Investing.com– Stifel analysts said in a recent note that logistics and freight companies with exposure to North American trade are likely to see limited impact from President-elect Donald Trump’s plans for higher trade tariffs.
But the brokerage sees risks for shipping companies moving east and across the Pacific, given that Trump has promised increased trade controls against several Asian economies, particularly China.
Trump has promised to introduce tariffs from “day one” of his presidency, and is set to take office next week, on January 20.
Bottom line, Stifel said the tariffs are expected to drag on global cargo demand, likely heralding higher shipping costs that will be passed on to consumers.
China is expected to be the worst affected by this trend, with trade flows from China likely to decline further in the coming years, hurting the country’s already struggling economy. Trump has also threatened to target imports from Canada and Mexico.
But Stifel analysts said the tariffs on Canada and Mexico “probably won’t stick,” given that the U.S. manufacturing industry still relies heavily on materials from the two.
The brokerage house presented a favorable view on domestic and North American cargo transportation providers, and noted increased risk for companies exposed to China and the East.
“We believe that domestic manufacturing capacity in the US either cannot, or will take a very long time to displace current overseas capacity, this game is more or less zero sum; in short: things have to come from somewhere.”
Among individual stocks, Stifel said it saw a favorable setup for GXO logistics Inc (NYSE: ) after weak 2025
FedEx Corporation (NYSE: ) and Unified plot Service Inc (NYSE: ) is expected to see increased risk due to their international exposure.
But the brokerage flagged the prospect of an increase in “nearshoring,” the practice of engaging in trade with geographically closer countries to offset cost increases.
In addition to GXO, Stifel said UPS and CSX Corporation (NASDAQ: ) will also benefit from increased nearshoring. The brokerage has Buy ratings for all three stocks.
