How do Western sanctions affect the transition in Syria after Assad? | Syrian war news

A wide range of Western sanctions is weakening the Syrian economy and threatening its recovery after 14 years of civil war.

United States and the European Union imposed sanctions against former President Bashar al-Assad and his regime for crimes committed during the war, which began after pro-democracy protesters were suppressed in 2011.

While al-Assad is now gone, sanctions remain in place, including on him Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)the main group that overthrew al-Assad and is now leading the transition in Syria.

Some European officials they recently said they would not lift sanctions until Syria’s new rulers demonstrate that they will protect minorities and share power.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock traveled to Syria with her French counterpart on January 3. She said their mission was “to discuss whether such an inclusive political process is possible and whether human rights can truly be guaranteed”.

“The whole issue of lifting sanctions is related to this,” she said.

Western sanctions were part of an effort to pressure al-Assad to change his ways, and Western policymakers say it will be necessary to do the same with the new administration. But many Syrians believe the sanctions threaten to doom Syria’s political transition as it struggles to recover from years of destruction and isolation.

Here’s everything you need to know about Western sanctions and how they affect Syria.

How many times has Syria been sanctioned?

In 1979, the US designated Syria as a state sponsor of “terrorism” while al-Assad’s father, Hafez, was in power. In 2004, the regime was hit with additional targeted sanctions for its long-term occupation of Lebanon and for what Washington called its support for “terrorism.”

Shortly after mass protests against Bashar al-Assad erupted in 2011, the US and the EU imposed targeted sanctions against a handful of government officials in response to a brutal crackdown on the opposition.

USA and EU applied broader sanctions like Syria slid deeper into turmoil, affecting the central bank and the electricity and energy sectors.

These sanctions prevented the government from buying or trading money to stabilize its currency, keeping the lights on in much of the country and importing almost all forms of technology.

The US then passed the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2019, which effectively banned states and private companies from doing business with al-Assad’s government.

In addition, the US, the EU and the United Nations Security Council have designated HTS a “terrorist” group due to its former ties to al-Qaeda, which continues to make Western powers nervous about lifting sanctions.

Are these sanctions still valid?

They work.

Caesar Syria’s civil protection law and HTS’s “terrorist” designation are the most debilitating, according to Jerome Drevon, a Syria expert at the International Crisis Group (ICG).

The first, he said, indirectly affected all layers of the Syrian economy by effectively stopping the country from exporting or importing goods and raw materials.

The “terrorist” designation on HTS has a similar effect, he told Al Jazeera.

“Any transaction or investment in the country connected with the government [of HTS] … it can be viewed through the lens of supporting terrorism,” Drevon explained.

Are sanctions hurting aid operations?

very much.

According to Human Rights Watch (HRW), the US and the EU have issued a series of waivers to keep aid operations going, but the sanctions still have a deep impact on humanitarian groups.

Aid groups often have to navigate expensive bureaucratic hurdles to ensure banks and exporters don’t run afoul of US or EU sanctions, which carry hefty fines and the risk of jail time.

These obstacles often lead to long delays in aid deliveries inside Syria. Worse, the perceived risk of violating sanctions – even if there is an exemption – has a chilling effect that sharply limits the aid response.

Many banks and private companies prefer not to cooperate with aid agencies even when they are confident they will not violate US and EU sanctions, HRW said.

“Primary parties and financial institutions often avoid doing business, directly or indirectly, with Syrian individuals or entities even in non-sanctioned sectors,” HRW wrote in a report published last year.

Should the sanctions be lifted?

The new Syrian administration called the US and others to lift sanctions, saying the move would be vital to allowing Syria to rebuild.

Drevon argued that most of the sanctions should be removed.

He told Al Jazeera that the vast majority of sanctions that Syria is inheriting today were imposed to punish the al-Assad regime.

Those sanctions should be lifted, he said, now that the regime has disappeared.

Sanctions risk isolating Syria and forcing more civilians to take up arms and enter the illicit economy if viable alternatives are not available, Drevon warned.

“Sanctions threaten to destabilize the country in the medium term,” he told Al Jazeera. “And indeed, we have to imagine the extent to which armed groups could emerge in different parts of the country and engage in smuggling and the black market to make a living.”

Is it too late to lift sanctions?

The short answer is no.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the US made the move to issue a waiver to allow aid groups and private entities to bypass sanctions and increase aid efforts in the country.

The advocate, who did not want to be named, told Al Jazeera that based on discussions held with members of the US administration, the suspension of sanctions would be “broad” and effectively allow direct transactions with the current authorities.

ICG’s Drevon believes that the suspension of sanctions would also effectively allow for a number of business transactions with the government.

The suspension will last for about six months, and then the new administration of the newly elected US President Donald Trump will decide whether to maintain or lift the sanctions on Syria.

Drevon said the US move is a good first step, but more needs to be done to stabilize Syria during its delicate transition.

“You can suspend sanctions, but that will not necessarily encourage the private sector to invest,” Drevon told Al Jazeera. “To what extent can anyone invest long term if no one knows if the suspension will last long?”