The headquarters of Moderna Inc. in Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA, on Tuesday, March 26, 2024.
Adam Glanzman | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Modern on Monday cut its 2025 sales guidance by roughly $1 billion due to several potential headwinds later this year as the biotech company continues to cut costs and expand its portfolio.
Moderna now expects revenues in 2025 between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, most of which will come in the second half of the year. Most of those sales will come from Moderna’s Covid vaccine and the recently launched vaccine for respiratory syncytial virusit is stated in the press release.
The guidelines are lower than the previous ones prognosis ranging from 2.5 to 3.5 billion dollars issued in September. At the time, the company said it expected profitability based on operating cash in 2028 — pushed back from 2026 — with $6 billion in revenue.
Moderna shares fell 18% in premarket trading on Monday.
“As we move into 2025, there are several uncertainties that we plan for,” Moderna CFO Jamey Mock told CNBC. “As of this time period, we plan for them to be winds. They could be winds, but now we see them as winds.”
Mock highlighted four factors that could affect sales, including increased competition in the Covid market. He said Moderna’s share of the US retail market for Covid vaccines fell to 40% at the end of 2024 from 48% in 2023, and the company is poised for another decline this year.
He remarked Sanofi will co-commercialize NovavaxThe worldwide Covid vaccine under a new agreement, which could potentially make the injection more competitive.
Mock said another factor is declining vaccination rates, which overall fell about 7% in the U.S. retail market in the fall of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. The final two factors are timing around manufacturing contracts with several countries and uncertainty about what Centers for Disease Control and Prevention counselors will recommend for RSV revaccination.
But Mock noted that the company expects to reduce cash costs by $1 billion in 2025, with plans for additional cost reductions in 2026 of $500 million.
“We’re taking on the right amount of expenses to preserve our cash,” Mock said. “We are excited to invest and diversify our portfolio.”
The announcement comes as Moderna charts a path forward following a rapid decline in demand for its Covid vaccine, its only commercially available product until its RSV injection hit the market last year. It also comes on the eve of Moderna’s presentation at the annual JPMorgan Healthcare Conferenceone of the largest gatherings of healthcare executives in the world and a hub for industry deals.
Revenue from Moderna’s two recordings met 2024 forecasts of around $3 billion to $3.1 billion. In November, the company announced its updated Covid vaccine used from getting US approval three weeks earlier than the previous iteration of the 2023 recording.
However, that sales represents a big drop compared to 6.7 billion dollars that the Modern Covid injection was booked in 2023 and the $18 billion it generated in 2022, as fewer people rolled up their sleeves for the updated jabs.
Moderna plans to boost its portfolio with 10 new product approvals over the next three years, including a combination of Covid and flu vaccines and “next-generation” Covid vaccines. The company said Monday it could see three approvals in 2025 alone.
The company is betting on a pipeline built around its messenger RNA platform, which is the technology used in its Covid and RSV vaccine.
