Chad’s presidency under attack: coup attempt, Boko Haram or ‘drunk’ fighters? | Conflict news

N’Djamena, Chad – The capital of Chad is still struggling deadly gun battles broke out on Wednesday evening between the security forces and more than a dozen armed fighters who brazenly stormed the presidential palace. At least 19 people were killed.

Businesses and schools were open as usual on Thursday and most people went to work, but security was heightened on the streets of N’Djamena – a city already teeming with soldiers. Army tanks were scattered around the center of the city, and the roads leading to the palace complex were closed.

The attack comes weeks after the controversy parliamentary electionsin which the opposition parties boycotted the vote. They accused the military-turned-civilian government of President Mahamat Idriss Deby of trying to legitimize his rule.

The attack also followed Chad’s surprise deportation of hundreds of French soldiers in December. France, a former colonial power and close ally, has operated military bases in the country for decades.

Conflicting reports about who the attackers might be have been circulating on social media since Wednesday, adding to the confusion as government officials try to downplay the threat. Here’s what we know:

What happened?

A group of 24 men armed to the teeth attacked the president’s office at around 20:45 (1945 GMT) on Wednesday, government spokesman and Foreign Minister Abderaman Koulamallah said, speaking on Chadian state television.

The men were armed with knives, not guns, he said. At least 18 attackers were killed in the ensuing firefight, while one member of the Chadian security forces was also killed. Three other security officials were injured, the minister added, two of them seriously.

Videos of the shooting show bloodied bodies on the floor near the white pickup truck. Koulamallah said the attackers were killed after they managed to penetrate the camp surrounding the presidency.

“I was impressed by the military schedule. We have a very good army, and Chadians can sleep peacefully. Our country is well guarded,” he said.

President Deby was in the presidential compound at the time of the attack. A few hours before that, at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Deby met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who was in the country on a state visit.

At least six people have been arrested in connection with the attack, although it is not yet clear who they are. The minister said that investigations are ongoing.

Why is the country tense?

The landlocked Central African nation has long experienced instability in the form of rebel movements, armed groups and coups. Although Chad is rich in oil, its stagnant economy and harsh climate put it on the list of the poorest countries in Africa.

Those who come to power often work hard to suppress rebellions by handing out jobs to former rebels and members of the political opposition, Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel program at the German think tank Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS), told Al Jazeera. “Chad’s budget is spent on patronage to ensure the survival of the government,” he said.

Deby, an army general, took power in April 2021 after rebels killed the powerful president – ​​his father, Idriss Deby Itno – on the battlefield. Before his death, the elder Deby ruled Chad with an iron hand for 30 years.

Although the military government promised and fulfilled the elections, the tenure of the younger Deby has been characterized by turbulence. He has struggled to attract public support in the country, as many believe he unconstitutionally seized power and only extended the Deby dynasty. Experts describe his government’s December decision to expel French troops as a way to win support in the middle widespread anti-French sentiments in the former West African and Central African colonies.

Deby’s government has also been accused of a crackdown: after young people and opposition parties took to the streets in October 2022 to protest the postponement of promised elections, security forces crushed them, killing 128 people and arresting many more.

In May 2024, Deby swept the presidential election, winning more than 60 percent of the vote to the ire of opposition groups who described the exercise as a sham.

In December, the country held controversial parliamentary elections for the first time since 2015. Although government officials hailed the vote as a key step toward ending military rule, it was marred by low turnout and opposition accusations of fraud. Several political parties boycotted the vote.

Who attacked and what do the authorities say?

There are several conflicting theories about who may be responsible for Wednesday’s attack. Some have blamed the armed group Boko Haram, while others say it could be a military coup.

Boko Haram fighters have launched incursions into the country since 2013, operating from their base in the Lake Chad basin, which Chad shares with Nigeria, Niger and Cameroon.

Although the group was originally founded in Nigeria, porous borders have allowed it to expand its operations. In 2015, Boko Haram suicide bombers targeted police buildings and markets in N’Djamena in a series of attacks. More than 50 people were killed and more than 100 were wounded.

Security sources told the AFP and Reuters news agencies that Wednesday’s attack was likely carried out by a group.

“It wouldn’t be far-fetched for Boko Haram to try to do this, even though this is a major security lapse in the palace,” Beverly Ochieng, a Senegal-based security analyst at Control Risks, an intelligence firm, told Al Jazeera.

“They may want to retaliate against Operation Haskanite,” she added, referring to the security operation President Deby personally launched in October. The goal is to find and neutralize hundreds of Boko Haram fighters who attacked and killed more than 40 Chadian soldiers in the Lake Chad Basin area on October 28.

However, government officials downplayed the Boko Haram theory. In an interview with Chadian state radio and television hours after the attack, spokesman Koulamallah said the attackers were “probably not” members of Boko Haram or part of an organized armed group. Instead he described them as drunken “Pieds Nickeles” – a reference to a French comic strip depicting hapless con artists.

But it would be difficult for a random pair of thieves to attack the seat of power in N’Djamena. Every day the city is full of soldiers in camouflage suits with weapons in their hands hanging from military trucks.

Could it be other armed groups?

Several other armed groups threaten the stability of Chad, particularly the Front for Change and Concord rebel fighters in Chad (FACT)which is located near the Libyan border.

The group, led by longtime rebel Mahamat Mahadi Ali, aims to topple the Chadian government under Deby.

Late President Deby succumbed to his wounds killed during a battle against rebels as they pushed towards N’Djamena in 2021.

At the time, FACT vowed to strike again after the younger Deby took over. “Chad is not a monarchy,” the group said in a statement posted online. “There can be no dynastic devolution of power in our country,” the statement added, and FACT threatened to oust the new leader.

On the other hand, Ochieng said, reports of a coup may also be credible.

Wednesday’s attacks could be an “inside job” aimed at “assassining President Deby” and seizing power, she added.

Coups are not uncommon in Chad. The late Deby took power by overthrowing the dictator Hissene Habre.

In 2008, thousands of fighters from the Union Forces for Democracy and Development (UFDD) rebel group led by Mahamat Nouri attacked N’Djamena to oust Deby, but were repulsed.

Did the withdrawal of French troops cause a vacuum?

Analysts say Chad is likely to face more such attacks. Armed groups could try to take advantage of the security vacuum that could open up as French troops continue to withdraw from the country.

Although Chad signed an agreement with Hungary in October and is expected to welcome 200 Hungarian soldiers to support and train local forces, it is not clear when the Hungarians will arrive.

Chad is in a “fragile” state, Laessing said. “Deby asking the French to leave in December was a gamble. This gave him a boost in popularity,” he said. “But clearly the French military was the main protection the regime had, not only with its force presence, but also with intelligence sharing.”

Former French colony hosted the last French military bases in the Sahel, but ended defense and security agreements with Paris at the end of November, calling them “outdated”. About 1,000 French military personnel were stationed in the country and are in the process of withdrawing after France fell out with three other Sahel countries run by military governments hostile to Paris: Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.

Ochieng said the fact that Chad is downplaying the Boko Haram attacks could mean some officials could blame an outside actor for sabotaging their efforts.

“I imagine there will be opportunistic groups that will try to make it seem like France is sabotaging Chad,” she said. “We saw similar claims in Niger, Burkina Faso, right after their coups and demands that French forces leave.”