At the end of the Gaza war in 2021, Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, was photographed sitting in an armchair in his destroyed home, a symbol of continued resistance to Israel.
Mr. Sinwar was killed in this latest war in Gaza, in which Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, has vowed to dismantle and destroy Hamas. And yet, as a cease-fire took effect on Sunday after 15 months of mass destruction and death, Hamas – badly wounded and weakened – survived and, for now at least, will remain in charge in Gaza.
Thousands of Hamas fighters have already come out of hiding and gathered to re-establish control.
“Frankly speaking, Hamas is not only still standing, it is still the most significant force in Gaza,” said Daniel Levy, a former Israeli negotiator and president of the US/Middle East Project, a research organization based in London and New York.
The situation highlights the fragility of the agreement reached with Mr. Netanyahu, who is facing enormous political pressure at home. It also comes as Donald J. Trump is set to become president again amid much uncertainty about how he plans to deal with a landscape in the Middle East that has been greatly altered since his first term in office.
And the war is not over. The three-phase ceasefire deal, largely unchanged from the plan President Biden announced eight months ago, is extremely fragile, as evidenced by the tension-filled delay to its start Sunday morning. 16 days will pass until the expected start of negotiations on the second phase.
The transition from this first phase to the second, which would really mark the actual end of the war, with the almost complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, is considered by many to be extremely difficult, even improbable, given the necessary concessions and political dynamics on both sides.
Mr. Trump has been credited by many with demanding that Mr. Netanyahu strike this deal now, giving the Israeli prime minister cover to do so. Will Mr. Whether Trump and his team, with so much else on their plate, will spend the time and energy to push through the next, most difficult phase remains unknown.
Mr. Trump will not want the fighting to continue while he is on duty, said Natan Sachs, director of the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. But Mr. Netanyahu, facing strong opposition to the deal within his own coalition, “does not want to end the war, and Hamas, too, intends to continue its military struggle and rearm,” Mr. Sachs.
Mr. Netanyahu is likely to look to any violation of the terms of the ceasefire by Hamas as “justification why the second phase cannot and will not happen,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House. , a research institute in London. “And it will be very tough about the terms of the Israeli withdrawal.”
The deal may end the fighting for now, but as in Lebanon, it gives Israel and its military “permanent freedom of action,” Ms. Vakil said, referring to ceasefire signed in November with Hezbollah, a militia based in Lebanon. Mr Netanyahu himself said on Saturday, in a speech to the nation, that Israel “reserves the right to continue fighting if Israel concludes that negotiations in the second phase are hopeless”.
Mr. Netanyahu has consistently refused to discuss who or what will rule Gaza in place of Hamas, essentially ceding territory to a group that Israel has spent the past 15 months trying to destroy, killing tens of thousands of people, civilians and fighters, in the process. The war broke out after Hamas led attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, killing around 1,200 people and capturing around 250 others.
Now back in control of Gaza, Hamas will effectively be in charge of a huge influx of humanitarian aid. Yahya Sinwar’s brother, Muhammad, now heads Hamas in Gaza.
And Mr. Trump will face a complicated and intricate choice about how much to stake his authority in the Middle East, especially if he wants, as he says he wants, to revive plans to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. A deal between the two countries appeared to be on the verge of happening before the Gaza war broke out.
Mustafa Barghouti, a member of the Palestinian Legislative Council, said the ceasefire agreement was good for Palestinians – “the killing will stop and the prisoners will be released from prison” and there will be an increase in humanitarian aid. But there were no guarantees that the deal would hold, he said, adding that the Palestinians “need a genuine process that leads to an end to the Israeli occupation” of both Gaza and the West Bank.
The Saudis made it clear during the war that they now demand concrete steps towards an independent Palestinian state, which Mr. Netanyahu has repeatedly vowed to prevent. And some of those around Mr. Trump favors further or even complete Israeli annexation of the West Bank, which could make a viable Palestinian state all but impossible. His candidate for ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, said during visit to Israel in 2017 that “there is no” West Bank or occupation.
“Annexing the West Bank would kill any chance of a two-state solution,” Mr. Barghouti said.
At some point, said Aaron David Miller, a former US diplomat now at the Carnegie Foundation, “Netanyahu will come into conflict with Trump, who wants a deal with the Saudis and Iran.”
Even the Gaza agreement represents a serious domestic political challenge for Mr. Netanyahu. One of the far-right parties in his coalition, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, has already resigned, promising to return only if the war starts again. If the other far-right coalition party, led by Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, also steps down, Mr. Netanyahu would lead a minority government for almost two years before the next election.
Besides Gaza, Mr. Netanyahu also faces two thorny domestic issues, a new budget and a bill to recruit Haredim, or ultra-Orthodox, ensuring conflict with far-right and religious parties. Budgeting is vital. If it is not adopted by the end of March, Mr. Sachs said, the ruling coalition automatically falls apart.
“There could be a real political crisis, so we could see Trump against Ben-Gvir and Smotrich as we approach the second phase,” Mr Sachs said.
Those political considerations could come to a head if Mr Trump decides to push through a deal with Saudi Arabia – and present Mr Netanyahu with a tough choice.
The Israeli leader could give in to his coalition partners, keep the deal and possibly anger his most important ally, the United States. Or he could dissolve the government and call elections based on working with Mr. Trump for more lasting regional peace – including real steps toward a Palestinian state.
That final option would pose a significant risk for Mr. Netanyahu, whose unpopularity among centrist voters forced him to join Mr. Ben-Gvir and Mr. Smotrich in the last election.
Above all hangs Iran, which is enriching uranium to the edge of weapons quality at a fast pace. Iran denies that it is aiming for a bomb, but it is severely weakened regionally and its economy is at a standstill. Both Israel and the United States have pledged to prevent any Iranian nuclear bomb, and there is a strong argument within Israel that now is the time to attack Iran.
But Mr Trump is seen as unlikely to want to be dragged into another war and is said to be open to a deal with a weakened Iran. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, was extending his hand to European diplomats and Trump officials to say his country also wants a deal on its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of punitive economic sanctions.
Mr. Trump is essentially unpredictable, Mr. Sachs. Mr Netanyahu and the Israelis, he said, “will face a US president who will certainly be very pro-Israel – and whose favor they want to curry – but who will also be forceful in demanding whatever he thinks is in his interest. “
