What we know about the proposed Gaza ceasefire agreement
After more than 15 months of near-continuous fighting in Gaza, diplomats trying to broker a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas expressed cautious hope on Tuesday that a deal may finally be within reach.
But that optimism was tempered – by uncertainty over whether both sides would eventually agree, what details could still change, and the experience of the past months in which ceasefire talks have repeatedly failed.
“We believe we are in the final stages, but until we have a statement – there will be no statement,” Majed al-Ansari, a spokesman for the foreign ministry of one of the mediator countries, Qatar, told reporters on Tuesday.
Here’s what we know about the potential ceasefire agreement.
What is the state of negotiations?
US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said on Tuesday that Israel and Hamas “right on the edge” of agreeing to an agreement on a pause in the fighting in Gaza and the release of hostages held there in exchange for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.
He and diplomats from other mediating countries, including Qatar and Egypt, have been unable to make progress in the talks for months, but have made rapid progress in recent weeks.
The mediators “managed to minimize many disagreements between both sides,” Mr. al-Ansari said, adding that they were focused on “the final details of reaching an agreement.”
“On Sunday, the United States, Qatar and Egypt presented the final proposal,” Mr. Blinken said. The ball is now in Hamas’s court.
Officials from both the Israeli government and Hamas have suggested they are willing to move forward if the other side signs on.
On Monday, a Hamas official said a deal was possible in the coming days as long as Israel did not suddenly change its stance. On Tuesday, an Israeli official said Israel was ready to close the deal and was waiting for Hamas to make a decision.
Hamas officials negotiating in Qatar must get the consent of the group’s remaining military commanders in Gaza for the deal. Those commanders include Mohammad Sinwar, whose brother led the group before he became one killed by Israel in September. Due to their need to keep their location a secret, communication with them can be difficult, causing delays.
It is still unclear whether Mr. Sinwar has conveyed his position on the ceasefire proposal to Hamas leaders in Qatar.
What does the proposal say?
Given the sensitive negotiations that continue, officials have been cautious about describing the proposed agreement except in broad terms.
The framework agreement was largely inspired by previous proposals discussed in May and July, said one diplomat familiar with the talks, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the volatile negotiations. Those proposals detailed a three-phase ceasefire in which Israeli troops would gradually withdraw from Gaza, while Hamas would release hostages in exchange for Palestinians jailed by Israel.
Israeli officials hope to secure the release of at least some of the 100 or so hostages held in Gaza since a Hamas-led attack on southern Israel in October 2023 that started the war. About 35 remaining hostages are considered dead by the Israeli authorities.
Hamas leaders want to end Israel’s military campaign, ensure the entry of reconstruction materials and free Palestinian prisoners held in Israel.
During the first phase of the proposed ceasefire – which would last about six weeks – Hamas would release 33 named hostages, most of whom Israel believes are alive, said an Israeli official who requested anonymity to discuss the sensitive negotiations. Israel is willing to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in exchange, the official said, but the number depends on how many hostages are still alive.
Why have talks moved so quickly in recent weeks?
Some officials have suggested that the change in US administrations, due to take place on January 20, has put pressure on Israel and Hamas to speed up decision-making after months of delay.
The future US president, Donald J. Trump, warned that there will be “hell to pay” unless the hostages are released by the time he becomes president. Steve Witkoff, his pick for Middle East envoy, also traveled to Qatar and Israel.
The talks have also gained momentum since Israel arrived special ceasefire agreement with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which began firing rockets at Israel immediately after the Hamas-led attack in October 2023. Very beaten its escalating conflict with Israel, Hezbollah agreed to a cease-fire with Israel in November, an agreement that helped isolate Hamas.