Supercomputer predicts Premier League winner on Christmas Day 2024

Arne Slott’s Liverpool have been a dominant force in the Premier League in 2024/25, but history shows there is hope for their primary challengers.

AND Tottenham win 6-3 means the Reds sit top of the Premier League table for the seventh time on Christmas Day. They won the title only once. While Manchester City are currently in no position to compete again, that statistic will no doubt raise a few eyebrows in north and west London.

While Liverpool turn Christmas toppings into headlines at a poultry rate of 16.6%, 16 out of 32 Christmas tablecloths have done so. Still, the numbers show that the Reds’ current position, as commanding as it is, is far from inevitable come May 2025.

Much of the discourse at this time of year surrounds potential title winners, and City’s demise only adds to the intrigue in 2024. However, this Premier League is proving to be a bit bizarre and fascinating stories are emerging from up and down the table.

As it stands, we expect a few surprise European entrants, potentially even a continental debut, and mid-table indifference for members of the so-called ‘Big Six’. Unpredictability is spreading towards the relegation zone with newly-promoted players struggling to compete, but Wolves’ struggles could ensure relegation stories could creep into the series.

Here’s how Optina’s supercomputer predicts the final Premier League table for the 2024/25 season as it will look on Christmas Day.

Opta is convinced by Liverpool. They give the Reds an 86% chance of a second win Premier League title after extending their lead over second-placed Chelsea to four points at the weekend. They have a six-point better result than Arsenal, who Opta considers to be the biggest threat to Liverpool, and they have played a game less than their London rival.

The Gunners are currently third, but have a much better chance of winning the league than Enzo Maresca’s Blues. Opta gives Arsenal shot of 10.3% and Chelsea only a 3.1% chance.

Perennial champions Manchester City are seventh on Christmas Day and without any hope of winning a fifth consecutive title. Opta, however, has not completely given up on Pep Guardiola. They are the only team apart from those mentioned above that can boast more than a 0.01% chance of winning the title (0.6%).

The supercomputer is backing City to bounce back in the second half of the season and disagrees with Michael Owen’s assessment, impressively made long before their current awful run, that City will not finish in the top four. Opta gives Guardiola’s men a 43.9% chance of finishing fourth and a 76.4% chance of finishing in the top four.

Opta is more optimistic for Aston Villa and Newcastle than for Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest, but the latter pair could end the season with secured European football for the next term. Forest are predicted to finish seventh and Bournemouth eighth. The odds and domestic cup winners will decide whether eighth is enough for the Cherries to enjoy their first taste of continental action.

Tottenham and Manchester United can still finish in the top half, but both clubs would be left bitterly disappointed with respective ninth and tenth places.

London dominate the top half of the bottom half, while Everton look set for a year of comfort above the drop zone. Wolves are 18th at Christmas but Opta are backing new manager Vitor Pereira to guide the West Midlanders to safety. Wolves still have a 52.5% chance of going down, but Leicester (62%), Ipswich (76.9%) and Southampton (97.8%) have the edge over Pereira’s side. The Saints, who have just appointed Ivan Juric to succeed Russell Martin, have all but been relegated. Opta gives them a 77% chance of finishing bottom of the pile when all is said and done.

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