The unexpected effect of Trump’s minerals deals with

The return of Donald Trump to the White House “is a big blow to a global climate action.” So said Christiana Figueres, a former UN climate chief after being elected in November.

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Ever since he assumed his duty, Trump has now withdrawn from what is considered to be the most important global climate pound, the Paris Climate Agreement. He also allegedly prevented US scientists from participating in international climatic research and removed national electric vehicles.

In addition, he tried to develop his predecessor with a new green technology “green new fraud”.

Yet, despite his history on the issue of climate, Trump wanted to make an agreement with the Ukrainian president on critical minerals. He was also strongly interested in Greenland and Canada – both countries rich in critical minerals.

The critical procurement of minerals has been the main focus for Trump since he has taken his post. These minerals are crucial in industries, including aviation and defense, but intriguing, they also have other great use – to produce green technology.

Can Trump’s focus on getting these minerals have an effect and help unlock the US potential in the green technology sector?

Trump’s gums understand more than most of the importance of critical minerals in the green crossing. Space X and Tesla – Elon Musk leads – to a large extent rely on critical minerals such as graffiti (in electric vehicles), lithium (in batteries) and nickel (in rockets).

Elizabeth Holley, an associate professor of mining engineering at Colorado School of Mines, explains that each nation has its own list of critical minerals, but they generally seem rare countries and other metals like lithium.

He says the demand is flourishing – 2023 demand for a lithium increased by 30%. This is mainly guided by the rapid growth of the pure energy sector and electric vehicles.

Within two decades, it will make almost 90% of the demand for lithium, 70% demand for cobalt and 40% for rare countries, the International Energy Agency states.

Such is the concern of the masculine because of adherence to some of these minerals, which he tweeted three years ago: “The price of lithium went to a crazy level! Tesla would actually have to go into mining and refinement directly into the scale, unless the costs improve.”

He continued to write that he was not lacking element, but the pace of extraction is slow.

The weakness of the United States Rare countries and critical minerals (such as Kobalt and Nikla) ​​was resolved in a report published in December 2023. It was said: “The United States must re -examine their political approach to critical mineral and rare earthly elements because of the risk that our stable republican republics set up on the people.”

Failure to do so, he warned, could cause “defense defense to stop and stifle the production of other advanced technologies.”

The Chinese dominance on the market was created from early recognition of the economic circumstances offered by Green Technology.

“China made a decision about 10 years ago on where the trend started and strategically continued the development of not only renewable sources, but also electric vehicles, and now dominates the market,” says Bob Ward, director of politics at the London School of Economics (LSE) Grantham Research Institute for Climate Change and the Environment.

Daisy Jennings-Gray, Head of the Price Agency for Benchmark Mineral Intelligence Agency, explains that they are critical minerals because they are geologically limited. “You cannot guarantee that you will have economically recovery reserves in every country.”

Some minerals like lithium are abundant on Earth, but are often located in heavy separate places, so the logistics of a mining project can be very expensive. In other cases, there is an addiction to one country that produces a large proportion of global supply – such as a cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo. This means that if there is a natural disaster or political unrest, it affects the price, says Ms. Jennings-Gray.

China has been able to increase the supply of investing in Africa and South America, but where it really has a market foothold is in processing (or separation of minerals from other elements in the rock).

“China makes up 60% of global production of rare countries but processes almost 90% – [it] is dominant at this stage, “says Gracelin Baskaran, director of the Critical Security Mineral Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

He says that the country understands how important this is in the economic trade – a few days after Trump introduced tariffs at China, his government returned by imposing export controls to more than 20 critical minerals, including graphite and Volfram.

What motivates Trump is the fear of an unfavorable position, according to Christopher Knittel, a professor of applied economy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

“I think what’s running is because China is a dominant player on the side of the processing,” he says. “It’s a processing phase, which is a high margin phase, so China makes a lot of money.”

As he says, it is a “happy coincidence” that it could eventually support green technology.

The key question is, however, whether they are now too late to use the sector full.

In the early days, the green transition was “framed as a burden” for countries, according to LSE -ov Bob Ward.

The Administration of Biden was a great support for green technology industry by introducing the Law on Reducing Inflation (IRA) in August 2022, which offers tax reliefs, loans and other incentives by technologies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions, from electric vehicles for solar panels.

By August 2024, it was estimated that he had brought $ 493 billion (£ 382 billion) to the US Green Industry, an investment of investment, according to Think Tank Clean Investment Monitor.

Yet, a little job was done to support upstream processes such as getting critical minerals, says Mrs. Gray of Benchmark Intelligence. Instead, Biden administration has largely focused on the production of downstream – the process of obtaining a product from the manufacturer to the end consumer.

But Trump’s recent moves to procure these critical minerals suggest that the focus on the process of upstream can now occur.

“Ira has placed a lot of legislation in places to limit trade and supply only from friendly peoples,” explains Mrs. Gray.

“Trump changes Tack and looks at the insurance of critical mineral agreements that owe something now.”

They could be further moves from Trump coming down the line. Those who work in the sector say that the whispers in the corridors of the White House suggest that he may bring a “critical executive order of minerals”, which could direct further investment in this goal.

The accurate details that may be involved in the executive command remain unclear, but experts who know with this problem have said that they may include measures to accelerate mining in the US, including fast -monitoring licenses and investments to build a processing plant.

Although it may now be up to provide these minerals, Prof Willy Shih of the Harvard Business School believes that the US administration has no understanding of the technical complexity of establishing chains to supply mineral supply and emphasize the necessary time commitment. “If you want to build a new mine and processing, you may take 10 years.”

As the policy of his predecessor and the one who is so obviously a pro-climate of action, Trump has loudly opposed the maintenance of IRA. But his success in the Red States means that many Republican senators tried to convince him to hold him in some form in his proposed “great, beautiful law” – planning to push all Trump’s main goals in one mega -bill – which should be discovered later this month.

Analysis of pure investment monitor shows that in the last 18 months of the Republican state they have received 77% of investment.

MIT -ov Dr. Knittel tells states like Georgia, which became part of what is known today as a “battery belt” after booming in the production of battery after the support of IRA, these tax reliefs are key to these industries.

He adds that failure to do so is a real political threat for US representatives who have been re -choice for less than two years.

If Trump loses even only one place for Democrats in the middle of 2026, then loses most of the house – limiting his ability to pass Key Laws.

Carl Fleming was an adviser to the Advisory Committee on Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency of former President Biden and is a partner at McDermott, Will & Emery’s law firm, advising clients in pure technological and energy space. He says that despite the uncertainty, investors remain safe. “In the last month, my practice has been busy than ever, which is a four -time last year after Ira.”

He also believes that there is a recognition of the need for maintaining parts of IRA -e – although it may be with the spread of some fossil fuels. “If you are really trying to be a” American First “and Energy Safe, you want to pull all your lever. Hold solar energy and continue storage of battery and add more natural gas to release American energy skills.”

But the uncertainty of the American position is a little comfort because of his absence on the international climate stage, says Lse’s Bob Ward. “When the Americans are on the ball, it helps to move people in the right direction and so we got a Paris climate agreement.”

For those in the climatic space, Trump is certainly not an ecologist. What is clear is that he does not deal with the inheritance to become environmentally friendly, but economic – although he could achieve the ex if he can be convinced that he will increase the economy.

Credit on top image: Getty Images

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