Through nearly 16 months of war in Gaza, politicians and analysts discussed competitive proposals for post -war control, but no clear direction appeared while the fighting continued.
Now, as a fragile truce is held and as Israel and Hamas are preparing for negotiations for an extension of the tribute, four rival models for the future of Gaza have begun to be shaped.
Hamas, weakened but distrustful, continues to control most of the territory and tries to imprint that authority. According to terms, Israel should be withdrawn gradually from Gaza, but his troops still take up key parts. The right -wing Israeli leaders want their forces to expand this control, even if it means restarting war.
A group of foreign security performers offers another model. On the invitation of Israel, they run a checkpoint on a key road in northern Gaza, inspecting weapons vehicles. Some Israeli officials say that activity could develop into international management of a much wider area, which included Arab states instead of private contractors.
And in the south the representatives of Palestinian authorities began in the weekend Staff border crossing with Egyptwork with European security officers. The government, which lost control of Gaza to Hamas in 2007, hoped that it could repeat those efforts throughout the territory over time.
For now, it is unclear which template will become a dominant model. The outcome will probably depend largely on President Trump, who will talk about the future with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel on Tuesday in Wazin in Wazin. And Saudi Arabia could lean the scale if it first agreed to create formal connections with Israel – in exchange for a particular management structure in gauze.
Here’s what the models mean and what is likely to succeed.
Hamas government
When he has been hostage in recent weeks, Hamas set the point showing that the dominant Palestinian force on the ground remained. Hundreds of masked militants of Hamas gathered at every point of exit, projecting the feeling that the group, although torn in 16 months of war, is still in charge.
Hamas safety officials also re -appeared to confirm the semblance of orders throughout the territory, stopping and inspecting vehicles and trying to alleviate unexploded commands. Municipal officials also began to change the ruins.
For most Israelites, Hamas’s long -term presence is incomparable. Some might accept it if Hamas agreed to let go of all the remaining hostages that take place in Gaza. Others, especially on Israeli right, want to continue the war, even if it costs the lives of some of these prisoners to force Hamas.
If Hamas stays in power, the group will be difficult to renew the gauze without foreign support. Since many foreign donors are most likely to be careful if the Hamas does not step down, it is possible that the group willingly can give the authorities to the alternative Palestinian leadership, instead of continuing to preside over an unusual desolation. In conversations mediated by Egypt, Hamas envoys said they could hand over administrative responsibilities to the Palestinian Technocrats Committee, but it is unlikely that the group would be willing to disintegrate its armed wing even if it stopped leading civilians.
Israeli occupation
When the fire broke out last month, Israel retained control of the protective zone along the boundaries of a gauze, which is several hundred meters wide. In order to finish the war and ensure the release of all the hostages in Gaza, Israel must eventually be evacuated from this territory. But it is an unimaginably important members of Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition, which means that he can expand the interest of Israel, or even expand it to avoid the collapse of his government.
However, this, however, Mr. Netanyahu probably needed the support of Trump’s administration, who hinted that she wanted to see how the fire was expanded to allow every hostage to release. Returning to the war would also reduce any short-term chance of agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia-great international achievement that Mr. Netanyahu has long been craving.
International force
When the Israeli troops withdrew from most of the Netzarim corridor last week, the strategic areas that connect the northern and southern Gaza, enabled a group of foreign contractors to fill in the void. Led by Egyptian security guards, contractors in the north of the weapon traffic, hoping to slow down the efforts of Hamas to improve their militants in northern Gazi. Two US companies are included in the procedureBut it is unclear what role they play on the field.
For now, the procedure is a small trial that lacks formal involvement of Arab countries except Egypt and Qatar, two countries mediation between Israel and Hamas. But some Israeli officials say that it could be expanded – and in the sense of geography and responsibility – to cover administrative roles in the wider area, which supported publicly and financially leading Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Neither will seek a formal role without the blessing of Palestinian authorities.
Authority, forced by Hamas from Gaza in 2007, Still leads part of the west coast and is considered the only serious Palestinian alternative to Hamas. However, Israeli leaders consider authority corrupt and incompetent and they rejected the idea to give her a major role in Gaza, at least for now. Israeli law is also opposed to the empowerment of authority, as it does not appear as a credible state that awaits.
Palestinian administration
Accordingly, representatives of the authorities quietly began to work in the second part of Gaza over the weekend, suggesting that parts of Israeli leadership in practice can be more flexible about the involvement of power.
Israel allowed the officials of both the European Union and the Palestinian authorities to restart surgery at the transition of Rafah – the control point on the border between Gaza and Egypt. The transition has been closed since Israel was falling into the Rafah area last May.
A publicly Israeli government diminished the participation of the government to the control point, in part to avoid the anger of Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition.
But the operations in Rafah have encouraged speculation that Mr. Netanyahu, under the pressure of Mr. Trump and Arab leaders in the Bay, could roughly tolerate the wider role of authority, perhaps in partnership with foreign peacekeeping forces or performers.
