Canelo, ‘The Monster’ Inoue, Tank Davis and other not-so-accurate boxing predictions for 2025.
Per Frank Bay: The masses are clamoring for the boxing mega event of the year, Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence ‘Bud’ Crawford, in 2025. Well, not so much. Boxing hasn’t had a legitimate major crossover event since the recent Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson circus event and the 2023 Gervonta ‘Tank’ Davis vs. Ryan Garcia mega-event, which was rumored to hit the 1 million PPV buys milestone. And let’s be honest, Davis vs. Garcia wasn’t a mega event like the last true crossover event with the mass appeal of Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao.
Canelo is the latest of the PPV boxing stars as the model for success changes due to streaming, such as the Paul vs. Tyson event on Netflix. But the last time Alvarez hit the million mark was against Gennady Golovkin in their second fight during the HBO days in 2018. Since then, Alvarez’s numbers have dropped, and he’s only reaching around 500k to 650k reported PPVs. It’s only approaching a million, with Caleb Plant at 800,000 in 2021, which seems about 20 years ago, given the current boxing landscape with no more Showtime or HBO.
The fights are well debated and the fight that Bud and Turki Al-Shiekh are looking for is Canelo Alvarez. But honestly, it’s not a mega event that would reach the gold standard of 1 million, considering how every Bud PPV has flopped without Errol Spence, with the supposed fight with Israil Madrimov doing a measly 150k PPV buys. Turki took a blood bath at the event, reportedly losing millions even with a stacked undercard and an Eminem performance. The reality is that the fight is not a cross-over fight and would probably max out at 750k PPV. The only other reality is the David Benavidez fight, which would probably max out at 800k since it’s not a huge cross-over event, considering Benny’s PPVs are down a lot, reportedly 75k for his fight with Demetrius Andrade on November 25, 2023 .
The truth is that Alvarez is in no man’s land, and his options as an opponent of Dmitri Bivol or Artur Beterbiev make less than his fight against Edgar Berlanga because, on the national side, Berlanga was the bigger name. I can’t offer a sound prediction as the future looks bleak for Alvarez and his choice of opponents in 2025. A Jake Paul fight would be the way to go as it could compete for the Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao crossover that boxing desperately needs. Alvarez’s current 168lb division has decent fighters but lacks star appeal in Christian Mbilli, Diego Pacheco and unknowns in Osleys Iglesias and William Scull. No one would be willing to pay Alvarez north of $35 million to fight on PPV. If we want to get a MEGA Bud vs. Canelo fight, Turki Al-Shiekh will have to raise at least $100 million to get the US market interested. If anyone can, it’s Turki.
Moving on to the A-list of boxing stars, we have ‘The Monster’ Naoya Inoue and Tank Davis. The sad truth is that I don’t see any other opponent but one other to become a real star. Inoue, boxing’s number 1, has reached his limit. Maybe Top Rank envisioned another meteoric rise like Pac-Man because Inoue has the Asian market like Manny, but he can’t break through weight class after weight class, which was never fair to expect from him. But if Inoue is to have a breakout fight, it’s one tank, Davis, who exists in fantasyland. Inoue has good opponents ahead of him at 126, with Bruce Carrington and Rafael ‘El Divino’ Espinoza. However, none of those fights will enrage the American media like Manny did with his name rivals Erika Morales and Marco Antonio Barrera. Look for Inoue to play it safe in 2025 and set up a showdown with Junto Nakatani across the land of the rising sun.
Last and certainly not least is Tank Davis, who has done nothing to claim his throne as the face of boxing after the huge success of his Ryan Garcia affair. The win over Frank Martin didn’t do him any favors after he lost steam and took a year off after being in the heat, and that fight reportedly did less than 200k PPV. With Vasily Lomachenko deciding to sit out and fix his back, Davis is left without a viable name to sell his PPV event. He decided to pick Lamont Roach, and now, with multiple cancellations, people are wondering if the fight will even happen in 2025. Davis must know he needs a big name in 2025, but there aren’t many besides the man he already beat, Ryan Garcia. The reality is that other names are not stars like Ryan. Shakur Stevenson, Teofimo Lopez and Devin Haney are all damaged goods. With Manny Pacquiao rumored to be returning, the obvious mega cross-over event will be Pac-Man vs. Tank Davis. A Manny vs. Davis fight would put Davis ahead of Alvarez, but something tells me that Davis and his handlers want to play it safe like they always have. Note dare, nothing lost.
