Investing.com — January will be a pivotal month in US politics, with some key events on the horizon.
In a note this week, TD Cowen pointed to four developments that will dominate the headlines and potentially reshape policy direction.
Trump’s return to the presidency
Donald Trump will officially begin his term as president on January 20. According to TD Cowen, “numerous executive orders” are expected on the first day, including one to freeze pending federal rules.
The bank believes these orders are unlikely to affect independent agencies like the Federal Reserve. Trump is also expected to make key appointments to agencies such as the SEC, CFPB and FHFA, with potential surprises in areas such as immigration and international relations.
Key appointments for financial policy
The continuation of Trump’s appointments to key financial positions is another focus. As TD Cowen notes, “Personnel was policy in the first Trump administration,” highlighting the importance of his picks for roles such as Comptroller of the Currency, FHA Director, and FDIC Chairman. These appointments are expected to set the tone for financial regulation and policy in the coming months.
Election of the President of the Chamber
The GOP will be working on a House Speaker pick, with Mike Johnson as the top contender. However, TD Cowen points out that the margin for victory is very small, as Johnson needs 218 votes if all members participate. “The margin is so tight that the risk is heightened,” warns TD Cowen, suggesting potential turbulence in the process.
Postponement of cannabis hearing
The DEA’s proceedings will move into the testimony phase regarding the potential reclassification of cannabis as a Schedule 3 substance. TD Cowen expects this to generate headlines, although any final decision will rest with the Trump administration.
“We continue to believe that the Trump team will support moving cannabis to Schedule 3, although we may have to wait until late in the year to act,” the bank said.
