.
The Mexican government seems to echo the affection of Mr. Trump for high media Blitz.
After reaching the agreement, photographs and videos of Mexican soldiers who were waiting to board the military flights and vehicles for their deployment of the border. In recent weeks, Mr Trump’s use of US military planes to deport migrants have been mirrored.
But what Mexican troops will do on the border is not clear. The Mexican Ministry of Defense is known for its lack of transparency, as it is not necessary to discover its business or details on the financing of the Mexican Congress or the public.
There are traces from Mr. Trump’s first term, when more than 20,000 Mexican troops were sent to the northern and southern boundaries of the country and were responsible for raising control points and breaking large groups of migrants.
The Mexican Ministry of Defense did not answer questions about deployment, and Mrs. Sheinbaum has said a little so far what exactly will be the responsible force.
Mexico already has a significant military presence along the US border. Storr Sam, analyst based in Mexico who accompanies military activities with a Civic Safety Project at the University of Ibericican, said there was a monthly average of 1,115 national guards and 7,959 hulls of the Mexican army as part of immigration implementation at the northern border of the country of the country in the first half 2024.
Adding 10,000 new members of national guards, Mr. Storr said, “he could potentially be a significant increase,” but also called him “extremely confusing.” He said it was unknown if some troops would turn. And, he said, on the basis of a request for public records, the Mexican army traditionally performed more drug attacks – and has a greater presence in the northern countries.
The National Guard, Mr. Storr said, “seems to be an auxiliary force,” filling the defects for the state police and contributing to Customs.
Officials of US Border Patrol recorded approximately 71,000 illegal crossings at the end of Mr. Trump’s first term in December 2020. The transitions achieved record high than President Joseph R. Biden in 2023They fell to about 47,000 by December 2024.
The bigger question is what additional troops can do, if nothing else, in order for the flow of fental to the United States.
“It’s Whac-a-Mol,” said Mr. Sarukhan, a former ambassador. “Most of the fentalis pass through the legal points of entering the US, not between them, and most of the hulls will be distributed there: on illegal entrance points.”
The challenge of the fental interception, analysts say, is triple. First, the fentanil is compact, and only small amounts of drugs needed to increase a lot of people, unlike cocaine. It is much easier to smuggle into the United States in passenger vehicles compared to other drugs. Mexican security forces do not search vehicles at US input ports; This happens on the American side of the border.
Second, most of the smass smarters are not illegal migrants, according to Mr. Trump, But American citizens passing through border crossings. 2023. US citizens were responsible for 86 percent of cases of fentanil trade In the United States, according to government data.
Third, although the National Guard is authorized to perform inspections, it would be significantly needed by more soldiers to effectively inspect the amount of vehicles, which would probably slow down bilateral trade between the United States and Mexico. In 2018, the port of the Ticket in the Ladry in Texas – where most trade streams – saw more than five million cars and 2.3 million trucks Cross, wear goods worth about $ 235 billion.
“Drug implementation militarization is nothing new,” said Stephanie Brewer, director of Mexico at the Washington Office for the Latin America research institute. “If nothing else, it doubles in a failed drug against a drug that has done nothing to stop the drug since it began decades ago.”
Analysts say you need to break more intelligence intelligence for laboratory or identifying American citizens who smuggle it. The Mexican National Guard is a relatively new force and has established only its own intelligence wing in At the end of 2023.
Intelligence “is a truly most effective tool, after 10,000, 15,000 or 20,000 members of the National Guard,” said Jonathan Maza, based in Mexico Security analyst. He said that the cooperation between Mexican authorities and US agencies was increased – such as drug implementation administration; Alcohol, tobacco, firearms and explosives; And the FBI – was crucial.
But that job should be done elsewhere, not at the crossings.
“The production of the fantanil is not on the border, but in the icing,” said Falko Ernst, a security analyst in Mexico.
“These are transnational networks of organized crime used by both American and Mexican territory,” he added. “What is needed is a transnational solution.”
The Mexican government has announced that 10,000 members of the National Guard will be stationed in 18 cities and cities along the US-Mexican border, with the largest contingents distributed in Tijuan and Ciudad Juárez.
The troops on Tuesday began to divert north from Southeast Mexico, one of the safest regions in the country and the popular tourist destination. Others were drawn from countries that recorded a recent decrease in crime rates.
“The plan made clearly does not put in danger of security in the rest of the territory,” Ms. Sheinbaum said on Wednesday.
General Inspector José Luis Santos behind, coordinator 31. Battalion of the National Guard headquarters in Ciudada Juárez, said there would be “permanent monitoring” of the border and all the routes leading to it, and the troops that patrol on foot and in vehicles.
Mayor Juan Francisco Gim Nogales from Nogales, a city bordering Arizon, said on Wednesday that 400 soldiers who would be deployed later that day.
He expressed hope that additional forces would help fight organized crime operational In his city and restraining the flow of rifles entering Mexico. The schedule would double his native armed forces from about 350 to 700, said Mr. Gim Nadales.
“It will give peace to citizens,” he said.
Emiliano Rodríguez Mega Reported reporting from Mexico City, Rocío Gallegos from Ciudada Juárez, Alinian corpus from Tijiana and Chantal Flores from Monterrey, Mexico.
