Investing.com — US President Donald Trump did not impose tariffs ‘on day one’ as many feared, but Barclays (LON: ) warns that markets should not be complacent for too long and singles out April 1 as a key date to watch for changes in tariff policy, citing clues from the president’s ‘America First Trade Policy’ memo.
“President Trump did not impose tariffs on Day 1. Instead, he issued a presidential memorandum titled ‘America First Trade Policy,'” Barclays said in a note. “Investors should read the memorandum as a blueprint for what to expect next in terms of tariffs.”
The memo directs certain departments and agencies to review and issue reports by April 1, 2025. Those reports, analysts believe, are likely to serve as catalysts for new tariff proposals or adjustments to current tariffs.
Further supporting April 1 as a key date to watch, analysts believe the timeline also gives the Senate plenty of time to confirm key positions, including Howard Lutnick as Commerce Secretary and Jamieson Greer as US Trade Representative. These two roles must be fulfilled before the Trump administration begins to change tariff policy, analysts added.
After the report, due on April 1, changes to tariff policy could be announced, likely to take effect 30 to 60 days later, Barclays said.
The presidential memo suggests that a variety of tariffs could be on the table, including a universal tariff and tariffs targeting China, Mexico and Canada.
Trump, however, has already threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting February 1, and up to 100% tariffs on China on TikTok, but Barclays believes the timeline proposed in the memo carries more weight than these “unusual” off-the-cuff remarks .”
The memo also calls for investigations into the causes of annual U.S. merchandise deficits and recommendations for remedies, which could include “global additional tariffs or other policies.”
This suggests that “the countries and sectors most sensitive to targeted tariffs could be those with the largest merchandise trade deficits with the US,” Barclays said.
