Does the conviction of Imran Khan jeopardize the negotiations between the Pakistani government and the PTI? | Imran Khan news

Islamabad, Pakistan – When Omar Ayub Khan, the leader of the opposition and a member of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), presented the party’s charter of demands to Ayaz Sadiq, the speaker of the country’s National Assembly, on Thursday, it appeared that the long-running impasse between the government and the country’s most popular party could be resolved. finally solve.

However, just 24 hours later, there was Imran Khan, former Prime Minister and founder of PTI sentenced to 14 years in prison before a responsible court on charges of abuse of power and corruption.

The two sides opened talks late last year on several contentious issues, including the release of jailed PTI leaders – whom the party labels “political prisoners” – and the resolution of alleged electoral fraud in last year’s election. controversial elections.

Three rounds of talks have been held so far, moderated by National Assembly Speaker Sadiq, and the PTI presented its charter of demands at the last meeting.

The government is expected to respond to these requests within seven days. Still, Khan’s conviction has reignited concerns that the political unrest of the past three years could return, plunging Pakistan back into chaos as the country grapples with a security and economic crisis.

Aasiya Riaz, joint director of independent think tank Pakistan Institute for Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT), stressed the importance of continued dialogue.

“Talks aimed at meaningful results, for the good of the country, must continue,” she told Al Jazeera.

“Both sides, the establishment-backed government and the PTI, could go back to their pressure and agitation tactics. This would lead to chaos and uncertainty, but in the end they would have to return to the negotiating table,” added Riaz.

Once a favorite, now a pariah

Imran Khan was ousted in April 2022 by a parliamentary vote of no confidence. He claimed a conspiracy between Pakistan’s powerful military, his political rivals and the United States to remove him from power.

The military, considered the most influential power broker in Pakistan, has ruled the country directly for almost three of the 76 years since independence. Although no prime minister in Pakistan’s history has completed his term, three of the four military dictators have ruled for nearly a decade each.

Khan, who was once seen as enjoying the support of the military, came to power in August 2018 before falling out of favor.

Both the US and the military denied his accusations, but his ouster prompted a significant crackdown on the PTI, with Khan leading multiple long marches and protests against the establishment, as the military is euphemistically called in Pakistan.

Things fell into place May 9, 2023, when Khan was briefly imprisoned in the The case of Al-Qadir Trust – the corruption case in which Khan was convicted on Friday.

His release within two days did little to quell the unrest as PTI supporters rampaged across the country, targeting public buildings, military offices and facilities, including the military headquarters in Rawalpindi.

Thousands of PTI members were arrested and more than 100 were tried under martial law, with more than 80 sentenced to a prison term of three to ten years. Khan also faces charges of inciting sedition and “terrorism” related to the events.

Challenges of negotiation

Despite setbacks, including Khan’s arrest in August 2023 and legal obstacles to the PTI’s participation in the elections, the party’s candidates secured the largest number of seats in the February elections.

However, with Khan behind bars, the PTI leadership staged several protests in Islamabad, pressuring Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government to release him.

In November, the PTI launched a march to Islamabad, calling it a “last call”. Clashes with the police dispersed the march, or so the PTI claimed 12 of his workers killed, which the government denies.

In its written set of demands, the PTI appears to be backing away from its insistence on nullifying the election results.

But the party called on the government to form two separate investigation teams, with a mandate to investigate the events of May 9, 2023 and November 26 – the day of the march on Islamabad – last year. He also continued to press for the release of his “political prisoners”.

PTI Central Committee Member Abuzar Salman Niazi clarified the party’s stand.

“We are not asking for executive orders to release people. We demand an end to judicial interference. If someone has been granted bail, they should not be arrested in a new case immediately afterwards,” Niazi told Al Jazeera.

Negotiations will continue, Niazi added, noting that the current demands are just the beginning.

“The government has been offered an opportunity to take action on these soft demands. There are other demands ahead, but they are just the beginning and we want to see government action to launch these investigations into the incidents of May 9 and November 26,” he added.

Aqeel Malik, the government’s legal affairs spokesman, said he was also optimistic about ongoing negotiations, despite Khan’s conviction.

“Court proceedings and dialogue are separate things. We have seven days to respond to PTI’s demands and the prime minister has already formed a team to assess them,” Malik told Al Jazeera.

Reconciliation or dead end?

Some analysts believe the PTI’s demands represent an uphill battle and give the government an opportunity for conciliation.

Ahmed Ijaz, an Islamabad-based political analyst, noted that dropping PTI’s grievances about the February 2024 elections could facilitate negotiations.

“This allows the government to position itself as an advocate of stability,” Ijaz said.

On the other hand, political commentator Fahd Husain said the PTI’s demands seem “quite impractical” at this stage.

“Both commissions they are looking for are like indictments, and many related matters are already in court,” Husain told Al Jazeera.

Malik, the government’s legal spokesperson, stressed the need for clarity in PTI’s demands.

“For example, the PTI says that political prisoners should be released, but they have never given us any list of who they mean. It appears to be an open matter, involving people who were involved in the May 9 or November 26 incidents. So I think this is in the early stages, but we have seven days to work on them,” he added.

“Positive development”

Over the past three years, Khan has repeatedly accused the military, especially the top general Syed Asim Munirthat he is responsible for the state of his party.

Despite the military’s insistence that political negotiations are not its domain, the recent meeting between current PTI chairman Gohar Ali Khan (no relation to Imran Khan) and Munir in Peshawar has raised eyebrows.

The PTI hailed the meeting as a “positive development” and claimed that demands were made to Munir. However, military sources said the meeting focused solely on Security of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a PTI-ruled province, borders Afghanistan and has witnessed a series of attacks that Pakistan blames on armed groups seeking refuge in Afghanistan.

But government officials, who are also part of the negotiating team, attacked the “politicization” of the meeting with the army chief.

“There are no direct talks outside the government’s negotiating team,” Senator Irfan Siddiqui asserted at a press briefing in Islamabad on Thursday.

Ijaz, an Islamabad-based analyst, however, sees the meeting as significant.

“If the dialogue with the army has started, then the cases and convictions against Khan become irrelevant,” he said.

The way forward

But mistrust between the PTI, the government and the military could still derail the talks, analysts warn.

The consequences, says PTI’s Niazi, will leave the party with no option but to continue its aggressive stance and go back into agitation mode.

“What other option do you think we have, other than to go back to the streets and protest? We try to conduct negotiations keeping in mind the common good of the country and the public, but the responsibility lies with the Government. They have to show a bigger role to make the dialogue successful,” said the Lahore-based PTI leader.

However, the Islamabad-based Husain said the only hope that could “substantially” change things in Pakistan would be signals from Washington, DC, where Donald Trump is expected to be sworn in as president on Monday.

“If Donald Trump administration intervenes, it could help PTI. Otherwise, the party seems to have run out of options,” he said.