Donald Trump was typically outspoken when he first warned in December that there would be “hell to pay” in the Middle East if Israeli hostages held in Gaza were not freed before his inauguration.
The US president-elect’s belligerent tone had the desired effect, adding momentum to long-stalled talks and culminating in Israel and Hamas agreeing on Wednesday to a cease-fire agreement that ends the devastating 15-month war in Gaza and frees the 98 remaining prisoners held in Gaza. tape.
With Steve Witkoff, Trump’s New York real estate pal turned Middle East envoy, playing a central role as he shuttled between Qatar — which hosted the talks — and Israel, the brokers finally secured a deal that had long eluded the Biden administration.
This should mean that the people of Gaza, who have suffered immeasurably through the deadliest war in their history, will finally have some respite from Israeli bombs and bullets, and can temporarily begin to think about rebuilding.
Relatives of the remaining Israeli hostages held since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack that killed 1,200 people, according to Israeli officials, will begin to hope their nightmare is over. The prisoners, who lived a hellish life trapped in Hamas’ network of tunnels, will be released if the deal goes ahead.
The key question is whether it can last. Will this be a temporary pause or will it lead to the permanent truce that mediators, the Palestinians and the wider region so desperately want?
Trump has already declared victory in helping broker a deal where President Joe Biden failed. But the durability of the truce brokered by the US, Qatar and Egypt could depend on his willingness to continue to use US political muscle, including to ensure that the far-right government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu implements the deal.
Trump’s new administration is filled with staunchly pro-Israel figures, and during his first term he has shown little empathy or patience for the Palestinians while implementing a series of pro-Israel measures that have upended decades of American policy. But we hope Trump will now take responsibility for the deal and ensure its success.
However, there will be a risk of corruption on all sides, including Hamas, whose military capabilities have been severely weakened but not eradicated.
The cease-fire deal is based on a three-phase proposal that Biden first endorsed in May. It will begin with an initial 42-day ceasefire, during which 33 hostages — including women, the elderly and the wounded — will be released in exchange for an agreed number of Palestinian prisoners. Israeli troops should be redeployed away from urban centers and allow aid to reach the belt plagued by hunger and disease.
More challenging is the second phase, which aims to bring about a permanent ceasefire, the release of the remaining hostages – including Israeli soldiers – and the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops.
At this stage, the finer details of which still need to be negotiated, Netanyahu’s commitment will be fully tested.
He has repeatedly rejected agreeing to a permanent end to the war or the withdrawal of his forces from Gaza. Hamas, meanwhile, has demanded that high-profile prisoners, including those serving life sentences for murder and terrorism, be released in exchange for soldiers held hostage – a bitter pill for Israelis to swallow.
Netanyahu is already facing resistance from far-right allies and ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Smotrich described the deal as a “surrender”; Ben-Gvir this week called on the former to join forces with him in resigning from the government.
While the veteran prime minister’s ruling coalition was strengthened by the addition of another right-wing party in September, the departure of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich would leave him with a minority government. That could force Netanyahu into early elections, bringing about the political showdown at the ballot box that he sought to avoid.
There is still no clarity on the key question of who will lead the lane. Neither Israel, the US nor the Arab states want Hamas — which has ruled Gaza since 2007 — to regain control, but Netanyahu has not presented a viable plan for the “day after” the war. He rejected US and Arab pressure to cooperate with the Palestinian Authority, which controls limited parts of the occupied West Bank.
He is furious against any moves towards a Palestinian state, which experts say is the only long-term solution.
The Biden administration has been in talks with Arab partners for months about the possible formation of an international security force that would work alongside the PA-backed interim Palestinian administration – including Gazans – to handle civilian affairs.
But the US wouldn’t put boots on the ground, and it’s unclear who else – if anyone – would, given the risk of being drawn into the insurgency and seen to be doing Israel’s bidding. It is not clear whether Trump will propose his own plan, or whether he has even thought about the future of Gaza after his inauguration.
Yet the needs of the people of Gaza could not be more urgent. The Israeli offensive has killed more than 46,000 people, according to Palestinian officials, including both civilians and fighters. Entire families were wiped out, and a generation of children were left without parents and scarred for life.
Schools, hospitals, houses, offices and businesses were destroyed. The vast majority of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents have been driven from their homes. Many do not know what they will find when they return.
Trump is likely to focus on pushing for a grand bargain that will normalize Saudi Arabia’s relationship with Israel. But Riyadh insists that could only happen if Israel takes irreversible steps towards a Palestinian state.
With Netanyahu and his far-right allies in power, Israel is more likely to want to annex the West Bank or escalate hostilities with Iran than make concessions to the Palestinians.
Stopping the war lasted almost a year of negotiations. But compared to the Herculean task of rebuilding Gaza, not to mention the long-elusive goal of sustainable peace in the region, that might turn out to be the easy part.
