Last year was disastrous for the environment and climate change. United Nations-backed negotiations to combat biodiversity, desertification, plastic pollution and climate change have either failed or led to grossly inadequate agreements. The re-election of Donald Trump for another term in the United States has signaled that opposition to climate action will only intensify.
All this happened in a year that broke the record for the hottest and for the first time average global temperatures exceeded the limit of the Paris Agreement: 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
As we enter 2025, the prospects for meaningful climate action appear bleak. But the anti-climate policies of Trump 2.0 and the intransigence of other big state and corporate polluters could also start the rest of the world’s momentum for radical change. Indeed, 2025 could open up space for the Global South to initiate climate action and it only makes sense that Brazil – as host of this year’s COP30 – leads the way.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was returned to power two years ago with promises of social and environmental change. However, after initial successes, his administration lost momentum. This year could be Lula’s last chance to deliver on his promises, take a global leadership role in the fight against climate change, and ensure that his legacy as a changemaker goes beyond Brazil’s borders.
Broken promises
During his presidential campaign, Lula strongly emphasized his rejection of the anti-environmental and anti-minority policies of his right-wing predecessor Jair Bolsonaro and promised to reverse them, focusing on preserving the Amazon and protecting vulnerable communities, including indigenous people.
After his victory, he appointed climate activist Marina Silva to head the Ministry of the Environment, and indigenous leader Sonia Guajajara to head the new Ministry of Indigenous Affairs. At his inauguration on January 1, 2023, he walked with prominent indigenous leader Chief Raoni, who has become a symbol of the fight to preserve the Amazon rainforest.
Three weeks later, he visited the Yanomami community, which had been devastated by land grabbing, violence by illegal miners and loggers, food insecurity and disease. He called their condition genocide and promised to take immediate measures.
Climate change has also become a pillar of his foreign policy. At COP28 in Dubai in 2023, where countries from the Global South sought to make progress on climate action, Lula said: “Brazil is willing to lead by example.”
There have been some initial achievements. In the first six months of Lula’s presidency, Deforestation in the Amazon has decreased by 33.6 percent. The police and army were deployed to crack down on illegal mining and within months there was sharp decline in the number of illegal mines operating. In May, Brazil’s Institute for the Environment and Renewable Natural Resources issued a ban on oil exploration off the coast of the Amazon Delta.
But Lula’s government failed to sustain the momentum. Security operations against illegal miners have slowed down, allowing them to continue their activities. Mortality rate among Yanomami children continued to increase and indigenous communities continued to suffer.
The progress achieved in deforestation began to slow down, and in August 2024, deforestation rates rose again. In the meantime, the expansion of land for agriculture and animal husbandry did not stop; that’s all moved in the Cerrado savanna, where deforestation is not in the headlines like the Amazon.
Meanwhile, Lula’s administration pushed for the completion of the BR-319 highway, which should connect the northern states of Amazonas and Roraima with other parts of Brazil. Construction cuts through the Amazon and would have a disastrous effect on the environment and indigenous communities.
Lula also spoke publicly in favor of oil exploration off Brazil’s coast as Brazil faced some of its worst flooding and wildfires. His government’s actions on the issue have also been criticized.
From January to October, wildfires swept through Brazil, destroying large swaths of the Amazon rainforest and the Pantanal and devastating indigenous communities; about 37.42 million hectares, or about 15.1 million hectares, burned. Despite the unprecedented scale of the crisis, Lula did not declare a state of emergency, which would have helped local governments more easily access federal resources to deal with the crisis.
Last chance to act
When Trump returns to the White House in Washington, he will surely make good on his promises to roll back environmental regulations and clear the way for dirty industries to pollute as much as they want. Other rich countries and corporations are already withdrawing their own climate commitments.
In this environment of complete disregard for the ongoing climate catastrophe and the suffering of those most affected by it, the world needs a leader who can take decisive action. For two years now, Lula has been giving wonderful speeches about the need to act on climate change, the need to protect the poor and the need to clarify those responsible for the climate disaster and those who bear its burden.
It’s time for him to put his words into action. It is time for him to lead by example, as he stated back in 2023. All human and natural resources are at his disposal for this.
Brazil is home to the largest rainforest in the world and nearly 1.7 million indigenous people who know how to protect and care for nature. They know what needs to be done to preserve this extraordinary carbon sink, since they have the smallest carbon footprint of all of us. They should be made part not only of the urgent action needed to protect their communities, but also of Brazil’s overall climate and environmental policy.
Listening to indigenous people, as well as a host of environmental experts and activists, some of whom are already in Lula’s administration, would mean the president would have to give up some of his traditional ties to big capital.
Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) is known for its dependence on fossil fuels. It’s time to put an end to it. Although Brazil’s public oil company, Petrobras, is an important economic player, it should not dictate the government’s environmental and economic policies. Given how low the cost of establishing renewable energy production is, Brazil can invest in the massive expansion of wind and solar. Petrobras is already making such investments; instead of insisting on further oil drilling, it can double down on solar and wind and become the nation’s leading renewable energy company.
Lula will also need to break free from the toxic influence of Big Agribusiness. There is a way to grow and raise livestock without deforestation and pollution. Pushing this industry to adopt sustainable, green practices will not destroy it; this would make it more resilient to the inevitable climate disasters that will hit the country.
The same applies to the mining sector. Lula’s government has already made some efforts to regulate it and eradicate illegal practices, but it must go all the way. Illegal mining in indigenous territories and nature reserves must be eliminated.
The government could set up a task force involving federal and state law enforcement agencies with the intelligence branch and the military to focus on the issue. They could recruit not only native people to help them, but also all those impoverished people who were drawn into illegal mining due to unemployment. Eradicating illegal mining would not only preserve the rainforest and protect indigenous communities, but also deal a heavy blow to organized crime.
Indeed, a strong climate and nature conservation policy will benefit not only the natural environment but also the citizens of Brazil. They would open up more job opportunities that are secure and dignified – which is the main demand of the PT electoral base.
Leading radical change at home would give Lula more credibility to do so on the global stage. Words backed by actions can have a powerful effect. At a time when people around the world feel abandoned by their political elites, showing commitment to climate action and the welfare of vulnerable communities can mobilize millions and create enough momentum to move inert governments. This could be Lula’s global legacy if he has the courage to pursue it.
The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.
