Analysis – Hamas’ tight grip on Gaza complicates plan for lasting peace Reuters writes
Nidal al-Mughrabi
CAIRO (Reuters) – In neighborhoods razed to the ground after 15 months of war with Israel, Hamas officials are overseeing the clearing of rubble after Sunday’s cease-fire. The group’s gunmen are guarding aid convoys on Gaza’s dusty roads, and blue-uniformed police are once again patrolling the city’s streets, sending a clear message: Hamas remains in charge.
Israeli officials have described the parade of jubilant Hamas fighters celebrating the ceasefire in front of enthusiastic crowds on Sunday as a carefully orchestrated attempt to exaggerate the strength of the Palestinian militant group.
But in the days since the ceasefire took effect, Gaza’s Hamas-led administration has moved quickly to restore security, curb looting and begin restoring basic services in parts of the enclave, parts of which the Israelis have turned into wasteland. offensive.
Reuters spoke to more than a dozen residents, officials, regional diplomats and security experts who said that despite Israel’s pledge to destroy it, Hamas remains deeply entrenched in Gaza and its hold on power poses a challenge to enforcing a permanent ceasefire. .
The Islamist group not only controls Gaza’s security forces, but its administrators run ministries and government agencies, pay employees’ salaries and coordinate with international NGOs, they said.
On Tuesday, its police and gunmen – kept off the streets for months by Israeli airstrikes – were stationed in neighborhoods along the Strip.
“We want to prevent any kind of security vacuum,” said Ismail Al-Thawabta, director of the Hamas-run Gaza government’s media office. He said around 700 police were protecting aid convoys and that not a single truck had been looted since Sunday – a contrast to the massive theft of food by criminal gangs during the conflict.
A United Nations spokesman in Geneva confirmed on Tuesday that there had been no reports of looting or attacks on aid workers since the ceasefire took effect.
In recent weeks, Israeli airstrikes have targeted lower-ranking administrators in Gaza, in an apparent attempt to break Hamas’s grip on the government. Israel has already eliminated the leadership of Hamas, including political leader Ismail Haniyeh and the architects of the October 7 attacks, Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif.
Despite the losses, Al-Thawabta said the Hamas-led administration continued to function. We currently have 18,000 employees who work every day to provide services to citizens, he said.
Hamas-run municipalities began clearing debris from some roads to passable vehicles on Sunday, as workers repaired pipes and infrastructure to restore running water to neighborhoods. On Tuesday, dozens of heavy trucks hauled debris from destroyed buildings along the enclave’s dusty main arteries.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not articulated a vision for Gaza’s post-war future except to insist that the Islamist group can play no role and to say that the Palestinian Authority — the body established under the Oslo peace accords three decades ago that partially governs the occupied West Bank — also cannot be trusted. under his current leadership. The Israeli government did not respond to questions from Reuters.
Joost Hiltermann, of the International Crisis Group, said that Hamas’ tight control of Gaza presents Israel with a dilemma.
“Israel has a choice, continue to fight in the future and kill people – and it has failed in the past 15 months – or it can allow a deal where the Palestinian Authority takes control with Hamas’ consent,” Hiltermann said.
Hamas’s military prowess is difficult to assess because its rocket arsenal remains hidden and many of its best-trained fighters may have been killed, Hiltermann said, but it remains by far the dominant armed group in Gaza: “No one is talking about the PA taking over Gaza without consent Hamas.”
While senior Hamas officials have expressed support for a unity government, Mahmoud Abbas, the head of the Palestinian Authority and a longtime opponent of Hamas, has not given his consent. Abbas’ office and the Palestinian Authority did not respond to a request for comment.
FRESH NEGOTIATIONS
Under the terms of the ceasefire, Israel must withdraw its troops from central Gaza and allow Palestinians to return to the north during an initial six-week phase, in which some hostages will be freed. Starting on the 16th day of the ceasefire, the two sides are expected to negotiate a second phase, which is expected to include a permanent ceasefire and the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops.
The renovation, which is expected to cost billions of dollars and take years, would not begin until the third and final phase.
The agreement caused divided opinion in Israel. While the return of the first three hostages was widely celebrated on Sunday, many Israelis want Hamas destroyed for its attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, in which 1,200 people were killed and more than 250 taken hostage.
Even before the cease-fire took effect, members of Netanyahu’s cabinet said they favored a return to war to remove Hamas from power, once the hostages were returned home. Three far-right ministers resigned.
“There is no future of peace, stability and security for both sides if Hamas remains in power in the Gaza Strip,” Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said on Sunday.
A spokesman for Hamas’ armed wing, Abu Ubaida, told Reuters the militant group would respect the terms of the ceasefire and called on Israel to do the same.
Fifteen months of war have left Gaza a wasteland of rubble, bombed-out buildings and makeshift camps, with hundreds of thousands of desperate people sheltering from the winter cold and living off hand-me-downs. More than 46,000 people were killed, according to Palestinian health authorities.
The ceasefire agreement calls for 600 aid trucks to reach Gaza per day. Al-Thawabta, a spokesman for the Hamas-run administration, said it was liaising with UN bodies and international humanitarian organizations regarding the security of aid routes and warehouses, but the agencies were managing aid distribution.
A UN damage assessment released this month found that just removing the more than 50 million tons of rubble left behind by the Israeli bombardment could take 21 years and cost up to $1.2 billion.
On Sunday, as Hamas security forces paraded through the streets, some residents expressed pride that he had survived the attack.
“Name me one country that could support the Israeli war machine for 15 months,” said Salah Abu Rezik, a 58-year-old factory worker. He praised Hamas for helping distribute aid to hungry Gazans during the conflict and trying to implement security measures.
“Hamas is an idea and you can’t kill an idea,” Abu Rezik said, predicting that the group would rebuild.
Others expressed anger that the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas brought destruction to Gaza.
“We had homes, hotels and restaurants. We had a life. Today we have nothing, so what kind of victory is this?” said Ameen, 30, a civil engineer from Gaza City, displaced in Khan Younis. “When the war ends, Hamas must not rule Gaza alone.”
WITHOUT RIVALS
Although the Palestinian Authority says it is the only authority with the legitimacy to rule post-war Gaza, it has no presence in the enclave and has little popular support, polls show.
Since 2007, when Hamas ousted the Palestinian Authority dominated by rival faction Fatah after a brief civil war, it has crushed the opposition in Gaza. Aided by funds from Iran, it has built a formidable security apparatus and military organization based on a vast network of tunnels – much of which Israel says it destroyed during the war.
Israel has floated tentative ideas for a post-war Gaza, including co-opting local clan leaders – several of whom Hamas promptly killed – or using members of Gaza’s civil society without militant ties to run the enclave. But none of them took effect.
Key donors, including the United Arab Emirates and the new administration of US President Donald Trump, have stressed that Hamas – designated a terrorist organization by many Western countries – cannot remain in power in Gaza after the war.
Diplomats have discussed models involving international peacekeeping forces, including one in which the United Arab Emirates and the United States, along with other nations, would temporarily oversee the governance, security and reconstruction of Gaza until a reformed Palestinian Authority is able to take over.
Another model, backed by Egypt, envisions a joint committee made up of Fatah and Hamas governing Gaza under the supervision of the Palestinian Authority.
Michael Milshtein, a former Israeli military intelligence officer now at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies in Tel Aviv, described Hamas’s public willingness to discuss a unity government as “cosmetic.”
“As long as they’re behind the scenes, dealing with things, they don’t care that there’s going to be a commission as a front,” he said.
On Monday, shortly after taking office, Trump expressed skepticism about the Gaza ceasefire agreement, when asked if he was confident that all three phases of the deal would be implemented. He did not elaborate further.
A spokesman for the Trump camp did not respond to a request for comment.