President Donald Trump suspended for 30 days, Jake tariffs to Mexico and Canada, which he threatened after Last-minute negotiations with two American neighbors.
It may point to concessions at the border and implementation of crime as a victory. But Canada Justin Trudeau and Mexico Claudia Sheinbaum can also seek political victories.
A trade war that would send economic striking waves through North America and is wider on hold – for now.
So who blink first and what’s going on next?
Trump brinkmanship seems to be worth it
Courtney Subramanian, BBC News, Washington DC
It seems that the confrontation of the high roles of President Trump with the closest trade partners of the United States have paid off, and Mexico and Canada have agreed to stricter border security and take larger steps to resolve the Fentanil trade.
The strategy for the exploitation of the US economy to force concessions from other countries achieves the victory for Trump’s agenda “America First”, allowing him to follow the basic domestic questions without US consumers feel the stab of economic consequences of continental trade war.
His tariff book is barely new.
Tariff Trump to steel and aluminum during his first term encouraged the return from Mexico, Canada and the European Union, but economists say these measures were limited to the scope.
This time, Trump promised to take care of the tariffs on the goods from Mexico and Canada, and China, which should still record an increase in a 10% tariff on the goods that starts at midnight on Tuesday.
But it remains unclear whether Trump will follow his threats to Canada and Mexico after a 30 -day deadline has been completed. This uncertainty arouses fears that could see how companies reduce their reliance on US markets, holding on investment in the construction of new factories or employment of workers until the trade Stank becomes clearer.
Lame-Duck TRUDEau pulls a trade trial
Jessica Murphy, BBC News, Toronto
It was not an Arctic explosion in January from the north – it was a widely widespread sigh of Canadian politician and business leaders in a 30 -day break on US tariffs.
While the threat of the tariff remains, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may request a political victory: a temporary truce in what was shaped as an devastating trade war.
Canadian politicians clashed to understand what exactly would satisfy Trump – a situation that did not help Canada’s domestic policy, and Trudeau ended up in power in recent weeks as a prime minister.
The border security measures announced on Monday is not all new.
In December, Canada announced $ 1.3 billion ($ 900 million; $ 700 million) in measures involving efforts to disrupt Fentanil trade, new law enforcement tools and improved coordination with US law implementation.
Canadian supervisory drones and two Black Hawk helicopters recently started patrolling the border between the two countries.
The officials have made these efforts for weeks to show that Trump’s care care is taken seriously.
It seems that the new element is the appointment of “Fentanil Cara” and an intelligence directive about $ 200 million to combat organized crime and fentanil.
One is a question that remains what it means for the future of Canada-US relationships. The partnership between the Allies deeply shook Trump’s economic threat.
Mexico’s Sheinbaum buys time
Will Grant, correspondent of BBC Central America and Cuba, Mexico City
Through this trade crisis, President Claudia Sheinbaum invited “cold heads” and “calm”.
She even said on Friday that she was convinced of the last minute a return from a 25% tariff to Mexican goods. And so it turned out, after an early morning phone call with President Trump.
An announcement of the agreement shortly after, she could barely wipe a smile from her face, and her fans announced what they see as a master class in a way of negotiating with Donald Trump.
Yes, she agreed to send the troops of the National Guard to the border to focus on the smuggling of the fental, but she also crucially provided what she wanted from Trump.
As well as the obvious-state on tariffs, she also forced Trump to “promise” to now make more to deal with the traffic of strong weapons from the US to Mexico, to prevent them from ending up in the craftsmen’s arms.
But she also bought another vital goods: time.
He now has a few weeks to build points agreed in that phone call and convert to the temporary posture of the tariff into a permanent.
The Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to visit Mexico soon to talk about these things and that a joint group on Fentanil with Mexican and US health and security officers will be established.
If Sheinbaum manages to prevent further hostility of trade, it will decrease as the first significant victory of her new government, because she has only been in power since October. And it can set a tone with future interactions with President Trump and its administration.
