To confuse US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans is not a disadvantage – this is proof that you are paying attention to the Labyrinth Funhouse Labyrinth of Trump’s trade threats.
One minute, he is imposing massive tariffs about Canada and Mexico, then they are deferredThen they are procedure March 4, then They are notThen they are Again but it turns out to be really talking about more targeted Tariffs later. And so on.
The reason why she is so confusing is that Trump has made many tariff threats, such as endless geyser of economic threats.
Tries to connect those threats together, clashes them when they asked him about one; Then it was left to his assistants to clean things, which is his white house Tuesday and his secretary of trade did it Wednesday.
So what does it all mean for Canada? Here are three key matches.
First, there is no indication of whether a large 25 percent tariff comes to March 4 or ever.
Second, different threats could break Canada over the coming weeks, including steel, aluminum and possibly other products.
Third, this confusion can be intentional, in the work of the Canada-Us-Mexico agreement. Creating uncertainty in international trade is a longtime Trump’s politics, and this is now happening on steroids.
Early signs that scared companies respond just as Trump would like: Moving production to the US
“Create chaos,” as described Trump’s strategy by Gary Hufbauer, for decades a long Washington veteran observer.
“It’s not a beetle [of Trump’s trade policy]as they say. It is a feature of Trump. And we will continue to see that over the next few years. “
In an effort from a weak path to light up light into that chaos, here’s what we know and what we don’t want to what Trump planned in the store.
In response to a journalist’s question at a press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron, US President Donald Trump said the deadline for the imposition of tariff Canada next week, and Mexico is “according to the schedule”, repeating his claim that they have used “many years.”
March 4
For Canada, here’s a big, Trump is the widest threat: a 25 -pointed tariff on almost everything, with a smaller oil tariff on oil.
If this tariff actually went forward, Hufbauer estimates that it will quickly shave three percent of the Canadian economy, which has launched a difficult recession: “Very painful,” he said.
But Trump stopped him repeatedly.
It all started last year when Trump complained about Fentanil and migrants who spilled across the border; He said the tariffs were coming on January 20, and then it was February 1, and then it was February 4, and now it was paused until March 4.
The Store Secretary of the Howard Lutnick Greetings Greetings to Canada’s Progress public iu private conversation, quoting More actions understood about the border.
So, will his boss float with tariffs next week? Predictions differ.
The longtime DC observer William Reinsch predicts another delay and then maybe the other, because Trump keeps the threat as an influence.
“I think we will see rolling delay,” said Reinsch, a former US store official and a trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Let him retreat to the edge. As he did last time. Then make a refund.”
Others, however, foresee some kind of action next week.
Hufbauer predicts that Trump will bring something on March 4 – though less than threatened: “Not at a rate of 25 percent. But at a lower rate.”
Canadian trade expert Dan Ujczo sees a wide variety of possibilities and expects Trump to land somewhere between two extremes-to completely lower the tariffs or impose them without finish.
“There are a number of options in the middle,” said Ujczo, a senior advisor at Ohio Thompson Hine’s law firm, describing options as: another delay; a small tariff that grows; Or, a large tariff with expiration date.
March 12: Metal tariffs
Trump is promising 25 percent of tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum. That could be a major problem for Canada.
“Canada will be a major victim,” Reinsch said. Hufbauer agrees that it is likely to come, and Canada is likely to be affected.
He said they were not a plot like some Trump’s other threats. He said Trump was dead in the management of the production of certain products in the USA, steel and aluminum.
“Unfortunately,” Hufbauer added, predicting that these tariffs would cause unnecessary damage to the American economy.
But there is a warning.
It is not quite clear how many customs customs will go to me in the interpretation and implementation of the rules, Ujczo said. Will they hit parts of the car? What about building materials, which predominantly use imported aluminum?
Ujczo said it was the one who holds him at night. He said he heard progress in tariffs across the economy not to that. “The question is: What will be the scope?”
Maybe, he said, Trump could delay the implementation. What would this problem push into what will be very traffic spring.
April showers
You should practically need a full -time cartographer to mapping all trade actions that Trump threatens after April 1.
Then the real meat of Trump’s trade policy hit the table.
On the first day of power, Trump wanted Reports of the officer of his cabinet by April 1, studying US trade deficits, dishonest practices of other countries that deserve retaliation and potential income that could now increase the tariffs. Penalties would arrive later, perhaps even Months later.
Trump observes different types of tariffs – from global minimum tariffs to every international import, to the target retaliation (what he calls reciprocal tariffs).
Canada is among the countries that he mention In a separate executive order of reciprocal tariffs, complaining about Canadian digital services tax.
Lutnick even complains of the design of Canadian GST, suggesting ua An interview with Fox News that this could be an excuse for additional tariffs.
But that’s not all.
“Wait, there is more,” Democrat Ron Wyden said, while mockingly read a list of Trump’s tariff threats UA speech in Senate.
Trump is threatening 25 percent of tariffs on car, semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports as early as April 2, and maybe lumberalso.
Some of this would obviously be brutal for Canada.
But here we are approaching Trump’s end game. At this point, he expects Ujczo, Trump will want to start negotiating a Canada-Us-Mexico agreement, which by law He has to start next year, but Ujczo expects to start this spring.
Trump will have tariff threats as an impact.
We already have a general sense of Trump’s wish list: more access to the Canadian dairy market, changes to sure digital rulesand tightened the trade Autos – Although it is still unclear whether its main goal is the Chinese parts of a car or all the country.
And if he doesn’t get what he wants, he will endanger Canada and Mexico – tariffs and withdrawal of the US from the Continental Store Agreement
“That Damocles sword always hangs over their heads,” Ujczo said. “I don’t think Trump’s administration will be very patient. The Canadian strategy that attended the clock may not work this time.”
So there is. Possible large tariffs next week, and maybe not; probably smaller tariffs later; And a very stormy spring, because Canada may or may not be in the middle of the choice.
All clear now?
