The draft Gaza ceasefire and hostage release agreement currently being discussed by Israel and Hamas in indirect talks in Doha has been on the table since May. So why is there a new expectation that it might work, after being frozen for eight months of war?
There are several things that have changed – both politically and on the ground.
The first is the election of Donald Trump as the next president of the USA.
He has threatened that “all hell” would break out. if the hostages are not released before he takes office on January 20.
Hamas may take this as a sign that even the tenuous brakes the Biden administration used to try to rein in the Israeli government will be lifted, though it’s hard to imagine what that might mean for a territory already so devastated by 15 months of war.
Israel is also feeling pressure from the incoming president to end the conflict in Gaza, which threatens to hamper Trump’s hopes of securing a broader regional deal and his desired image of a war-ending president.
On the other hand, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces continued pressure from his far-right coalition allies to continue the war.
But Trump could also be an asset to him in convincing allies to swallow the deal and stay in government; The new US president and the man he picked as Israel’s ambassador are believed to support Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, which Israel’s far-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, said he wanted to join.
But after last night’s meeting with the prime minister, Smotrich seemed unconvinced, writing on social media that the current deal was a “disaster” for Israel’s national security and that he would not support it.
Some in Israel, however, believe that both Smotrich and his far-right ally, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, see their current role in the Israeli government as their best opportunity to consolidate control over the West Bank, especially with Trump back in the White House, and that he is unlikely to follow through on his threats to leave.
Another thing that has changed is the increasing pressure on Netanyahu from within his own military establishment.
Rumor has it that key figures challenged him on several occasions for diminishing military objectives in the continuation of the war, after the assassination of the top leadership of Hamas and the decimation of Gaza.
Last week, 10 Israeli soldiers were killed in Gaza, shining a fresh spotlight on the cost of war to Israel and the perennial question of whether the “total victory” over Hamas promised by Netanyahu is achievable.
Some analysts now suggest that Hamas is rebuilding faster than Israel is defeating it, and therefore Israel must rethink its strategy.
There is a third – regional – change that also affects changing expectations: the weakening and erosion of Hamas’ allies in the Iran’s “Axis of Resistance”from Hezbollah in Lebanon to Bashar al-Assad in Syria, along with the assassination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza.
For all these reasons, now is seen as the best opportunity in months to bridge the gap between Israel and Hamas and end the war.
What hasn’t changed in the eight months since they last negotiated are the gaps between them.
Key among them is the direct conflict between the core concern of Hamas, which wants to end the war, and Israel, which wants to keep the door open to a continuation of the conflict, whether for political or military reasons.
agreement, as outlined by President Joe Biden in Mayit is divided into three phases, with the permanent ceasefire coming into effect only in the second phase.
Success is now likely to depend on whether guarantees can be found to ease Hamas fears that Israel will withdraw from the deal after the first phase of the hostage release.
Questions about how to manage the territory from which Israel is withdrawing are also unclear at this stage.
But the web of diplomacy that has crisscrossed the region in the past week and the fact that Netanyahu sent the heads of Israel’s security agencies to Doha for talks, along with a key political adviser, are encouraging signs.
So is the trip to Doha of the coordinator for Palestinian detainees, Qadoura Fares.
The agreement has not yet been concluded – and the talks were already falling apart.
This old deal raises new hopes in part because the negotiations are taking place in a new regional context, with growing pressures both at home and from key allies abroad.
