Apple has big plans for India – but Trump’s tariffs could change that
Customers are waiting outside the Apple store on the eve of working hours during the first day of selling a smartphone of the iPhone 15 in Mumbai, India, Friday, September 2, 2023.
Dhiraj Singh | Bloomberg | Getty Images
This is a report from this week’s newsletter “India” CNBC that brings you timely, discerning news and comments on the market at a new power plant and large companies behind your meteoric climb. As you see? You can subscribe here.
A big story
The general consensus was that US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi managed to go to Washington last month. What went wrong – and why was Apple caught in the middle?
To accelerate everyone – it seems that trade conversations are falling apart between the two countries on the eve of the deadline of April 2 when Trump’s reciprocal tariffs in India will come into force.
Trump has long criticized India for his high tariffs, among the highest in Asia. Barclays analysis shows that the weighted average of Indian tariffs is 11.5%. The second key concern for Washington is a growing deficit of the USA-India store.
Last week, Indian trade minister Piyush Goyal went to Washington to introduce further concessions, including a reduction in the key imports to the USA in the United States that, in exchange, India will be approved by an approved exemption from the reciprocal tariff of Washington. However, the Trump trade team does not seem to help, according to sources near New Delhi. It is the raising of the alarm bell.
The technological industry can lose – especially Apple, which produces approximately 15% of its iPhones in India, according to estimates of Bank of America analysts.
The finished smartphones entering India are currently facing 16%-20%tariff, while the tariffs on Indian phones are sold in the US 0%according to Barclays.
“If the Indian export of smartphones, who have recently picked up-solely with similar tariffs in the USA [Indian] Electronic industry, turning the entire cinema+1 narrative, “according to Venugopal Garre, Bernstein’s head of Indian research.
Garre believes that the additional cost of tariffs will make Indian electronics, including iPhone devices manufactured in the country, less competitive compared to devices manufactured in other countries.
Rejuvenation of the Indian Manufacturing Sector
Bank of American analysts also believe that the proposed tariffs to India is likely to increase the iPhone prices.
That’s important. Apple is a child of the Indian production revitalization poster, which many see as a study study that a foreign company can win in the country. Goyal headed for Apple’s success when setting up US semiconducting companies to extend to India.
Nvidia is currently cooperating with Indian Reliance Industries on AI Research, while AMD and Micron committed to expand in India. Executive Director of the Apple Tim Cook, who has grown a strong relationship with Modi, went to the ground To open four retail stores in 2023.
India has played an important role in helping Apple’s diversification of its supply chain and becomes less dependent on China. In addition to the iPhone, he began production of other product products, including iPad and Airpods.
“45% of Apple’s total revenue was built in China, but they want to reduce it to 30%,” said Gene Munster, a management partner at Deepwater Asset Management, on CNBC over the phone. However, experts said the larger tariffs could challenge Apple’s expansion and reduce the overall return of the company in India.
“I suppose Apple would like to send a message to New Delhi to motivate them to negotiate and encourage the same tariff structure,” said Patrick Moorhead, the higher technology director and the co -founder of TheSixfivedia.
CNBC reached out to Apple to comment and he couldn’t hear it.
Moorhead studies Apple’s supply chain and believes he has the ability to move some production between his Asian production locations across India, China and Vietnam, if necessary.
At this point, the only country that was more isolated than the tariff would be Vietnam, which is probably due to low trade imbalance between the US -A Vietnam, Moorhead CNBC said over the phone.
Minimize the influence of tariffs
There are other options.
When looking at potential strategies that technological companies can use to limit the influence of Chinese tariffs, analysts Morgan Stanley write that one alternative is to deliver “American connection near finished goods from China to a third party country before declaring goods completed.”
The same could relate to India.
If a trade war reaches speed, technological companies can also be encouraged not only to explore the diversification of their supply chain in one to two additional countries, but three or four, to ensure that they can turn as needed. That’s certainly a big endeavor. Setting up a store in a new country can take three to five years. As the experts of the supply chain shared with CNBC, it takes time to establish a new plant, build relationships with local suppliers and hire a real talent, and as long as they receive the necessary approval from the local government.
However, with Tariffs becoming more and more economic weapons of choice, multinational companies like Apple may have to use their pile of money to spread their production trace even more than they already had. China+1 may need to change to Cinema+3.
This could mean that Apple produces smaller phones in India than previously estimated.
The flexibility of the supply chain, although expensive, could be the key to the weather for a tariff storm for Apple. What does this in Indian ambitions to become a destination for companies that want to move out of China is completely another matter.
You need to know
Inflation in India is falling more than expected in February. Earth Consumer prices index came out 3.61% On an annual basis, the Ministry of Statistics and the implementation of the program said on Wednesday. The economists interviewed Reuters expected a 3.98% reading reading. This is the first time since last summer that inflation came below the goal of the India’s spare bank of 4% and indicates the lowest monthly print of July 2024.
Benefits of including the Indian National Stock Exchange. Entrepreneurs or startup founders should take advantage of Indian advantages and list on the Indian National Stock Converge live Event in Singapore on Wednesday. India is at a place where “a lot of brain, a lot of businesses and very few capital,” he said, pointing out that it wasE Indian market has had the largest number of censuses in the world 2024..
Indusind Bank seeks peace after noting an accounting departure. The lender informed Indian exchanges on March 10th that he had discovered during an internal examination question regarding the duty trade positions. As a result of the backlog, the bank estimates that its net value will hit 2.5%. However, Indusind convinced the investors that he is still well capitalizedcausing the shares to recover on Wednesday after they have fallen on Tuesday.
What happened in markets?
Indian shares continued their profit this week.
From 11.15. Local time on March 13, benchmark NIFTY 50 The index increased 0.21%, while the wider SENSEX index was 0.15% higher.
The reference 10-year-old Indian Government’s yield decreased slightly to 6.708%.
On CNBC TV this week, Pramod Gubbi, founder Marcellus Investment Managers, believes that reducing the Tax of the Indian Government in a recent Union budget is not “meaningful enough to move the needle” to Indian consumption supplies. This is partly because the country has experienced a “three years of strong consumption growth” after a pandemic, encouraged by banking loans of retail companies and consumers, which led to say that Gubbi was consumption. Therefore, Consumers save more to repay that debt and withdrawal on expenditures.
Meanwhile, President Maersk North America Charles Van der Steene tells CNBC Lori Ann Larocco that “tariffs will never disrupt the supply chain.” Although trade barriers can affect one aspect of a global supply chain, there will be other countries that will be compensated for to compensate for this disorder. India, especially, will retain its importance within the global supply chain Because the South Asian nation provides companies with production capacities as companies are diversifying from China due to Trump’s tariffs.
What happens next week?
India publishes information about its wholesale expense of prices for February on Monday, and market observers will come in cooler than expected, such as a monthly consumer prices index. Meanwhile, US federal reserves conclude their meeting on Wednesday, during which it is expected that interest rates will be stable.
March 14: Indian trade balance for February, Consumer Research for Consumer University of Michigan for March, UK Bruto Domestic product for January
March 17: Indian wholesale price index for February, China industrial production and retail for January until February, US retailer for February
March 19: The decision of the American interest rate, Consumer Index for February Euro Zone for February
March 20: China One- and five-year-old interest rate decision in the UK