Maduro and Trump: Two inaugurations for two rivals on a collision course | News about Nicolas Maduro

Bogotá, Colombia – On January 10, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is scheduled to be sworn in for a third term, after contested election full of accusations of fraud and repression.

But as Venezuela prepares for a controversial inauguration, Maduro has repeatedly spent time on state media addressing an old adversary: ​​the former president of the United States Donald Trump.

Trump is scheduled to be sworn in for a second term on January 20, just days after Maduro.

The two often exchanged insults during Trump’s first term, from 2017 to 2021. But after Trump’s recent re-election in November, Maduro struck a surprising tone.

He publicly congratulated Trump and called the Republican second term “a new beginning”. He also urged Trump to cultivate a relationship imbued with “respect, common-sense dialogue and understanding.”

Experts say the comments suggest the two strongman-style leaders may be forging a different relationship this time around.

That could be especially critical for Maduro, who faces mounting pressure after his contested electionsincluding from the USA.

“Maduro seems to be leaving the door open for a more pragmatic approach by the Trump administration,” said Laura Dib, a Venezuela expert at the Washington Office on Latin America, a US research and advocacy organization.

The ‘Maximum Pressure’ campaign

However, it remains unclear how Trump will act when it comes to Venezuela.

During his first term, Trump pursued a “maximum pressure” strategy against Maduro, in an apparent effort to oust the socialist leader.

Trump, a right-wing leader, has taken a hostile approach towards socialist and communist countries such as China and Cuba, even reversing efforts to normalize relations with the latter.

But it is growing humanitarian crisis in Venezuela — and continuing accusations of government repression — paved the way for Trump to go further than previous administrations in his efforts against Maduro.

He increased sanctions against beleaguered Venezuela oil sectorfroze the assets of Maduro’s inner circle and even issued a reward of up to 15 million dollars for information that could lead to the arrest of the President of Venezuela.

In addition, when Maduro faced an earlier contested election in 2018, Trump recognized the then-opposition leader’s rival claim to the presidency Juan Guaido.

“Maduro is an illegitimate ruler, a tyrant who brutalizes his people,” Trump he said in his 2020 State of the Union address, while praising Guaid. “But Maduro’s grip on tyranny will be shattered and broken.”

‘Something must be done differently’

At first glance, Trump’s choice for secretary of state, Senator Marco Rubiomay signal a return to this hardline approach.

Rubio, whose family fled Cuba as refugees, has long been a critic of the governments of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. He previously advocated for tougher sanctions.

But analysts doubt Trump will support the same “maximum pressure” strategy that failed to oust Maduro and contributed to a record outflow of Venezuelan migrants and refugees.

Some critics blame Trump’s oil sanctions against Venezuela for exacerbating its economic crisiswhich helped fuel the exodus. The United Nations now estimates that more than 7.77 million Venezuelans have fled beyond the borders of their country.

The number of Venezuelans entering the US without authorization has also jumped, almost up 17 percent every year from 2018 to 2022. The total population in the US is estimated to be around 320,000 people.

Trump, meanwhile, stopped “invasion of migrants” in the USA, the central goal of his second term.

“I don’t think the Trump administration can take over and try to do the same thing it did in 2019 and 2020,” said Benigno Alarcón, director of the center for political studies at Andrés Bello Catholic University in Caracas, Venezuela. “Something has to be done differently.”

Since Venezuelans are among the largest nationalities irregularly crossing the US-Mexico border, Trump’s policy toward Maduro is likely to be influenced by his interest in curbing migration.

“The focus on Venezuela seems to be through the lens of migration,” Dib said of Trump’s second term.

Solving migration in Venezuela

The question remains whether Trump will work with Maduro to achieve his goals.

Trump is reportedly facing pressure from energy lobbyists to restore diplomatic relations with oil-rich Venezuela.

And experts say Trump will need Maduro’s cooperation if he hopes to get his way “mass deportation” plan.expelling millions of undocumented migrants from the US.

Venezuela has refused to accept deportation flights from the US since February, after the North American country reimpose certain Trump-era sanctions on its economy.

Citing anonymous sources, The Washington Post reported in November that Maduro’s government may be willing to resume deportation flights under Trump — but only if Trump offers economic relief in turn.

Supporters of Maduro’s government have claimed that exemption from US sanctions could help stabilize the country and reduce the exodus.

But Tamara Taraciuk Broner, a Venezuela expert at the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based think tank focused on Latin America, is skeptical of that argument. She believes that the main cause of Venezuela’s instability is Maduro himself.

“People will not stay in Venezuela because of more oil production and money coming in.” [when] there are no guarantees that this money will reach the people who are suffering,” said Taraciuk.

She pointed out that the disputed presidential elections in Venezuela on July 28 coincided with an increase in the desire to leave.

Venezuela’s National Electoral Council, controlled by Maduro’s allies, declared him the winner hours after the polls closed, without providing the usual breakdown of votes at the constituency level.

This lack of transparency has led to mistrust and accusations of electoral fraud against Maduro’s government. Protests erupted, and Maduro responded by unleashing a wave of repression that resulted in the deaths of 28 people and the arrest of nearly 2,000 more.

In August, as the crackdown unfolded, a poll by the research firm Meganálisis showed that about 40 percent of Venezuelans thought they might leave the country.

That political crisis, Taraciuk said, explained the reasons for Venezuelans to migrate elsewhere.

“People are leaving again for political reasons,” she added. “And migration is expected to increase even more after January 10 if there is no transition of power.”

‘Turning the Choice Page’

The contested presidential race also left Maduro grappling with the political fallout.

The election’s lack of transparency has been widely criticized, even by Maduro’s allies. The left-leaning leaders of both Colombia and Brazil, for example, initially refused to recognize Maduro’s victory.

Instead, they joined international calls for an end to the vote counting.

Colombia recently announced that a representative would attend Maduro’s inauguration in January, in what analysts said was a move to maintain diplomatic relations between the neighboring countries.

Under diplomatic pressure, the Maduro administration released hundreds of detained protesters and announced last week that it would review dozens more cases.

With Maduro increasingly isolated, Trump’s return to the US presidency could pose an additional challenge.

The Venezuelan leader’s decision to release some prisoners could be a sign that he may be willing to compromise with Trump, Dib said. But Maduro may also be driven by a desire to improve his public image.

“What I think Maduro is more interested in is turning the page on the July 28 election and maintaining some kind of authority in relation to the international community,” Dib said.

She pointed to the October 2023 Barbados Agreement as evidence that Maduro is willing to negotiate, even with his staunch international rivals.

That year, Maduro struck a deal with the current US president, Democrat Joe Biden, to ease some sanctions and allow limited oil sales from Venezuela, in exchange for free and fair elections.

The US eventually considered it Venezuela failed of the terms of the Barbados Agreement. But Dib said the deal itself could be seen as a sign of hope.

“If we’ve learned anything since the signing of the Barbados agreement, it’s that Maduro is willing, but not necessarily interested, to be isolated.”

For now, anticipation is building for Maduro’s inauguration, which experts say could spark more unrest.

But despite the outcry, Maduro has offered no indication that he will step down. And Trump may continue his campaign to loosen Maduro’s grip on power in his second term.

“Maduro and his government decided to wait and see,” Dib said.