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Your guide for what American choices 2024 means for Washington and the world
Hours on the eve of the reinauguration of Donald Trump as the US President last week, Goldman Sachs hosted an annual investment summit in his London office, and one large so -called Trump store continued to restrain: dollar.
The new US president’s economic policy platform remains difficult to analyze or predict any kind of detail. But investors, especially speculative hedge funds, have quite got rid of the idea that Trump means a strong dollar – the result of American exceptionality, stubborn inflation or both.
For many clients, it is, such as one of the oldest bank dealers described by the managers of funds, “the most obvious store in the world”, especially in connection with Chinese Renminbia.
Later on the same day, Trump returned to the White House. On the way, at the inauguration ceremony, he returned to his precious Tariff’s topic – one of the key policies that corrupted his historic victory in his choice. This time, however, he came with a big problem for “obvious” trade: Trump directed his hardest intentions in Mexico and Canada, not Chinawhich previously suggested was the main target.
Reduce a significant jump in the Chinese currency that encouraged the dollar withdrawal to the entire plate. Euro, Sterling and Yen picked up from recent lowest levels – alarming development for dollar bulls.
This is far from the only SLAM-DUNK strategy for the president’s second break in the White House that has encountered early problems.
The message that was in Donald Trump’s reign was that his zeal for deregulation, low taxes and US goods for US consumers was all further positive for buying and holding American stocks in the preference of the rest of the world. The glaze on the cake is a revolution of artificial intelligence, forged in the USA -ui Dominate the US listing companies. Some investors see this as not only a commercial imperative, but also a strategic geopolitical imperative to comply with these topics as close as possible.
Then came the latest shock on the market: the appearance of Deepseek, a Chinese challenge for American artificial intelligence. It took some time to really go to the investor radar. But at the beginning of this week it did this with a bang, sending us technological stocks quickly. The market value of Nvidia itself sank for more than $ 600 billion – an unprecedented daily fall for one company. Remember: only seven US-Adjucent American shares make one-third of the entire S & P 500 reference index of US shares. If it turns out that the ditch around them, and especially around the nvidia chips, is not as wide or deep as investors hoped, this whole fairy tale Begins to resolve.
Société Générale Banka points out that without Nvidia and his four best customers – Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta – the entire US reference index was about 12 percent below where it is today. With “American exceptionalism in fullness”, such as Manish Kabra, head of US capital strategy at a bank, is a little wonder that wide US markets feel pain. The tilting towards the equally weighted S&P 500, not a standard version that favors the technological shares of the monster, makes sense here, he added.
The neglect of the market outside the US is also unreasonable. The main supplies indexes in Germany and the UK have achieved new record maximums since Trump has assumed his duty. Finally there is life in the rest of the world. But every challenge for us great technology has the power to seriously destabilize for all markets.
Tanging a dollar and unusual fluctuations of American stocks are an ugly blow for anyone who expected this to be a slight ride and a painful reminder that when it comes to money management in Trump 2.0, No one really knows anything. Whether you are Hedge Funds Manager or an amateur investor in this environment, keep your beliefs on your danger.
The Big Tech, a strong dollar and an American dominance over foreign sections, were all a beautiful, neat, satisfactory story that would follow the new Trump’s era, and the investors of all the railroads accepted it with great energy. “In addition to the Almighty, who has reached more in seven days than [president] ADUT? “This was followed by investor Bill Ackman in the X Post during the weekend.
Such is the haybel that causes the cringe to be difficult for the stomach, but it is quickly quickly considered what the selected will do in the next seven days, and seven days after that, and whether your portfolio can endure the pain of the “obvious” Trump stores.
