Decide whether to have children is a deep personal choice for any individual, but an increasing resistance to becoming parents now represents Challenges to society as a whole.
The birth rate in the US fell for more than half Since the 1960s. According to St. Louis FedSixty years ago, about 24 babies were born on 1,000 people, in 2022 that figure was 11.
This fall – combined with the fact that the population of the nation lives longer –is a serious concern for economists Whoever calls into question how economics will function with fewer people who are available for work.
Melinda Mills is a professor of the Demography and Health of the population at the Health Department of Oxford University. Mills explains: “Permanent low fertility combined with longer life results in the aging of the population.
“This causes stress in the labor market such as health care for the older population, closing schools, reconsideration of housing and infrastructure and rethinking pension systems and pension age.”
The resulting decline in GDP from this population’s aging could be as much as 4%, said James Pomeroy, HSBC’s global economist, he said Business Insider.
Do Americans have fewer children?
Previously experts They believed that economics would see a post-cosid “baby”, triggered by a short move born in 2021.
But data from 2022 and 2023. They were clearly a clear birth Returning to his trend before pandemia With couples who are increasingly choosing a dual -income lifestyle (DINK), as CDC reported last year that in 2023 the American fertility rate fell to a historic low than About 55 births For every 1,000 females between the ages of 15 and 44.
“In a low -fernity scenario, the number of people of traditional working age could begin to fall within 20 years,” Pomeroy wrote in his last note on this topic, although Mills warned the tension between the smaller birth and the elderly.
She explained that many countries are already struggling to fill in healthcare positions, which have previously relied on to migrants workers.
“It happened in the UK, for example, where 2022. About 33% of migrants worked in the healthcare system,” Mills, DirectorLeverhulme Center for Demographic Sciencesaid Wealth.
“It also caused political tensions, and countries have increasingly faced elections related to the maintenance of labor and pension systems, and at the same time consider re -residing or calling the existing inactive population in the labor market.”
For HSBC’s Pomeroy, this will have concrete efforts in the daily lives of people: “You will find it harder to find someone to cut your hair, make nails, set up X-ray machines in the hospital. A pure decrease in people’s number … it’s becoming a problem.”
What do millennials have fewer children?
Young people have a lot of reasons not to want children right now: expensive care of children, Inaccessible apartments market,, High cost of foods And the basic household houses, career disorders and concerns for the future of the planet.
AND PEW study study Since July 2024. He has been talking to more than 3000 people who either have no children or do not plan.
Of those between the ages of 18 and 49 – which mostly fall into generations of gene Z and Millennial – who said they did not plan to have children, the main reason is that they simply did not want to or wanted to focus on other things.
In addition, 38% said they did not want to have children because they were concerned about the state of the world, and 36% said they could not afford to raise a child.
A further 26% said they did not want to have children for the care of the environment, and 24% said they would not have children because they did not find the right partner.
One of the factors that affects the birth rate is the increasing power and influence in the economy.
Mills explains: “The main reasons are numerous, including the shifts of such women who receive higher education and remain in the labor market, coordination of working families, but also housing problems, gender equality and uncertainty for the future.
“The age of the first birth is also above 30 in many countries for women, and even more for men at 32 and more. It also causes more and more biological fertility limits.”
A couple asking if they could have a career and a child
Another consideration of many Dink couples is the freedom where they can enjoy their careers if they do not have the pressure of children.
Heather Maclean and her husband Scott KyrishsaidWealth 2023 The choice that they do not have children has allowed them to have access to roses and gardeners in their careers – the idea that, although one person can grow and risk it, the other remains a stable fan.
“I never thought I would leave my job to try to write a book. I never saw something I saw as an option,” Maclean said.
“But then I took the time to think about what I really wanted to do if I could do anything, and it took a lot of convincing and months of belief that I could take my free time and afford it, to decide to do it.”
Version of this story originally published on Fortune.com November 19, 2024.
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This story is originally shown on Fortune.com
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