A crime referendum? What to know about the Ecuador’s presidential election | News of the election

Just 18 months ago, Daniel Noboa, 37, won the Ecuador’s Presidency, becoming the youngest man ever elected to the office.

Now on Sunday, he once again faces surveys.

This time, however, is a bigger prize: a full four -year term in the presidential palace. Since the last win of NOBO was in a quick election, he was limited to serving the rest of his predecessor’s term.

In Sunday’s race, Noboa will face 15 candidates, including Luis Gonzalez MP, his main competition in the last elections. The vote is ready to be a referendum on his short stay in power so far.

Noboa has entered the duty as a candidate for law and order, leading several measures that expand the powers of the law implementation-sometimes at the expense of supervision and civil freedoms. But Ecuador still suffered from high levels of violence and organized crime.

Who are the candidates? What questions the voters are focused on? And what can public opinion polls can tell us about the race condition? We answer these questions and more in this brief explanation.

What is the procedure for the voting of Ecuador?

The first round of voting will happen on Sunday, February 9, to win, the candidate must provide more than 50 percent of the vote, or at least 40 percent, and the advantage of 10 points compared to the candidate in second place.

If the candidate does not pass that threshold in the first round, the second round of voting will be held on April 13, in which two first candidates participated.

Is the Presidency the only Capture Office?

Not. These are general elections. All places in the national assembly of 151 members of the country will also prepare for capturing, and those elected to the legislative body will also perform four -year terms.

Why was Nobo’s mandate so short?

Noboa President was first elected in October 2023 after his predecessor Guillermo LassoFaced with the procedure of imperialation, he referred to the constitutional mechanism known as “Muerte Cruzada” or “crossed death.”

No president has ever arranged Muerte Cruzad before. Not only did he finish Lasso’s expression, but he also dissolved the legislation of Ecuador, launching a Snap election.

At that time, Noboa was a first -born member of the National Assembly, and was among the elected officials affected by Muerte Cruzad.

The heir to the Banana Business Wealth, Noboa eventually created his party and ran for the Presidency, beating in a tight race that progressed to the second round. He was 35 at the time.

He then finished what would be the rest of Lass’s term, a period of 18 months. Now he is looking for his own four -year term.

What do polls say?

Noboa will face the competition from a crowded candidate field. But his biggest competition is likely to be Luis Gonzalez, whom he defeated in 2023 with a margin of less than four points.

Gonzalez represents a party for the left civic revolution founded by former President Rafael Corre.

Most surveys show Noboa in the lead role-but less than a threshold to avoid running away. It is very likely that, just like in 2023, the election will move to the second round that Noboa is thrown against Gonzalez.

Polls do not show another candidate who has enough support to cause leaders, but the pre -election survey does not always tell the whole story. Noboa barely registered on the electorate’s electorate before the first round of the 2023 vote.

Who else runs?

Some are familiar faces in the line. Jan Topic, a right-wing businessman who ran himself in 2023, competes again, repeating his invitation to politics with an iron fist-or “mano dura”-a pole for the fight against crime.

Leonidas behind, president of a powerful indigenous confederation in the country, is also a return candidate. He was a distinguished critic of former President Lass and ran on a platform of greater sovereignty and opportunities for the indigenous peoples.

Another candidate is likely to serve as a reminder of Ecuador’s struggle with violence.

In 2023, the presidential race was needed when the candidate for anti -corruption, Fernando Villaviccio, shot and killed after leaving the rally, shortly before voting. He sought to highlight the connection between organized crime and the corruption of the Government.

His former racing friend Andrea Gonzalez will be in the race on Sunday.

What do polls say about the National Assembly?

In the race for the control of the legislative authorities, the Noboa and Gonzalez party also lead the rest of the terrain.

Most of the survey in January showed the party of Nobo’s national democratic action (ADN), which led Gonzalez’s civic revolution (RC) to various margins. Only one poll found RC in front of ADN for about three points.

Currently, the National Assembly has 137 seats, and Citizen Revolution has the highest seats of any individual party: 48. But after Sunday’s election, the National Assembly will expand to 151 seats, and the Noboa party is expected to earn significant gains.

What questions the voters care about most?

Numerous questions have appeared as a major priorities in public opinion polls, such as growing living costs, lack of appropriate economic circumstances and a series of electricity disappearance that made life difficult for the residents of the country.

But a January research The Comicanicsis data company suggested that one edition has an advantage over everyone else: crime and insecurity. He overpowered the second biggest concern, lack of employment possibilities, for about 14 points.

“The mirror in the research after the survey that it is a worrying number one,” Ivan Briscoe, an expert on Latin American politics in the international crisis group, told Al Jazeera.

Why did violence become such a problem in Ecuador?

Ecuador was once seen as a country that was safer and more stable than other parts of South America. He gained the reputation of the “Peace Island” in the region that is otherwise known for breeding cocaine and trade.

But in recent years, the explosion of violence and organized criminal activity has shocked the country.

“Ecuador had 7,000 killings with 18 million inhabitants last year, making it the highest homicide rate in South America. And that is in a country that has been known for decades as a quiet country, “Briscoe said.

“It casts light on the inability of the state to answer, but also raises the question of the copyrights of state officials in criminal ventures and, thus, the extent of corruption.”

Ecuador sits on the Pacific coast between Colombia and Peru, the world’s largest cocaine producers.

After the Coid-19 pandemi, experts say they are drug trafficking groups started pushing to the territory of Ecuador, trying to use ports in the country.

Pandemi also led to the devastation of Ecuador’s economy, leaving many young unemployed and vulnerable to employment from criminal networks.

Noboa did not blame his predecessors to allow cocaine production to be rooted in Ecuador. In October, his government announced that the production of coca – a raw drug ingredient – was discovered at about 2,000 hectares (4,942 hectares) of the country.

What solutions are exposed?

Voters have largely put their faith sharp solution.

In April, for example, the country voted mainly for reforms that would formalize the role of the army in public security and pronounce fines for crimes such as drug trade.

Noboa did not show the willingness to suspend key civic freedom on behalf of the improvement of security.

IN January 2024Noboa announced that the country was “in war” with criminal groups and declared the state of the internal armed conflict, expanding the role of the army in the activities of the law implementation.

The results have been mixed so far. While the murder rate slightly fell in 2024, it remains significantly above the level before the pandemic.

Abuse also revealed what they asked questions about military enlarged forces. In one case, the surveillance footage seemed to have shown a military truck the abduction of four young men In the port town of Guayaquil. Their carbon remains were later found near the military base.

But Briscoe said that, for now, Ecuadorian policy is dominated by rhetoric and ideas for crimes.

“No one will suggest negotiating with criminal groups. It’s not on the agenda of any candidate,” he said.

But he added that the safety measures themselves would not be sufficient to solve the root of crime in Ecuador.

“When you can’t leave the house for crime, you’ll want the state to answer,” he said.

“However, in the long run, these security policies such as arranging the military tend to fail if they are not accompanied by other systemic, far -reaching approaches that deal with corruption, socioeconomic inequality and criminal investigation.”