Fed has been meeting for the first time since Trump’s term began. What to expect

Federal reserves are gathering for the first time in the second presidential term this week Donald Trump, Who has already signaled that he wants lower interest rates.

If almost every indicator is almost every indicator, the new free world leader is unlikely to get what he wants, at least not, because officials weigh more variables that could make it difficult to make politics this year and will probably keep the Fed on hold.

“They are likely to take the last place,” said US Bank chief economist Beth Ann Bovino. “Nobody knows what to expect from the White House. Politics movements are still very unclear, but we know that many suggestions discussed in the White House are a bit inflator, and I think it will keep the FED in the check.”

Indeed, market prices indicate almost 100%certainty that the Federal Committee for Setting the Federal Committee on the open market will retain the Central Bank’s policy rate at a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, according to CME group data.

In fact, traders see Fed on hold by June, range during which Trump plans For tariffs, regulations and immigration are likely to appear more clearly. Trump said on Thursday that he would “demand that interest rates immediately fall“Although there is no authority for the Fed decisions.

The Fed reduced rates at each of the last three meetings, reducing its short -term borrowing rate for a full percentage point. The rate on the rate will be announced on Wednesday at 2:00 pm.

Despite the pressure of the White House, the central bankers should stick firmly and rest from the change of politics, said former President Dallas Feda Robert Kaplan.

“It’s a real call to stay stable. Inflation progress may not stop, but you are going aside, and you are four or five major structural changes and will soon take place,” said Kaplan, now executive director of Goldman Sachs, on Monday UA interview CNBC. “The right thing to do is do nothing at this meeting.”

Kaplan quoted three changes that could be disinforceable: a decrease in state consumption, a regulatory overview of the newly acquired advisory council called the Ministry of the Government, and Trump’s approach to “drilling” energy drilling, as well as expected efforts for the sector architecture to be more efficient.

On the side of inflation, Kaplan sees potential for tariffs In order to increase prices, while mass deportations – Which week started serious – it could increase labor costs.

“What Trump would obviously like to accelerate their analysis, accelerate their assessment of these new policies and act before, even from what they are comfortable with,” Kaplan said. “The job of people in the FED, in this case, is to perform their analysis and do not act until you have confidence.”

This meeting will not contain an update of quarterly economic projections of the Fed, including the “DOT Parcel” assessment of individual members for where interest rates are being kept. On Meeting in DecemberParticipants reduced the expected number of decreasing rates to two out of four earlier, assuming that each incision is made in a quarter percentage point steps.

Investors will be left to be delayed through a statement after a meeting, which is expected to change a little and then turn on the chair Jerome Powell ‘From a press conference at 2:30 pm.

Powell had a controversial relationship with Trump during the president’s first round in the oval office, from 2017 to 2021, and he is likely to be asked to respond to the president’s request for lower rates.

“The Fed must follow its legislative term,” former President Kansas City Feda Esther George said on Friday in an interview on Friday. “The Congress told us that he had brought prices to a low and stable level. In the long run, this institution must think about these goals, not to be annoyed by external comments and political pressure that will come to the path, as well as its whole existence. “