New Delhi, India — When China announced the creation of the new districts last week, it marked boundaries that include parts of the country that India claims are part of Ladakh, a region federally administered by New Delhi.
India quickly responded with a public protest. A spokesman for the country’s Ministry of External Affairs, Randhir Jaiswal, said New Delhi had “never accepted China’s illegal occupation of Indian territory in this area”. China’s announcement, he said, would not lend any “legitimacy” to Beijing’s territorial claims.
The latest spat between the Asian giants underscores the fragility of easing tensions they declared along their disputed border in October, following a four-year standoff between their troops. The neighbors have withdrawn many of their troops, although questions about the future of the country, which was previously controlled by India but is said to have been seized by China since 2020, remain unanswered by both sides.
India-China relations appear poised for another major test, analysts say: United States President-elect Donald Trump.
The former president, who effectively started a trade war with China in his first term, threatened to impose 100% tariffs on imports from China. But while he described Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a “good man”, Trump also threatened tariffs on India.
As the date of his inauguration – January 20 – approaches, Trump seems to have softened a bit on China, a country at the center of the business interests of allies of the future US president, billionaire Elon Musk, who is also ready to have a role in the administration. All this is causing uneasiness in sections of India’s strategic community.
Trump “tends to flatter his enemies and upset his friends,” said Jayant Prasad, a former Indian diplomat.
In November, shortly after winning the US presidential election, Trump said he would “save” the Chinese-owned social media app TikTok, which he owned once tried to ban. Trump also extended an invitation to Chinese President Xi Jinping for his inauguration. Beijing has neither accepted nor – at least publicly – declined the invitation, although some analysts said Xi was unlikely to show up.
On the other hand, it is not known that Trump extended a similar invitation to Modi, with whom the American leader held two joint meetings in 2019 and 2020, in Houston and the Indian city of Ahmedabad. Indian social media is abuzz with memes mocking Modi, suggesting that Foreign Minister S Jaishankar’s visit to Washington late last month was aimed at begging the Trump team for an invitation for their boss.
Trump’s ambivalence toward China is troubling New Delhi, analysts said, warning that either extreme — an extremely tough anti-China campaign from Washington or a deal with Beijing — would be bad for India.
“There are twin dangers for India in the second [Trump] ” said Christopher Clary, non-resident fellow at the Stimson Center and associate professor of political science at the University at Albany.
“Trump and his team could be more hawkish than New Delhi’s preferences, especially when it comes to trade and investment flows that force India to make decisions it would not like to make,” he told Al Jazeera. “Alternatively, that [Trump’s team] he may try to cut a big deal with China to improve his credentials as the ultimate dealmaker. That would leave India in the lurch.”
Prasad also said that while he expects India-US relations to remain strong, there could be a setback if Trump decides to strengthen ties with Beijing.
In an editorial, the Global Times, a mouthpiece for the Chinese Communist Party, last week advocated an approach to ties that focuses on cooperation between Beijing and Washington, particularly in areas such as technology. The US, under President Joe Biden, has imposed a series of sanctions and other restrictions on Chinese technology, particularly semiconductors. China has retaliated with restrictions of its own, including on exports of key minerals to the US.
India on its part is trying ride the suspense over Trump’s approach to China. Modi is expected to host a meeting between the leaders of the Quartet – which includes the US, India, Japan and Australia – in 2025, for which New Delhi wants Trump to travel to India. Meanwhile, China will host the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit this year, to which Modi may travel.
After a clash between Indian and Chinese troops in Galwan in Ladakh in May 2020 that left at least 20 Indian soldiers dead, New Delhi cracked down on Chinese apps – banning TikTok. India has stepped up scrutiny of Chinese investments and infrastructure projects in the country, citing national security concerns. But as foreign investment inflows have slowed overall, India’s Finance Ministry has again advocated encouraging Chinese investment in 2024.
Amitabh Mathur, a former special secretary in the research and analysis department, India’s foreign intelligence agency, said he believes the US has been aggressive in its approach to China in recent years and has succeeded in positioning itself as a leading power in the Asia-Pacific region. . Stronger ties between the US and India have been at the heart of Washington’s resistance to Beijing in the region.
While most experts expect Trump to continue with such a broad approach, the presence of allies like Musk on his team could moderate what the US president is doing, some say.
“I don’t think the US pivot to India is likely to change in the broader Indo-Pacific context — while it will try to get a better deal with China,” said Anil Trigunayat, a retired Indian diplomat and strategic analyst. “Musk and other industrialists on his team will no doubt try to tinker with his excessive tariff plans.”
How much is a question that India will want answered.
