Google’s recent announcement the arrival of Willowquantum chip that reduced error tendencies of some of its predecessors, it is a milestone in the effort to bring quantum computing to the real world, and for years to come, it could change the way we think about risk in cryptocurrencies.
Willow’s speed is almost incomprehensible – according to Googleit is capable of performing a calculation in less than five minutes that would take one of today’s fastest supercomputers 10 septillion years to solve. Ten septillion is 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years.
But the accuracy of quantum computing has also been a big problem so far, with the quantum like a garden hose full of fire and no one holding it: water comes out fast, but its aim is not consistently accurate. Willow’s combination of speed and accuracy could theoretically give hackers the tools to unlock the algorithms on which bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are built.
Qubits and bitcoin can co-exist, for now
If you don’t understand (few people do) what constitutes quantum computing — qubits — security firm DigiCert’s technology strategist Tim Hollebeek has a simplified way of thinking about the breakthrough. He says imagine a maze and how a classic computer would try to find its way through the maze from start to finish. He would try one potential path at a time. “A quantum computer would be able to try each path at the same time, resulting in a much faster solution,” Hollebeek said.
While Willow it may not be ready for real-world applications Still, Willow’s speed and accuracy will help pave the way for larger-scale quantum computers.
“Part of the problem with qubits is that they are unstable and produce errors. This chip has significant error correction capabilities, which alleviates some of the problems with qubits,” Hollebeek said.
That means chips improved after Willow’s discovery will be able to help hackers target cryptocurrencies — but at least for now, the concern is only theoretical.
“Quantum computers can theoretically solve this much faster and pose a threat to today’s cryptographic algorithms if a quantum computer with enough qubits can be developed,” Hollebeek said. But he added that the real reason you can breathe easier today if you own cryptocurrency is simple. “None exist today and none are expected for at least another 5, 10, 15 years,” he said, with the earliest five-year timeline contingent on some unforeseen technological advance.
A decade of crypto leadership
A Google spokesperson told CNBC that Willow and crypto can co-exist. “The Willow chip is not capable of breaking modern cryptography,” he said, adding that it is also Google’s view that quantum technology with this capability is still a long way off.
In fact, according to Park Feierbach, a decentralized financial technology expert who is the CEO of Radiant Commons, even if Willow could drastically increase the speed at which cryptocurrency could be hacked, it would still require a quantum universe several times older. chip for that. According to NASA, the universe is 13.7 billion years old.
“There’s almost no reason to implement Willow on this technology in a way that could make visible progress. It would simply still take too long,” Feierbach said.
“It is estimated that we are at least 10 years away from cracking RSA and that it would require about 4 million physical qubits,” a Google spokesperson said. RSA is an encryption system used in cryptocurrencies.
For reference, Google’s processors now have around 100 physical qubits.
‘Quantum-safe’ algorithms
A Google spokesperson emphasized that the timeline for quantum discoveries is widely known and has not been changed by Willow.
“Google is on track with our planned plan,” he said. “The security community has long been aware of the projected timeline for breaking asymmetric encryption and is working to define standards and jointly implement new algorithms that will resist classical and quantum computer attacks,” the spokesperson added.
Indeed, Hollebeek says the crypto industry is working on “quantum-safe” crypto.
The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has released several quantum-secure algorithms that are immune to attacks from future quantum computers, Hollebeek said, and NIST has deadlines for governments and industry to implement these algorithms to ensure the nation’s security. and trade secrets.
“Google and other industry leaders supported standardization and experimented with algorithms in their design,” a Google spokesperson said.
Despite how efficient quantum is at unlocking algorithms (traditional crypto equations based on breaking down huge primes), it is not infallible and that is what the promise of quantum secure crypto lies in.
“They’re really, really good at some things, but not everything,” Hollebeek said, noting that cracking conventional asymmetric cryptography is simply one of the things they’re really good at. “Fortunately, there are other hard math problems where they’re bad at, and asymmetric cryptography can be updated to use those hard math problems instead of factoring,” he said.
Taqi Raza, assistant professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, said existing cryptocurrencies will have to evolve to protect themselves against qubits. “As the potential of quantum computers to break existing cryptography becomes a growing concern, new cryptocurrencies specifically designed to be quantum secure could be developed. These new quantum cryptos would integrate PQC, cryptographic algorithms that are resistant to the computational power of quantum computers,” she said. Ray.
Jeremy Allaire, co-founder, president and CEO of digital currency firm Circle, told CNBC in an interview last week that the risk is real, but his outlook remains focused on the opportunities that will develop. “The bottom line is that quantum crypto means you can unlock things more easily, things that had bad old locks, but you can also create better locks,” Allaire said. “So quantum crypto – this quantum is actually going to be a huge turbocharger for crypto computing, for crypto applications, and for crypto money.”
Raza believes that ultimately, the more sweeping changes brought about by quantum computing will happen outside of crypto. Breakthroughs will make devices and software faster, revolutionize AI and improve data security with ultra-secure encryption methods. There will be advances in computing, healthcare, energy and security in everyday life, Raza said, and as a result, the crypto industry is not one we should think about in isolation while these changes are still unfolding. “They are likely to transform industries,” he said.
